大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

Seasonal and interannual variability of primary and export production in the South China Sea: a three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical model study

To investigate the seasonal and interannual variations in biological productivity in the South China Sea (SCS), a Pacific basin-wide physical - biogeochemical model has been developed and used to estimate the biological productivity and export flux in the SCS. The Pacific circulation model, based on the Regional Ocean Model Systems (ROMS), is forced with daily air-sea fluxes derived from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis between 1990 and 2004. The biogeochemical processes are simulated with a carbon, Si(OH)(4), and nitrogen ecosystem (CoSiNE) model consisting of silicate, nitrate, ammonium, two phytoplankton groups (small phytoplankton and large phytoplankton), two zooplankton grazers (small micrograzers and large mesozooplankton), and two detritus pools. The ROMS-CoSiNE model favourably reproduces many of the observed features, such as ChI a, nutrients, and primary production (PP) in the SCS. The modelled depth-integrated PP over the euphotic zone (0-125 m) varies seasonally, with the highest value of 386 mg C m (-2) d (-1) during winter and the lowest value of 156 mg C m (-2) d (-1) during early summer. The annual mean value is 196 mg C m (-2) d (-1). The model-integrated annual mean new production (uptake of nitrate), in carbon units, is 64.4 mg C m (-2) d (-1) which yields an f-ratio of 0.33 for the entire SCS. The modelled export ratio (e-ratio: the ratio of export to PP) is 0.24 for the basin-wide SCS. The year-to-year variation of biological productivity in the SCS is weaker than the seasonal variation. The large phytoplankton group tends to dominate over the smaller phytoplankton group, and likely plays an important role in determining the interannual variability of primary and new production.

Distribution characteristics of matrix-bound phosphine along the coast of China and possible environmental controls

Matrix-bound phosphine (MBP) concentrations in surface sediments collected from 37 stations along the coast of China in 2006 are reported. MBP was found in all samples and the average concentration was 6.30 ng kg(-1) dry weight (dw). The distribution of MBP showed certain spatial variation characteristics with high MBP concentrations at stations near to the coast. The average concentrations of MBP in the northern Yellow Sea (NYS), the southern Yellow Sea (SYS), the northern area of East China Sea (NECS), the southern area of East China Sea (SECS), and South China Sea (SCS) were 5.57 +/- 3.78, 3.78 +/- 2.81, 5.27 +/- 3.07, 5.48 +/- 4.05 and 13.52 +/- 7.86 ng kg(-1) dw. respectively. The correlations between MBP and influencing factors, such as the sedimentary environmental characteristics (sediment type, the grain size, contents of phosphorous, organic matters and redox potential) and the aquatic environmental characteristics (temperature, salinity, depth and hydrodynamics) were studied. The results indicated that MBP was strongly influenced by various factors, such as total phosphorus (TP), organic phosphorus (OP), organic carbon (OC), the grain size and hydrodynamics, all of which not only offered reasonable interpretations for the distribution characteristics of MBP but also provided evidence to support the viewpoint that phosphine originated from OP decomposition. This work is the first comprehensive study of the distribution of MBP along the coast of China and its relationships with environmental factors which will lead to a better understanding of the phosphorus (P) biogeochemical cycle in the sea. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

南海北部陆缘深水区构造－热演化与烃源岩成熟度史研究

Abstract In order to provide basic data for evaluation of the petroleum potential in the deep water area of the northern margin of the South China Sea (SCS), present-day thermal regime and basin tectonothermal evolution are reconstructed and the maturation history of the Cenozoic major source rocks in the study area is derived. The present-day geothermal regime in the deep water area of the northern margin of SCS is defined according to the geothermal gradient, thermal properties and heat flow data. Tectonic subsidence history is reconstructed based on borehole and seismic data, and accordingly the stretching episodes are determined from the subsidence pattern. Heat flow history in the deep water area of the northern margin of SCS is estimated on a finite time, laterally non-uniform and multi-episode stretching model. Maturation history of the main source rocks in the study area is estimated through EASYRo% kinetic model and thermal history, and the potential of petroleum in the deep water area of the northern margin of SCS is evaluated based on the data above. The results show that the present-day geothermal regime in the deep water area of the northern margin of SCS is characterized by “hot basin” with high geothermal gradient (39.1±7.4℃/km) and high heat flow (77.5±14.8 mW/m2), and that the Qiongdongnan Basin (QDNB) underwent three stretching episodes and consequently suffered three heating episodes (Eocene, Oligocene and Pliocene time) with highest paleo-heat flow of 65～90 mW/m2 at the end of the Pliocene, that the Pearl River Mouth Basin (PRMB) two stretching and two heating episodes (Eocene, Oligocene time) with highest paleo-heat flow of 60～70 mW/m2 at the end of the Oligocene, and that the source rocks matured drastically responding to the heating episodes. There are four hydrocarbon generation kitchens in the deep water area of the northern margin of SCS which are favor of its bright petroleum perspective. Tectonothermal analysis indicates that the present-day geothermal regime which is characterized with “hot basin” in the deep water area of the PRMB resulted mainly from the Cenozoic stretching as well as faulting and magmatic activities during the Neotectonic period, and that the Pliocene heating episode of the QDNB is coupled with the transition from sinistral to dextral gliding of the Red Rive fault, and that the deep water basins in the northern margin of SCS are typical of multiple rifting which caused multi-episode heating process.

南海张裂大陆边缘数值模拟研究

The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the largest marginal seas in the western Pacific, which is located at the junction of Eurasian plate, Pacific plate and Indian-Australian plate. It was formed by continent breakup and sea-floor spreading in Cenozoic. The complicated interaction among the three major plates made tectonic movement complex and geological phenomena very rich in this area. The SCS is an ideal place to study the formation and evolution of rifted continental margin and sea-floor spreading since it is old enough to have experienced the major stages of the basin evolution but still young enough to have preserved its original nature. As the demand for energy grows day by day in our country, the deep water region of the northern continental margin in the SCS has become a focus of oil and gas exploration because of its huge hydrocarbon potential. Therefore, to study the rifted continental margin of the SCS not only can improve our understanding of the formation and evolution processes of rifted continental margin, but also can provide theoretical support for hydrocarbon exploration in rifted continental margin. This dissertation mainly includes five topics as follows: (1) Various classic lithosphere stretching models are reviewed, and the continuous non-uniform stretching model is modified to make it suitable for the case where the extension of lithopheric mantle exceeds that of the crust. Then simple/pure shear flexural cantilever model is applied to model the basement geometries of SO49-18 profile in the northern continental margin of the SCS. By fitting the basements obtained by using 2DMove software with modeling results, it is found that the reasonable effective elastic thickness is less than 5km in this region. According to this result, it is assumed that there is weak lower crust in the northern continental margin in the SCS. (2) We research on the methods for stretching factor estimation based on various lithosphere stretching models, and apply the method based on multiple finite rifting model to estimate the stretching factors of several wells and profiles in the northern continental margin of the SCS. (3) We improve one-dimension strain rate inversion method with conjugate gradient method, and apply it to invert the strain rate of several wells in the northern continental margin of the SCS. Two-dimension strain rate forward modeling is carried out, and the modeling results show that effective elastic thickness is a key parameter to control basin’s geometry. (4) We simulate divergent upwelling mantle flow model using finite difference method, and apply this newly developed model to examine the formation mechanism of the northwest and central sub-basin in the SCS. (5) We inverse plate thickness and basal temperature of oceanic lithosphere using sea-floor ages and bathymetries of the North Pacific and the North Atlantic based on varied-parameters plate model, in which the heat conductivity, heat capacity and coefficient of thermal expansion depend on temperature or depth. A new empirical formula is put forward based the inversed parameters, which depicts the relation among sea-floor age, bathymetry and heat flow. Then various similar empirical formulae, including the newly developed one, are applied to examine the sea-floor spread issue in the SCS based on the heat flow and bathymetry data of the abyssal sub-basin.

南海沉积物中的放射虫及其古环境意义

In this paper a systematic study of radiolarian from surface sediments of all the South China Sea (SCS) has initially been done for its deposit ecology, biogeography and paleoenvironment significance. The paleoenvironment information obtained by radiolarian analysis and other sedimentary method for core samples is also made use as the synthesis proxy for revealing the paleoenvironment changes in the SCS and the relations of it with the past globe change during last 200ka. Some results come out of this study as: 1) Radiolarian skeleton chemistry composition and skeleton morphological features were analyzed, chiefly dividing them as 15 types of basic morphological features: 2) Analysis of biogeographical feature demonstrates that the fauna in SCS obviously belonging to a transitional type of west Pacific - Indian Ocean and has a particularity of itself: 3) Tendency of radiolarian population distribution is lower in shallow continental shelf area, increasing gradually toward the abyssal region; 4) Nine character boundaries of radiolarian depth distribution in the sediments from whole the South China Sea may be recognized; 5)Two radiolarian transfer functions for paleotemperature and paleo-primary productivity in the South China Sea have also been established respectively. The equation of transfer function for winter paleotemperature has only an average estimated error of 0.18678 ℃ and the equation for paleo-primary productivity has the calculation accuracy of 85.31%; 6) Changes of radiolarian individuals, numbers of species and H(S) values in core NS93-5 show the completely different oceanic geographical circumstance and ecology structure in the Last Maximum Glacial with present; 7) The abundance variation of some raiolarian warm species and cold species indicate the changes of water masse features along with the paleoenvironment evolution, showing that this sea area clearly is controlled in 6 issues of oxygen isotopes by the cold water masses; 8) By comparative analysis of δ ~(18)O curves with GISP2;s ice core can core 17940 of the northern SCS, the occurring characters of D/O's events 1-21 and Heinrich's events H1-H6 have been revealed in this sea area by core NS93-5, which prove the existence of paleoclimatic tele-connections between the southern SCS and Arctic region since about 200ka BP.