智能科学与智能技术

当今智能科学与智能技术是科技界的一个热点。在这方面有很多争议。有些学者怀疑智能技术前景，将现有“智能系统”与人相比，根本上否定有什么智能，认为只不过是一套专用软件。有的则过份乐观，我们认为过份悲观或过份乐观都是错误的，这里首先要区分智能科学与智能技术。前者是研究人所具有的自然现象，后者是开发一种技术去替代人的某些脑力劳动。其次，应正确认识现有智能技术方法的局限性。

CIMS仿真环境设计

本文介绍CIMS仿真环境设计过程,对CIMS设计方法和功能结构进行了研究,提出了具有特色的计算机软硬件配置结构。本系统开发为实际CIMS的设计开发提供了理论与经验,也为各种CIMS单元技术的研究和CIMS集成方法的研究提供了实验环境。

辽河坳陷东部凹陷火山岩构造裂缝形成机理研究及预测

In recent years, with the discovery oil and gas reservoirs in volcanic rocks, the exploration and development of these reservoirs have attracted widespread attention because of the urgent need for increasing oil and gas production in the world and volcanic rocks has currently become an important exploration target in Liaohe depression. The study area of this dissertation is in the middle section of the easternern sag of Liaohe depression that have been confirmed by studying structural fractures, which constitute a key factor impacting volcanic rocks reservoirs. Substantial reserves and large production capacity in the areas with widely distributed volcanic rocks are important reasons for examining volcanic rocks in the study area. The study began with classification and experimental data analysis of volcanic rocks fractural formation, then focused on the mechanism of fracturing and the development of volcanic rocks structural fracture prediction methodology.and Lastly, predicted volcanic rocks structural fracture before drilling involved a comprehensive study of the petroleum geology of this area, which identified favorable traps thereby reducing exploration risks and promoting the exploration and development of volcanic rocks reservoirs. 3Dstress and 3Dmove software were applied to predict structural fracture by combining the core data, well-logging data and seismic data together and making the visualization of a fracture possible. Base on the detailed fracture prediction results, well OuO48 and well Ou52 were drilled and successfully provided a basis for high efficiency exploration and development of fractured reservoir in the middle section of the eastern sag. As a result of what have been done, a new round of exploration of volcanic rocks was developed. Well OU48 and well OU52 successfully drilled in this area resulted in the in-depth study of the mechanism of structural fracture formation, technological innovation of structural fracture prediction of volcanic rocks , which guided to oil and gas exploration effectively and made it possible for high production of volcanic rocks. By the end of August 2005, the cumulative oil and gas production of Ou48 block were 5.1606 × 104 t and 1271.3× 104 m3 respectively, which made outstanding contributions to the oilfield development. Above all this work not only promoted exploration and structural fracture prediction in volcanic rocks in Liaohe depression, but also applied to in the low-permeability and fractured sandstone reservoir.

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

面向决策支持的综合地质信息系统功能开发和GIS应用

Synthetic Geology Information System(SGIS) is a part of the theory of Engineering Geomechanics-mate-Synthetics(EGMS), is also a development of its technical methodology. SGIS includes ways of geology engineering investigation, design, and construction. Although SGIS has an integrate theory frame, and some parts of it have gained great progress, the completion of SGIS is a continuous and accumulative process. This paper analyses the ways and principle of building knowledge database and model database, summarizes the experts' experience on exploration methods selection and the characters of exploration models, combining with the application of Decision Support System(DSS) in Decision support of Synthetic Exploration Methods for Railway engineering Geology. By the analysis of hierarchy structure of the model database, the effects of geology engineering factors on the selection of exploration methods are expressed. By the usage of fuzzy patterns recognize, hierarchy structure analysis, fuzzy collection closement analysis etc, the software of DSS for engineering design and construction are developed. At same time, by the development of Monitoring Data Analysis System and experiment data management system of Hydro-power project, this paper discussed the data management of science experiment of Hydro-power project by the usage of synthetic database and the usage of Geography Information System(GIS) and DSS technics. The technic of visual operation of data process and project monitoring system are presented. The intelligence algorithm of self-adoption is carried out to improve the data process and analysis of monitoring. Items of the project theoretical analysis and data process are designed in detail. All the theory and technical methods presented in this paper are one part of SGIS, in which the application of DSS and GIS, is an important step of the progress and completion of SGIS.