75 resultados para Forecast combination
Resumo:
The present study reports an application of the searching combination moving window partial least squares (SCMWPLS) algorithm to the determination of ethenzamide and acetoaminophen in quaternary powdered samples by near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Another purpose of the study was to examine the instrumentation effects of spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio of the Buchi NIRLab N-200 FT-NIR spectrometer equipped with an InGaAs detector. The informative spectral intervals of NIR spectra of a series of quaternary powdered mixture samples were first located for ethenzamide and acetoaminophen by use of moving window partial least squares regression (MWPLSR). Then, these located spectral intervals were further optimised by SCMWPLS for subsequent partial least squares (PLS) model development. The improved results are attributed to both the less complex PLS models and to higher accuracy of predicted concentrations of ethenzamide and acetoaminophen in the optimised informative spectral intervals that are featured by NIR bands. At the same time, SCMWPLS is also demonstrated as a viable route for wavelength selection.
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The synergistic extraction of rare earths (La, Nd, Gd, Y and Yb) with a mixture of 2-ethylhexyl 2-ethylhexylphosphonate (EHEHPA) (HA) and trialkylphosphine oxide (Cyanex 923) (B) from a hydrochloride medium was investigated. The mixed system significantly enhances the extraction efficiency for lighter lanthanides and the synergistic enhancement coefficients for La (4.52), Nd (3.35), Gd (2.08), Y (1.31) and Yb (1.08) decrease with decreasing ionic radius of the rare earths. The extraction equilibrium of La, Nd and Gd indicate that La and Nd were extracted as MA(3)(.)B, whereas Gd was extracted as Gd(OH)A(2)(HA)(2)B-.. The equilibrium constants, thermodynamic functions such as Delta G, Delta H and Delta S and formation constants of the extracted species were determined. The stripping properties were also studied.
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A new electrochemical cell assembly with the combination of UV and amperometric detector (AD) based on their complementarity was described. A Nafion tubing junction was used to decouple the high voltage from the separation capillary in the rear of on-column UV detector. In this mode, the electroactive and inert compounds could be detected by UV and AD at the same time. Aromatic amines were determined with the UV and the end-column AD detection to evaluate the performances of the cell assembly. Such an improved electrochemical detector could match the capillary with different diameters. By simple adjustment of the screws, the positioning of the working electrode and the detection capillary was easily gained without microscope. It is also very easy to assemble and disassemble the working electrode when needed. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The catalytic mechanisms of triphenyl bismuth (TPB), dibutyltin dilaurate (DBTDL) and their combination have been studied in a model polyurethane reaction system consisting of copolyether (tetrahydrofuran-ethyleneoxide) and N-100; NMR spectroscopy was used to detect the associations between reactants and catalysts. A relatively stable complex was shown to be formed between hydroxyl and isocyanate; the catalysts showed different effects on the isocyanate-hydroxyl complex, therefore resulting in different curing characteristics. The formation of hydrogen bonding between the complexed hydroxyl and other hydroxyl or the resulting urethane provided an ''auto-catalysis'' to urethane formation. DBTDL destroyed the isocyanate-hydroxyl complex before catalyzing the reaction through the formation of a ternary complex, whereas TPB was able to activate the isocyanate-hydroxyl complex directly to form urethane. The reaction catalyzed by the combination of TPB and DBTDL gained advantages from the multiple catalytic entities, i.e., TPB, DBTDL, and a TPB-DBTDL complex. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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The high mortality rate of immunocompromised patients with fungal infections and the limited availability of highly efficacious and safe agents demand the development of new antifungal therapeutics. To rapidly discover such agents, we developed a high-throughput synergy screening (HTSS) strategy for novel microbial natural products. Specifically, a microbial natural product library was screened for hits that synergize the effect of a low dosage of ketoconazole (KTC) that alone shows little detectable fungicidal activity. Through screening of approximate to 20,000 microbial extracts, 12 hits were identified with broadspectrum antifungal activity. Seven of them showed little cytotoxicity against human hepatoma cells. Fractionation of the active extracts revealed beauvericin (BEA) as the most potent component, because it dramatically synergized KTC activity against diverse fungal pathogens by a checkerboard assay. Significantly, in our immunocompromised mouse model, combinations of BEA (0.5 mg/kg) and KTC (0.5 mg/kg) prolonged survival of the host infected with Candida parapsilosis and reduced fungal colony counts in animal organs including kidneys, lungs, and brains. Such an effect was not achieved even with the high dose of 50 mg/kg KTC. These data support synergism between BEA and KTC and thereby a prospective strategy for antifungal therapy.
Resumo:
The inhibition effect of sophorolipid and removal efficiency of loess on Cochlodinium polykrikoides and Alexandrium tamarense was investigated separately in the laboratory. Based on this, the combination of sophorolipid and loess for harmful algal bloom mitigation was proposed. Algal sedimentation tests in the laboratory and in the field revealed that the combination of sophorolipid and loess showed synergistic effects both on the removal efficiencies and on the mitigation cost. The concentration of 1 g/l loess and 5 mg/l sophorolipid was determined as the optimum ratio for C polykrikoides mitigation. In the field test, the effective concentration of loess and sophorolipid in the combination group was reduced to 10% and 25%, respectively, compared to the non-combination group, and the cost decreased more than 60%. The combination of loess and sophorolipid was considered as a promising novel method in harmful algal bloom mitigation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) was used to extract homoisoflavonoids from Ophiopogon japonicus (Thunb.) Ker-Gawler. The optimization of parameters was carried out using an orthogonal test L-9 (3)(4) including pressure, temperature, dynamic extraction time and the amount of modifier. The process was then scaled up by 100 times with a preparative SFE system under the optimized conditions of 25 MPa, 55 degrees C, 4.0 h and 25% methanol as a modifier. Then crude extracts were separated and purified by high-speed counter-current chromatography (HSCCC) with a two-phase solvent system composed of n-hexane/ethyl acetate/methanol/ACN/water (1.8:1.0:1.0:1.2:1.0 v/v). There three homoisoflavonoidal compounds including methylophiopogonanone A 6-aldehydo-isoophiopogonone A, and 6-formyl-isoophiopogonanone A, were successfully isolated and purified in one step. The collected fractions were analyzed by HPLC. In each operation, 140 mg crude extracts was separated and yielded 15.3 mg of methylophiopogonanone A (96.9% purity), 4.1 mg of 6-aldehydo-isoophiopogonone A (98.3% purity) and 13.5 mg of 6-formyl-isoophiopogonanone A (97.3% purity) respectively. The chemical structure of the three homoisoflavonoids are identified by means of ESI-MS and NMR analysis.
Resumo:
With the continuously proceeding of petroleum exploratory development in China, exploratory development becomes more and more difficult. For increasing reserve volume and production, lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir has been the most workable, potential and universality exploration targets. In the past, Dagang Oil Field use the complicated fault reservoir theory as the guide, develop and form a suit of matching construction and instrument in prospecting complicated fault reservoir that reach top of exploration industry in China. But the research of lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir is not much, which affects the exploitation progress of lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir. In this thesis, is object, through the depth study of lithologic deposition in Shasan segment of Zhouqingzhuang Oil Field, a suit of holographic fine reservoir bed forecasting techniques is built up and finally gets following main results: 1. Applying geology, seism, drilling, logging and other information to sensitivity preferences, geological model, inversion and integrated stratum evaluation, realizing the method and flow of refined multi-information stratum forecast. 2. Built up a full three dimensional fine structural interpretation method: in view of r problem of accurately demarcating 90% inclined well, propose a inclined well air space demarcating method, make bed demarcating more exactly; in view of problem of faults demarcating and combination in seismic interpretation, propose a computational method of seismic interference based on wavelet translation, make identify the fault in different level more dependable and reasonable; for exactly identifying structural attitude, propose a velocity modeling method under multi-well restriction, make structural attitude closer to the facts. 3. Built up a high accuracy reservoir bed inversion method: in view of problem in exactly identifying reservoir and nonreservoir with conventional wave impedance inversion method in this place, propose a reservoir log response characteristic analysis and sensible log parameter inversion method. ①analysis log response of reservoir and nonreservoir in region of interest, make definite the most sensible log parameter in identifying reservoir and nonreservoir in this region; ②make sensible log parameter inversion based on wave impedance inversion, to improve inversion accuracy, the thickness of recognizable reservoir bed reach 4-5m. 4. Built up a 4-D reservoir forcasting circuit: in view of difficulty that in lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir making reservoir space characteristic clear by using structural map and reservoir forecasting techniques once only, propose a 4-D reservoir forcasting circuit. In other words, based on development conceptual design, forcast reservoir of different time, namely multiple 3D reservoir forcasting in time queue, each time the accuracy degree of reservoir forcasting is improved since apply the new well material, thereby achieve high quality and highly efficient in exploratory development. During exploratory development lithologic depositin in Shasan segment of Zhouqingzhuang Oil Field, there are thirteen wells get 100% success rate, which sufficiently proves that this suit of method is scientific and effective.
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On the issue of geological hazard evaluation(GHE), taking remote sensing and GIS systems as experimental environment, assisting with some programming development, this thesis combines multi-knowledges of geo-hazard mechanism, statistic learning, remote sensing (RS), high-spectral recognition, spatial analysis, digital photogrammetry as well as mineralogy, and selects geo-hazard samples from Hong Kong and Three Parallel River region as experimental data, to study two kinds of core questions of GHE, geo-hazard information acquiring and evaluation model. In the aspect of landslide information acquiring by RS, three detailed topics are presented, image enhance for visual interpretation, automatic recognition of landslide as well as quantitative mineral mapping. As to the evaluation model, the latest and powerful data mining method, support vector machine (SVM), is introduced to GHE field, and a serious of comparing experiments are carried out to verify its feasibility and efficiency. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method to forecast the distribution of landslides if rainfall in future is known baseing on historical rainfall and corresponding landslide susceptibility map. The details are as following: (a) Remote sensing image enhancing methods for geo-hazard visual interpretation. The effect of visual interpretation is determined by RS data and image enhancing method, for which the most effective and regular technique is image merge between high-spatial image and multi-spectral image, but there are few researches concerning the merging methods of geo-hazard recognition. By the comparing experimental of six mainstream merging methods and combination of different remote sensing data source, this thesis presents merits of each method ,and qualitatively analyzes the effect of spatial resolution, spectral resolution and time phase on merging image. (b) Automatic recognition of shallow landslide by RS image. The inventory of landslide is the base of landslide forecast and landslide study. If persistent collecting of landslide events, updating the geo-hazard inventory in time, and promoting prediction model incessantly, the accuracy of forecast would be boosted step by step. RS technique is a feasible method to obtain landslide information, which is determined by the feature of geo-hazard distribution. An automatic hierarchical approach is proposed to identify shallow landslides in vegetable region by the combination of multi-spectral RS imagery and DEM derivatives, and the experiment is also drilled to inspect its efficiency. (c) Hazard-causing factors obtaining. Accurate environmental factors are the key to analyze and predict the risk of regional geological hazard. As to predict huge debris flow, the main challenge is still to determine the startup material and its volume in debris flow source region. Exerting the merits of various RS technique, this thesis presents the methods to obtain two important hazard-causing factors, DEM and alteration mineral, and through spatial analysis, finds the relationship between hydrothermal clay alteration minerals and geo-hazards in the arid-hot valleys of Three Parallel Rivers region. (d) Applying support vector machine (SVM) to landslide susceptibility mapping. Introduce the latest and powerful statistical learning theory, SVM, to RGHE. SVM that proved an efficient statistic learning method can deal with two-class and one-class samples, with feature avoiding produce ‘pseudo’ samples. 55 years historical samples in a natural terrain of Hong Kong are used to assess this method, whose susceptibility maps obtained by one-class SVM and two-class SVM are compared to that obtained by logistic regression method. It can conclude that two-class SVM possesses better prediction efficiency than logistic regression and one-class SVM. However, one-class SVM, only requires failed cases, has an advantage over the other two methods as only "failed" case information is usually available in landslide susceptibility mapping. (e) Predicting the distribution of rainfall-induced landslides by time-series analysis. Rainfall is the most dominating factor to bring in landslides. More than 90% losing and casualty by landslides is introduced by rainfall, so predicting landslide sites under certain rainfall is an important geological evaluating issue. With full considering the contribution of stable factors (landslide susceptibility map) and dynamic factors (rainfall), the time-series linear regression analysis between rainfall and landslide risk mapis presented, and experiments based on true samples prove that this method is perfect in natural region of Hong Kong. The following 4 practicable or original findings are obtained: 1) The RS ways to enhance geo-hazards image, automatic recognize shallow landslides, obtain DEM and mineral are studied, and the detailed operating steps are given through examples. The conclusion is practical strongly. 2) The explorative researching about relationship between geo-hazards and alteration mineral in arid-hot valley of Jinshajiang river is presented. Based on standard USGS mineral spectrum, the distribution of hydrothermal alteration mineral is mapped by SAM method. Through statistic analysis between debris flows and hazard-causing factors, the strong correlation between debris flows and clay minerals is found and validated. 3) Applying SVM theory (especially one-class SVM theory) to the landslide susceptibility mapping and system evaluation for its performance is also carried out, which proves that advantages of SVM in this field. 4) Establishing time-serial prediction method for rainfall induced landslide distribution. In a natural study area, the distribution of landslides induced by a storm is predicted successfully under a real maximum 24h rainfall based on the regression between 4 historical storms and corresponding landslides.
Resumo:
Productivity prediction is a serious factor to oil reservoir management and working out economic plans so that it is paid great attention to all the time. Gudao Oil Field, which has been yielding more than 100 million tons of crude oil accumulatively since it was put into developing in 1970's as a complete set of oil field, now entering double extra high water-bearing period after productivity construction, stable production and depletion stage. It's main layer series of development is thought to be type of channel sand reservoir in east China. Form channel sand reservoir in upper Guantao Group of Shengli Oil Field, there are several large oil fields such as Gudao, Gudong and Chengdao etc. with almost one-third reserves of whole Shengli Oil Field. It is considered the common characteristics in this area would be that the layer is less developed, the sand distribution is sporadic, the connectivity is weak, the heterogeneity is strong in plane, the oil layer is unconsolidated with big porosity, high permeability and serious sanding, and the oil is heavy. Because of the restricted factors to productivity of this kind of reservoir, it is very significant to study the productivity prediction this kind of reservoir. By selecting the upstream fluvial reservoir in Guantao Group of Neogene system as researching object, the author studied the forecasting technology with heterogeneous reservoir. Firstly, the author constructed the 3D subtle geological model quantificationally through researching exploitation geology in the way of combination of dynamic and static methods. Secondly, by the aid of dynamic material obtained while producing, the author analyzed the oil distribution law and influencing factors, then finished dynamic oil reservoir description on the basis of static oil reservoir description. Thirdly, via comparing and analyzing all the forecasting methods of productivity existed, the author developed a set of method to forecast productivity of single well and oil field which fit to channel sand reservoir. At last, under the support of ORACLE database, with the advanced computer technology, the author programmed the software called 'Channel Sand Reservoir Prediction System'. Up to now, this system has been putting into use in Gudao Oil Field and very successful.
Resumo:
This paper builds the model of oil accumulation and achieves the prediction of exploration goal. It uses multiple subject means, the ways of synthetic research and the viewpoint of analyzing genesis, with the academic guidance of sedimentology, structural geology, petroleum geology and geochemistry, the basis of strata sequence frame and structural frame, the frame of "four history" - the burying history, the structural history, the filling history and the evolving history of oil, the masterstroke of hydrocarbon's generation, migration and accumulation, the aim of revealing the genetic relation between mature source rock and oil reservoir in space and time. Some achievements and viewpoints in this study are following. 1. It is proposed that the structural evolution in this area had many periods, and the structural movement of the Xiazijie group telophase formed the structural pattern for the first time. 2. The character of strata sequence in this area is divided by the character of episodic cycle firstly. The study of dividing the facies of single well and the facies of well tie is based on the data of single well. The character of sedimentary facies is con-structed initially. 3. It is believed that Jiamuhe group is the main source rock, which can supply considerable oil and gas resources for the first time. Some criterions of source rock such as the type ,the abundance in Jiamuhe group are analysed. Using the thermal history of source rock, we drawn a conclusion that the original type of source rock in Jiamuhe group is II_1-III, and the abundance achived the level of good source rock, and this set of source rock had contributed to this area. 4. The reservoir strata in this area are assessed and analysed with the reservoir evaluation. There are multi-type reservoirs, such as volcanic lava facies, sedimentary clast facies, continental belch facies. The physical property in reservoir strata is characterized by low porosity and low permeability. The study of diagenetic stage show that the diageneses in Jiamuhe group is A-Bsubage, and the reservoir room is mainly secondary corroded hollow and cleft. 5. The synthetic research on oil system in Jiamuhe group is made for the first time. The type of petroleum system is divided , and we consider that the petroleum system of Jiamuhe group is at the reliable rank. There are two critical time in oil accumulation through studying the critical time of oil accumulation : the early generation of hydrocarbon is oil, and the later is gas. 6. The mechanism of accumulation is analysed. We consider that the accu-mulation of oil in this area has many periods, and the early generated hydrocarbon is expeled by the later , and formed the character of zonal distribution in planar. 7. A bran-new model of oil and gas is proposed. Beneficial enrichment area of oil and gas is analyzed, which can be divided into three sections: Section I can be divided into two sections: I_1 and I_2. The lower subgroup of Jiamuhe is covered by the triassic layer of I_1 section. Fault zone and near the foot wall of fault are charactered with thick phase belt. Then the cover capability in this area is relatively poor, oil can migrate into triassic layer by vertical or lateral migration , and forms I_1 Kelamayi triassic oil pool consequently. The lower subgroup of Jiamuhe is covered by the triassic layer of I_2 section ,which is charactered with thin phase belt. Then the cover capability in this area is relatively good, and forms I_1 Kelamayi triassic oil pool consequently. Section II can be divided into two sections: II_1-I_(I~2). The cover of Jiamuhe group in section II_1 is the low resistivity segment in Wuerhe group, which has thin lithology and poor porosity and permeability. Oil and gas in Jiamuhe group can be covered to form beneficial accumulation area. There are some wells in this area, such as Ke 007 well, 561 well. The thick phase belt layer of Wuerhe high resistivity segment in section II_2 has unconformable relation with Jiamuhe group. The cover ability of the high resistivity segment is poor, petroleum in Jiamuhe can migrate into Wuerhe layer vertically. This area is the beneficial area for accumulating petroleum in Wuerhe layer. there are some wells in this area, such as Ke 75 well, Ke 76 well, Ke 77 well, Ke 78 well, Ke 79 well. Section III can also be divided into two sections: III_1 and III_2. Wuerhe group in section III_1 has unconformable relation with Jiamuhe group. There is thick lithology and poor cover in Wuerhe group, but the strata sequence evolution character of upper subgroup in Jiamuhe group has determined that it has lateral and vertical cover ability. thus, this area is petroleum abundant belt of jiamuhe group, which has the trap. Section III_2 is an area controled by wedgeout of Fengcheng group, Fengcheng group in this area has quite thick lithology so that It has beneficial resevoir phase belt. It can accumulate oil in itself or accept some oil in Jiamuhe group. Jiamuhe group has some oil accumulation condition in this area. Thus, section III_2 is jiamuhe-Fengcheng multiple petroleum accumulation belt, such as Ke 80 well. 8. The goal of exploration is suggested: Depositional trap or combination trap is the important aspect in later exploration. Both types of traps are the goal of the next drilling: Fault block trap in the east of 576 well and the NO. 2 fault block trap in the north of Ke 102 well It is suggested that we should study the law of oil and gas in Jiamuhe group and enhance the study of combination in forming reservoir and trap scale. We do some lithology forecast and reservoir diatropic forecast in order to know the area of oil and gas.
Resumo:
Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.
Resumo:
Guangxi Longtan Hydropower Station is not only a representative project of West Developing and Power Transmission from West to East in China, but also the second Hydropower Station to Three Gorges Project which is under construction in China. There are 770 X 104m3 creeping rock mass on the left bank slope in upper reaches, in which laid 9 water inlet tunnels and some underground plant buildings. Since the 435m high excavated slope threatens the security of the Dam, its deformation and stability is of great importance to the power station.Based on the Autodesk Map2004, Longtan Hydropower Station Monitoring Information System on Left Bank has been basically finished on the whole. Integrating the hydropower station monitoring information into Geographic Information System(GIS) environment, managers and engineers can dynamically gain the deformation information of the slop by query the symbols. By this means, designers can improve the correctness of analysis, and make a strategic and proper decision. Since the system is beneficial to effectively manage the monitoring-data, equitably save the cost of design and safe construction, and decrease the workload of the engineers, it is a successful application to the combination of hydropower station monitoring information management and computer information system technology.At the same time, on the basis of the geological analysis and rock mass toppling deformation and failure mechanism analysis of Longtan engineering left bank slope, the synthetic space-time analysis and influence factors analysis on the surface monitoring data and deep rock mass monitoring data of A-zone on left bank slope are carried on. It shows that the main intrinsic factor that effects the deformation of Zone A is the argillite limestone interbedding toppling structure, and its main external factors are rain and slope excavation. What's more, Degree of Reinforcement Demand(DRD) has been used to evaluate the slop reinforce effect of Zone A on left bank according to the Engineering Geomechanics-mate-Synthetics(EGMS). The result shows that the slop has been effective reinforced, and it is more stable after reinforce.At last, on the basis of contrasting with several forecast models, a synthetic forecast GRAV model has been presented and used to forecast the deformation of zone A on left bank in generating electricity period. The result indicates that GRAV model has good forecast precision, strong stability, and practical valuable reliability.