A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model and ENSO prediction study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area (1A degrees x1A degrees) for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3A degrees N/138A degrees E. The nearest TAO (TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array) mooring to the center is at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer, if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand, if the situation does like the one before 1970, the representative station is determined at 13A degrees S/74A degrees E with relatively poor correlation, meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.

Prediction of marine sediment corrosion by fuzzy clustering analysis

Along with the development of marine industries, especially marine petroleum exploitation, more and more pipelines are buried in the marine sediment. It is necessary and useful to know the corrosion environment and corrosiveness of marine sediment. In this paper, field corrosion environmental factors were investigated in Liaodong Bay marine sediment containing sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and corrosion rate of steel in the partly sediment specimens were determined by the transplanting burying method. Based on the data, the fuzzy clustering analysis (FCA) was applied to evaluate and predict the corrosiveness of marine sediment. On that basis, the influence factors of corrosion damage were discussed.

构造复杂区变速成图方法研究

In the complex structure areas, velocity field building and structure mapping are important for seismic exploration. With the development of seismic exploration, the methods of structure mapping, reservoir prediction and reservoir description all require high precious velocity field. And more accurate depth-structure maps are required for well site design. Aiming at the problems and defects in velocity analysis and structure mapping in oil seismic exploration, the paper which is based on the studies of real data in several areas combines the theories with practical application, and analyzes the precision and applicability of several methods of velocity model building. After that, the following methods are mainly studied: the coherence inversion methods based on the pre-stack CMP gathers or stacking velocity; the interval velocity inversion methods constrained by multi-well; the Random Simulation method; 3D Image Ray Map Migration method and the structure mapping in floating datum and in fixed datum, and then we conclude the method of building high precious seismic velocity field and structure mapping with variable velocity. Firstly, the paper analyses the distributing rule of the velocity variation in the areas with complex structures in the northwest of China, then points out that velocity is a crucial factor which influences the precision of structure mapping, and the velocity variations have something to do with the shapes of the structures, the variety of lithology and so on. The key point of improving the precision of seismic velocity field is to obtain a structure mapping with high precision. We also describe the range and conditions of these methods. Secondly, by comparing many popular methods of velocity model building, we propose a new method in the use of velocity model building. The new method is more effective in velocity model building under every kind of complex condition and is worthy of spreading. At last, the paper fingers out that it is a system engineering to study variable velocity mapping in every kind of complex structure areas. Every step of the work can affect the final results. So it is important to build high efficient and practical velocity model and the flows of mapping processing. The paper builds the flows and gives some examples. The method has been applied in more than ten exploring surveys. The application proves that this method could bring good effect on researching on low-amplitude trap, reservoir prediction, reservoir description and the integrated research of oil&gas geology. Keywords: structure mapping velocity model building complex structure variable velocity media

裂缝储层预测技术应用研究

In practice,many fracture reservoir was found,which has giant potential for exporation. For example,in limestone fracture reservoir,igneous rock fracture reservoir and shale fracture reservoir ,there are high yield oil wells found. The fracture reservoir has strong anisotropy and is very difficult to explore and produce.Since 1990’s,the techniques that use structure information and P-WAVE seismic attributes to detect fracture developed very rapidly,include stress and strain analysis,using amplitude,interval velocity,time-difference,azimuthal AVO analysis etc. Based on research and develop these advanced techniques of fracture detect,this paper selected two typical fracture reservoir as target area,according to the characters of research area,selected different techniques to pridect the fracture azimuth and density of target,and at last ,confirmed the favored area. This paper includes six parts:the first chapter mainly addresses the domestic and international research actuality about the fracture prediction and the evolement in ShengLi oil field,then according to the temporal exploration requirement,a research route was established; Based on the close relationship between structural fracture and the geotectonic movement and the procedure of rock distortion，the second chapter research the structural fracture predicting technique which is realized by computing the strain in every geotectonic movement ,which is by use of the forward and inversion of the growing history of structure; The third chapter discussed many kind of traditional techniques for fracture reservoir prediction,and point out their disadvantages.then research and develop the coherence volume computing technique which can distinguish from faults,the seismic wave absorbing technique,and other fracture predicting technique which is by use of seismic attributes ,such as azimuthal AVO FVO etc; The fourth chapter first establish the geological and petrophysical model by use of the existed log and drill well information, then research the variation of amplitude and seismic wave which is caused by fractures.based on it , the fracture predicting technique which is by use of variation of azimuthal impedance is researched;The fifth chapter is a case study,it selects shale fracture reservoir in LuoJia area as target,selects several kind of techniques to apply ,at last ,the fracture distribution of target reservoir and favored area were gotten;the sixth chapter is another case study,it selects limestone fracture reservoir in BoShen6 buried hill as target,selects several kind of techniques to apply,similarly favored area were gotten. Based on deeply research and development of the new techniques for fracture reservoir exploration, This paper selects two fracture reservoirs the most typical in ShengLi as targets to be applied ,good results show up a good application way ,which can be used for reference for future fracture exploration,and it can bring materially economic and social benefit.

复杂条件地层滤波预测的理论与关键技术研究

The theory researches of prediction about stratigraphic filtering in complex condition are carried out, and three key techniques are put forward in this dissertation. Theoretical aspects: The prediction equations for both slant incidence in horizontally layered medium and that in laterally variant velocity medium are expressed appropriately. Solving the equations, the linear prediction operator of overlaid layers, then corresponding reflection/transmission operators, can be obtained. The properties of linear prediction operator are elucidated followed by putting forward the event model for generalized Goupillaud layers. Key technique 1: Spectral factorization is introduced to solve the prediction equations in complex condition and numerical results are illustrated. Key technique 2: So-called large-step wavefield extrapolation of one-way wave under laterally variant velocity circumstance is studied. Based on Lie algebraic integral and structure preserving algorithm, large-step wavefield depth extrapolation scheme is set forth. In this method, the complex phase of wavefield extrapolation operator’s symbol is expressed as a linear combination of wavenumbers with the coefficients of this linear combination in the form of the integral of interval velocity and its derivatives over depth. The exponential transform of the complex phase is implemented through phase shifting, BCH splitting and orthogonal polynomial expansion. The results of numerical test show that large-step scheme takes on a great number of advantages as low accumulating error, cheapness, well adaptability to laterally variant velocity, small dispersive, etc. Key technique 3: Utilizing large-step wavefield extrapolation scheme and based on the idea of local harmonic decomposition, the technique generating angle gathers for 2D case is generalized to 3D case so as to solve the problems generating and storing 3D prestack angle gathers. Shot domain parallel scheme is adopted by which main duty for servant-nodes is to compute trigonometric expansion coefficients, while that for host-node is to reclaim them with which object-oriented angle gathers yield. In theoretical research, many efforts have been made in probing into the traits of uncertainties within macro-dynamic procedures.

砂泥岩薄互层储层预测方法与应用研究

With the deeply development of exploration and development in petroleum in China, new increasing reserves are found in old oil fields and the verge of the old ones through re-study of geological property. It is more and more important to discovery and develop thin layer or thin inter-bedded layers reservoirs. All of the targets are thin sand-shale inter-bedded reservoirs and the core technology is reservoir predictions between wells in thin sand-shale inter-bedded layers. The continuity of the thin sand-shale inter-bedded layers in space or separating and heterogeneity is the key of reservoir geology research. The seismic reflection, high resolution analysis method and inversion method to thin sand-shale inter-bedded layers are thorough discussed and deeply studied in this paper to try to find the methods and resolutions of reservoir geology research. The below is followed. 1. Based on the pre-research of other people, five models are created: the sand sphenoid body, interlay sandstone and interlay shale of the equal thickness, interlay sandstone of the equal thickness and interlay shale of the unequal thickness, interlay sandstone of the unequal thickness and interlay shale of the unequal thickness, interlay sandstone of the changing thickness in sequence and interlay shale of the changing thickness in sequence. Then the study of the forward modeling are conducted on the thin layer and thin inter-bedded layers geological characters and seismic reflections including amplitude, frequency, phase, wave shape and time-frequency responding in the domains of time and frequency. The affect of petro-physics difference of layers, single thin layer thickness, thickness of inter-bedded, layer number of inter-bedded, incident wavelet domain frequency and types, sample interval to seismic reflection characters, frequency spectrum and time-frequency respond of reflectivity is theoretically discussed. 2. Qualitatively analyzing the sedimentary rhythm of the thin inter-bedded layers in vertical orientation and computing the single layer thickness or the average thickness with the method of generalized S transform. Identifying the reflecting interface or lithology interface using the amplitude value of amplitude spectrum domain frequency. 3. Based on the seismic respond of thin sand-shale inter-bedded layers, bring out the high resolution analysis method of seismic data in thin sand-shale inter-bedded layers using wavelet analysis and the idea of affecting low and high frequency with middle frequency. Then analyzing the effect to the method and testing some wavelets in the method. This method is applied to the theoretical models and the field data. 4. Bring forward one improved very fast simulated annealing method (IVFSA) to resolve the problem nonlinearity and multi-parameters of the inversion in thin inter-bedded layers. And IVFSA is more productive and higher precision than general ways. 5. New target constrained function is used in the inversion based on the property of the inversion in thin inter-bedded layers. 6. Making the full use of geological and logging information, IVFSA and the new function are applied in the non-linear inversion to improve reservoir prediction and evaluation in thin inter-bedded formations combined with the idea of logging and seismic inversion. This method was applied to the field data and got good results.

火成岩储层裂缝识别、预测理论与方法研究－以济阳坳陷火成岩油藏为例

Since 1970s, igneous reservoirs such as Shang741, Bin674 and Luol51 have been found in Jiyang depression, which are enrichment and heavy-producing. Showing good prospect of exploration and development, igneous reservoirs have been the main part of increasing reserves and production in Shengli oilfield. As fracture igneous reservoir being an extraordinary complex concealed reservoir and showing heavy heterogeneity in spatial distribution, the study of recognition, prediction, formation mechanism and the law of distribution of fracture is essential to develop the reservoir. Guided by multiple discipline theory such as sedimentology, geophysics, mineralogy, petroleum geology, structural geology and reservoir engineering, a set of theories and methods of recognition and prediction of fractured igneous rock reservoir are formed in this paper. Rock data, three-dimensional seismic data, log data, borehole log data, testing data and production data are combined in these methods by the means of computer. Based on the research of igneous rock petrography and reservoir formation mechanism, emphasized on the assessment and forecast of igneous rock reservoir, aimed at establishing a nonhomogeneity quantification model of fractured igneous rock reservoir, the creativity on the fracture recognition, prediction and formation mechanism are achieved. The research result is applied to Jiyang depression, suggestion of exploration and development for fractured igneous rock reservoir is supplied and some great achievement and favourable economic effect are achieved. The main achievements are gained as follows: 1. The main facies models of igneous rock reservoir in JiYang depression are summarized. Based on data and techniques of seism, well log and logging,started from the research of single well rock facies, proceeded by seismic and log facies research, from point to line and line to face, the regional igneous facies models are established. And hypabyssal intrusion allgovite facies model, explosion volcaniclastic rock facies model and overfall basaltic rocks facies model are the main facies models of igneous rock reservoir in JiYang depression. 2. Four nonhomogenous reservoir models of igneous reservoirs are established, which is the base of fracture prediction and recognition. According to characteristics of igneous petrology and spatial types of reservoir, igneous reservoirs of Jiyang depression are divided into four categories: fractured irruptive rock reservoir, fracture-pore thermocontact metamorphic rock and irruptive rock compound reservoir, pore volcanic debris cone reservoir and fracture-pore overfall basaltic rock reservoir. The spatial distribution of each model's reservoir has its features. And reservoirs can be divided into primary ones and secondary ones, whose mechanism of formation and laws of distribution are studied in this paper. 3. Eight geologic factors which dominate igneous reservoirs are presented. The eight geologic factors which dominates igneous reservoirs are igneous facies, epigenetic tectonics deformation, fracture motion, intensity of intrusive effect and adjoining-rock characters, thermo-contact metamorphic rock facies, specific volcano-tectonic position, magmatic cyclicity and epigenetic diagenetic evolution. The interaction of the eight factors forms the four types nonhomogenous reservoir models of igneous reservoirs in Jiyang depression. And igneous facies and fracture motion are the most important and primary factors. 4. Identification patterns of seismic, well log and logging facies of igneous rocks are established. Igneous rocks of Jiyang depression show typical reflecting features on seismic profile. Tabular reflection seismic facies, arc reflection seismic facies and hummocky or mushroom reflection seismic facies are the three main facies. Logging response features of basic basalt and diabase are shown as typical "three low and two high", which means low natural gamma value, low interval transit-time, low neutron porosity, high resistivity and high density. Volcaniclastic rocks show "two high and three low"-high neutron porosity, high interval transit-time, low density, low-resistance and low natural gamma value. Thermo-contact metamorphic rocks surrounding to diabase show "four high and two low" on log data, which is high natural gamma value, high self-potential anomaly, high neutron porosity, high interval transit-time and low density and low-resistance. Based on seismic, well log and logging data, spatial shape of Shang 741 igneous rock is described. 5. The methods of fracture prediction and recognition for fractured igneous reservoir are summarized. Adopting FMI image log and nuclear magnetic resonance log to quantitative analysis of fractured igneous reservoir and according to formation mechanism and shape of fracture, various fractures are recognized, such as high-angle fracture, low-angle fracture, vertical fracture, reticulated fracture, induced fracture, infilling fracture and corrosion vug. Shang 741 intrusive rock reservoir can be divided into pore-vug compound type, pore fracture type, micro-pore and micro-fracture type. Physical properties parameters of the reservoir are computed and single-well fracture model and reservoir parameters model are established. 6. Various comprehensive methods of fracture prediction and recognition for fractured igneous reservoir are put forward. Adopting three-element (igneous facies, fracture motion and rock bending) geologic comprehensive reservoir evaluation technique and deep-shallow unconventional laterolog constrained inversion technique, lateral prediction of fractured reservoir such as Shang 741 is taken and nonhomogeneity quantification models of reservoirs are established.

中国大陆及邻区地震活动背景、环境触发与地震预测研究

This dissertation that includes most of the P. PH.D research work during 2001~2002 covers the large-scale distribution of continental earthquakes in mainland China, the mechanism and statistic features of grouped strong earthquakes related to the tidal triggering, some results in earthquake prediction with correlativity analysis methods, and the flushes from the two strong continental earthquakes in South Asia in 2001. Mainland China is the only continental sub-plate that is compressed by collision boundaries at its two sides, within which earthquakes are dispersive and distributed as seismic belts with different widths. The control capability of the continental block boundaries on the strong earthquakes and seismic hazards is calculated and analyzed in this dissertation. By mapping the distribution of the 31282 ML:3s2,0 earthquakes, I found that the depth of continental earthquakes depend on the tectonic zonings. The events on the boundaries of relatively integrated blocks are deep and those on the new-developed ruptures are shallow. The average depth of earthquakes in the West of China is about 5km deeper than that in the east. The western and southwestern brim of Tarim Basin generated the deepest earthquakes in mainland China. The statistic results from correlation between the grouped M7 earthquakes and the tidal stress show that the strong events were modulated by tidal stress in active periods. Taking Taiwan area as an example, the dependence of moderate events on the moon phase angles (￡>) is analyzed, which shows that the number of the earthquakes in Taiwan when D is 50° ,50° +90° and 50° +180° is more than 2 times of standard deviation over the average frequency at each degree, corresponding to the 4th, 12th and 19th solar day after the new moon. The probability of earthquake attack to the densely populated Taiwan island on the 4th solar day is about 4 times of that on other solar days. On the practice of earthquake prediction, I calculated and analyzed the temporal correlation of the earthquakes in Xinjinag area, Qinghai-Tibet area, west Yunnan area, North China area and those in their adjacent areas, and predicted at the end of 2000 that it would be a special time interval from 2001 to 2003, within which moderate to strong earthquakes would be more active in the west of China. What happened in 2001 partly validated the prediction. Within 10 months, there were 2 great continental earthquakes in south Asia, i.e., the M7.8 event in India on Jan 26 and M8.1 event in China on Nov. 14, 2001, which are the largest earthquake in the past 50 years both for India and China. No records for two great earthquakes in Asia within so short time interval. We should speculate the following aspects from the two incidences: The influence of the fallacious deployment of seismic stations on the fine location and focal mechanism determination of strong earthquakes must be affronted. It is very important to introduce comparative seismology research to seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction research. The improvement or changes in real-time prediction of strong earthquakes with precursors is urged. Methods need to be refreshed to protect environment and historical relics in earthquake-prone areas.

Prediction of soil adsorption coefficients from retention parameters on three reversed-phase liquid chromatographic columns

Reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatographic (RP-HPLC) retention parameters, which are determined by the intermolecular interactions in retention process, can be considered as the chemical molecular descriptors in linear free energy relationships (LFERs). On the basis of the characterization and comparison of octadecyl-bonded silica gel (ODS), cyano-bonded silica gel (CN), and phenyl-bonded silica gel (Ph) columns with linear solvation energy relationships (LSERs), a new multiple linear regression model using RP-HPLC retention parameters on ODS and CN columns as variables for estimation of soil adsorption coefficients was developed. It was tested on a set of reference substances from various chemical classes. The results showed that the multicolumn method was more promising than a single-column method was for the estimation of soil adsorption coefficients. The accuracy of the suggested model is identical with that of LSERs.