大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

湖南、广西泥盆纪硅岩地球化学与沉积构造背景

During the Devonian, a complicated carbonate platform-basin configuration was created through transtensional rifting in the context of opening of Devonian South China Sea; extensive bedded chert, commonly interbedded with tuffaceous beds, occurred in the narrow, elongate interplatform basins (or troughs) in South China, where they occurred earlier (Early Devonian) in southern Guangxi and later (early Late Devonian) in northern Guangxi-south central Hunan. In order to unravel the origin and distribution of the bedded chert successions, and their relationships to basement faulting activities during the opening of the Devonian South China Sea, studies of element (major, minor and REE) geochemistry and Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd isotopic systematics are carried out upon the chert deposits. These chert deposits commonly have high SiO2 contents and (average 94.01%) and low TFe2O3 (average 0.55%), together with other geochemical parameters, suggestive of both biogenic and hydrothermal origins. However, Fe/Ti ratio are high along the elongate interplatform basins(troughs) to the northwest along Wuxiangling-Zhaisha-Chengbu, and to the southeast along Xiaodong-Mugui-Xinpu, suggesting relatively intense hydrothermal activities there. They generally contain very low total REE contents (∑REE average 31.21ug/g) with mediate negative Ce anomalies (mean Ce/Ce*=0.83) and low Lan/Cen values (average 1.64), indicating an overall continental margin basin where they precipitated. The northward increases in Ce/Ce* values, particularly along the elongate troughs bounded both to the east and west of the Guangxi-Huanan rift basin, suggest a northward enhancement of terrigenous influences, thereby reflecting a gradual northward propagation of open marine setting. Generally low positive Eu anomalies in the chert, except for the apparently high Eu anomalies in the chert from Chengbu (Eu/Eu* up to 4.6), suggest mild hydrothermal venting activities in general, except for those at Chengbu. The initial 87Sr/86Sr (0) ratios of chert generally vary from 0.712000 to 0.73000 , suggesting influences both from terrigenous influx and seawater. The Nd isotopic model ages (tDM or t2DM) and initial εNd (0) values of chert vary mostly from 1.5 to 2.1 Ga, and from –16 to –21, respectively, implying that the silica sources were derived from the provenances of the Palaeoproterozoic crust relics at depth. The high εNd (0) values of chert (-0.22 to 14.7) in some localities, mostly along the elongate troughs, suggest that silica sources may have been derived from deeper-seated mantle, being channeled through the interplate boundary fault zones extending downwards to the mantle. At Wuxiangling, Nanning, chert occurs extensively from the Emsian through the Frasnian strata, both U/Th ratios and tDM ages of chert reached up to a maximum in the early Frasnian corresponding to the extensive development of chert in South China, pointing to a maximum extensional stage of Devonian South China basin, which is supported by the Ce/Ce* values as is opposed to the previous datasets as the coeval minimum values.

中低纬电离层暴的统计分析与经验建模

As a key issue of ionospheric weather study, systemic studies on ionospheric storms can not only further improve our understanding of the response of the ionosphere to solar and geomagnetic disturbances, but also help us to reveal the chemical, dynamic and electro-dynamic mechanisms during storms. Empirical modelling for regional ionospheric storm is also very useful, because it can provide us with tools and references for the forecasting and further practical application of ionospheric activity. In this thesis, we focus on describing and forecasting of ionospheric storms at middle and low latitudes. The main points of my investigations are listed as follows. (1) By using magnetic storms during the period over 50 years, the dependence of the type, onset time and time delay of the ionospheric storms on magnetic latitude, season and local time at middle and low latitudes in the East-Asian sector are studied. The results show that the occurrences of the types of ionospheric disturbances differ in latitude and season. The onset of the ionospheric storms depends on local time. At middle latitudes, most negative phase onsets are within the local time interval from night to early morning, and they rarely occurred in the local noon and afternoon sectors. At low latitudes, positive phases commence most frequently in the daytime sector as well as pre-midnight sector. The average time delays for both the positive and negative ionospheric storms increase with descending latitudes. The time delay has significant dependence on the local time of main phase onset (MPO). The time delay of positive response is shorter for daytime MPO and longer for night-time MPO, whereas the opposite applies for negative response. (2) Based on some previous researches, a primary empirical model for mid-latitude ionospheric disturbance is set up. By fitting to the observed data, we get a high accuracy with a mean RMSE of only 12-14% in summer and equinox. The model output has been compared with the output of STORM model, and the results show that, our model is much better than STORM in summer and a little better for some mid-latitude stations at equinox. Especially, for the type of two-step geomagnetic storm, our model can present twice descending of foF2 very well. In addition, our model can forecast positive ionospheric storms.

泥河湾盆地大长梁剖面岩石磁学和环境磁学研究

The fluvio-lacustrine sequence in the Nihewan Basin is an important archive of late Pliocene-Pleistocene climate and environment changes in temperate northern China, which provides excellent sources of early human settlements in high latitude East Asia. The recent years have witnessed a considerable progress in the paleomagnetic dating of its stratigraphy, which has notably increased our understanding of a series of important issues such as the early human occupation in the Old World, the infilling history of the Nihewan Basin, and the chronological sequence of the Nihewan faunas. Up to now, the long-term paleoenvironmental changes directly retrieved from this basin, which might influence the evolution and expansion of early humans in the Nihewan Basin, are still poorly constrained, although several paleoclimatic records have been retrieved from this area. In this study, a combined mineral-magnetic and geochemical investigation was carried out on the fluvio-lacustrine sequence from the Dachangliang section at the eastern margin of the basin in order to reveal its rock magnetic and environmental magnetic characteristics and its implications for early human evolution in East Asia. The major findings and conclusions are listed as the following: First, there is an increased cooling coupled with an intensified aridification recorded in the fluvio-lacustrine sequence of the Dachangliang section. The cooling is related to an up-section decrease in propensity to chemical weathering as inferred from an increase in low-field susceptibility after cycling to 700 °C. Close to 700 °C, reacting chlorite is providing the iron source for newly formed very fine-grained ferrimagnetic minerals which enhances the susceptibility signal. The reactivity of chlorite after annealing at temperatures above 600 °C is documented with X-ray diffraction. Second, degrees of chemical weathering in the Nihewan Basin are further estimated by clay mineralogy (i.e. chlorite and illite contents and chlorite/illite ratio) and a series of major element proxies (i.e. Na2O/Al2O3 versus K2O/Al2O3 diagram, Al2O3-(CaO + Na2O)-K2O ternary diagram (A-CN-K), chemical index of alteration (CIA), (CaO + Na2O + MgO)/TiO2, (CaO + Na2O + MgO + K2O)/(TiO2 + Al2O3), CaO/Al2O3 and CaO/TiO2). The up-section decrease in propensity to chemical weathering suggested by the aforementioned rock mangetic measurement is further confirmed by these geochemical analyses. Combining the chemical weathering records from the Nihewan Basin, Chinese Loess Plateau, South China Sea and eastern China, we find that the consecutive decreasing trend in chemical weathering intensity during the late Cenozoic is ubiquitous across China. This pattern may result from a long-term decreasing East Asian summer monsoon and increasing East Asian winter monsoon, and thus a consecutive increasing of aridification and cooling in Asia during the Quaternary. Furthermore, the chemical weathering intensity increased from South China to North China during the Quaternary, in line with the decreasing East Asian summer monsoon and increasing East Asian winter monsoon and thus the gradually intensified aridification and cooling from South China to North China. Third, a combined mineral-magnetic and geochemical investigation provides evidences that the large-amplitude alterations of concentration of magnetic minerals mainly result from preservation/dissolution cycles of detrital magnetic minerals in alternately oxic and anoxic depositional environments. The preservation/dissolution model implies that the high-magnetic and low-magnetic cycles of this sedimentary sequence represent glacial and interglacial climate cycles, respectively. This contribute significnatly to our understanding of the link between climate and magnetic properties. Finally, the paleoclimatic implications of these rock magnetic and geochemical characteristics significantly increase our understanding of the general setting of early humans in high northern latitude in East Asia. We propose that the cold and dry climate may have contributed significantly to the expansion and adaptation of early humans, rather than bringing hardship, as is often thought. The relationship between magnetic properties and climate possibly provides valuable information on the climatic context of the Paleolithic sites in the basin, especially whether the occupation occurred during an interglacial or glacial period.

湛江湖光岩玛珥湖55ka以来植硅体化石记录及古环境变迁

The study of biogenic proxy of tropical and subtropical regions provides important evidence about the process and history of vegetation and environmental changes, and is of globally importance for understanding the dynamic mechanism of paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental changes. The sediments from the Huguangyan Maar lake in Guangdong Province offer a continuous high-resolution record of the past 55 ka about environmental and vegetational changes. The studies of chronology, and physical, chemical environmental proxies have provided much important information about the paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic histories. The phytolith, a new biogenicl proxy, has been used to determine the nature and types of plants in this area since the last 55 ka. This study presents a preliminary result about the characteristics of phytolith shapes, the variations of the fossils assemblages, and their significance for environmental changes. Moreover, the author probes the process of special specie evolution and their relationship to climatic parameters. The history of fire has been reconstructed based on the variations in charcoals. The main results and conclusions include: 28 types of phytoliths from 233 samples have been identified. Their environmental meanings are investigated in detail. Based on the variations in phytolith associations, the history and process of climatic and environmental changes in the last 55 kaBP have been established for this region. Climatic changes experienced eight intervals during this period, showing the variations of hot-humid to cool-try climate in the ten thousands years scale, and a shorter dry-hot climate condition in millennial scale. The history of palm plant has been established in this region. Two peaks appeared from 55-39 ka and since the Holocene. Plants in Bambusoideae have been growing in this area all the period, representing the impact of the East Asian summer monsoon. Bamboo plants have similar tendency in their abundance to palm plants, but with a lag of 1-2 ka BP. Panicoideae plants, the representative of C4 plants, have 6 flourishing periods occurred at 54.5, 44, 41.5, 32.5, 14, and 10 kaBP, respectively, reflecting 6 times short-term arid events. Charcoal record from the Huguang Marr lake reveals the history of nature fire, that mostly happened in dry period of last glacial from 55-10 kaBP, centered at 50-45, 40-35, 30-25, and 20-15kaBP, showing about a cycle of 10,000 years.

中国南方热带地区田洋玛珥湖24万年以来的气候变化及湖泊演变

A continuous long (224m) and high-resolution core TY2 was recovered from paleo-maar-lake Tianyang, tropical South China. Based on the diatom records of the upper 130-m core, this paper focuses on exploring climate change and the lake evolution history in tropical South China during the past 240ka. The most typical and unique characteristics of the diatom assemblages is that, Aulacoseira granulata was dominant or absolutely dominant species (80-90%) during most parts of the 130-m core, while Cyclotella stelligera var. tenuis and Fragilaria construens var. venter were subdominant species in only limited parts of the lower and upper core, respectively. Time scale is always the biggest problem for the study of TY2 core, so although diatom is seldom used for establishing time scale, here we attempt this by correlating the diatom-reconstructed temperature sequence with the time scale of ODP core 806B from Equatorial Western Pacific. Verified by the few most reliable ages from TY2 core and the parallel core TYl, a rather reasonable and reliable time scale was established. 01S 7/6 falls at the depth of 100m (ca. 194kaBP), OIS 6/5 at 75m (ca. 132kaBP), OIS 5/4 at 46m (ca. 75kaBP), OIS 4-3 at 35m (ca. 60kaBP). Qualitative and quantitative environmental reconstructions are made on the basis of diatom assemblage ecotype and EDDI dataset. Correlation of diatom-reconstructed temperature and moisture changes of Core TY2 with pollen-reconstructed temperature and rainfall sequence of Core TYl proves that the results are quite consistent in most periods. Thus the reconstruction results from diatom are quite reliable, and probably have a much higher resolution than pollen results. Combined with lithological and magnetic susceptibility variations, the diatom analysis reveals that, the general climate in tropical South China during the past 240ka was warm and wet. On the time scale of glacial-interglacial, warm and wet, cool and dry are not always synchronous. It was relatively warm-wet during the penultimate interglacial, cool-dry during the penultimate glacial, warm-dry during the last interglacial, and cooler-drier during the last glacial. In contrast, on the time scale of subglacial-subinterglacial scales, warm and dry, cool and wet corresponds very obviously, showing very clear 21-23 ka precession cycle. Analysis also shows that, the water of Tianyang paleo-maar-lake was generally warm, turbulent, turbid, meso-trophic, slightly alkaline, low conductivity and fresh during the past 240 kaBP, with small variations in some parts. Tianyang paleolake experienced shallow to semi-deep lake in OIS7d, open shallow lake in OIS7c-OIS5b, shallow coastal lake in OIS5a-OIS4c, swamp in OIS4b, and then completely dried up in OIS3c. The lake evolution was mainly controlled by temperature and precipitation changes in tropical China. While temperature and precipitation changes were probably controlled by the migrations of monsoon rainband and the evaporation rate, which was in turn controlled by the evolution of East Asian monsoon. Therefore, when the summer monsoon was strongest the climate was warm-dry, when stronger the climate was warm-wet; when the winter monsoon was strongest the climate was cool-dry, stronger cool-wet. This mechanism caused the warm-dry sub interglacial and cool-wet subglacial climate in the tropical South China.