48 resultados para Hierarchical regression.
Resumo:
On the issue of geological hazard evaluation（GHE）, taking remote sensing and GIS systems as experimental environment, assisting with some programming development, this thesis combines multi-knowledges of geo-hazard mechanism, statistic learning, remote sensing (RS), high-spectral recognition, spatial analysis, digital photogrammetry as well as mineralogy, and selects geo-hazard samples from Hong Kong and Three Parallel River region as experimental data, to study two kinds of core questions of GHE, geo-hazard information acquiring and evaluation model. In the aspect of landslide information acquiring by RS, three detailed topics are presented, image enhance for visual interpretation, automatic recognition of landslide as well as quantitative mineral mapping. As to the evaluation model, the latest and powerful data mining method, support vector machine (SVM), is introduced to GHE field, and a serious of comparing experiments are carried out to verify its feasibility and efficiency. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method to forecast the distribution of landslides if rainfall in future is known baseing on historical rainfall and corresponding landslide susceptibility map. The details are as following: (a) Remote sensing image enhancing methods for geo-hazard visual interpretation. The effect of visual interpretation is determined by RS data and image enhancing method, for which the most effective and regular technique is image merge between high-spatial image and multi-spectral image, but there are few researches concerning the merging methods of geo-hazard recognition. By the comparing experimental of six mainstream merging methods and combination of different remote sensing data source, this thesis presents merits of each method ,and qualitatively analyzes the effect of spatial resolution, spectral resolution and time phase on merging image. (b) Automatic recognition of shallow landslide by RS image. The inventory of landslide is the base of landslide forecast and landslide study. If persistent collecting of landslide events, updating the geo-hazard inventory in time, and promoting prediction model incessantly, the accuracy of forecast would be boosted step by step. RS technique is a feasible method to obtain landslide information, which is determined by the feature of geo-hazard distribution. An automatic hierarchical approach is proposed to identify shallow landslides in vegetable region by the combination of multi-spectral RS imagery and DEM derivatives, and the experiment is also drilled to inspect its efficiency. (c) Hazard-causing factors obtaining. Accurate environmental factors are the key to analyze and predict the risk of regional geological hazard. As to predict huge debris flow, the main challenge is still to determine the startup material and its volume in debris flow source region. Exerting the merits of various RS technique, this thesis presents the methods to obtain two important hazard-causing factors, DEM and alteration mineral, and through spatial analysis, finds the relationship between hydrothermal clay alteration minerals and geo-hazards in the arid-hot valleys of Three Parallel Rivers region. (d) Applying support vector machine (SVM) to landslide susceptibility mapping. Introduce the latest and powerful statistical learning theory, SVM, to RGHE. SVM that proved an efficient statistic learning method can deal with two-class and one-class samples, with feature avoiding produce ‘pseudo’ samples. 55 years historical samples in a natural terrain of Hong Kong are used to assess this method, whose susceptibility maps obtained by one-class SVM and two-class SVM are compared to that obtained by logistic regression method. It can conclude that two-class SVM possesses better prediction efficiency than logistic regression and one-class SVM. However, one-class SVM, only requires failed cases, has an advantage over the other two methods as only "failed" case information is usually available in landslide susceptibility mapping. (e) Predicting the distribution of rainfall-induced landslides by time-series analysis. Rainfall is the most dominating factor to bring in landslides. More than 90% losing and casualty by landslides is introduced by rainfall, so predicting landslide sites under certain rainfall is an important geological evaluating issue. With full considering the contribution of stable factors (landslide susceptibility map) and dynamic factors (rainfall), the time-series linear regression analysis between rainfall and landslide risk mapis presented, and experiments based on true samples prove that this method is perfect in natural region of Hong Kong. The following 4 practicable or original findings are obtained: 1) The RS ways to enhance geo-hazards image, automatic recognize shallow landslides, obtain DEM and mineral are studied, and the detailed operating steps are given through examples. The conclusion is practical strongly. 2) The explorative researching about relationship between geo-hazards and alteration mineral in arid-hot valley of Jinshajiang river is presented. Based on standard USGS mineral spectrum, the distribution of hydrothermal alteration mineral is mapped by SAM method. Through statistic analysis between debris flows and hazard-causing factors, the strong correlation between debris flows and clay minerals is found and validated. 3) Applying SVM theory (especially one-class SVM theory) to the landslide susceptibility mapping and system evaluation for its performance is also carried out, which proves that advantages of SVM in this field. 4) Establishing time-serial prediction method for rainfall induced landslide distribution. In a natural study area, the distribution of landslides induced by a storm is predicted successfully under a real maximum 24h rainfall based on the regression between 4 historical storms and corresponding landslides.
Resumo:
Based on the research of predictors of VOC, this study explores the predictive effect of factors, such as generation, urban/rural context, collectivism/individualism orientation, family value, independent/interdependent self, adult attachment, on the Emotional and Traditional factors of VOC. Considering the hierarchical data structure of the VOC study, which resulted from the original research design, this dissertation applies Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) after using traditional regression. A comparison between the results from the tow statistical methods is made, and the results are as follows: 1) Reliability coefficients of questionnaires used in this study are satisfactory, and most of them can be used in further research. 2) Samples from different generation and urban/rural context show significant differences on the score of collectivism/individualism orientation, family value, independent/interdependent self, adult attachment, and VOC. 3) Regression equations with VOC as outcome variable differ from each other when using data from sample with restricted generation or urban/rural context. 4) Results by HLM shows that interdependent self and mother identity have positive effect on emotional factor of VOC. Emotional factor’s variation on family level is not significant. 5) Results by HLM shows that Individualism, Interdependent Self and Grandmother Identity can predict Traditional factor of VOC. Traditional factor’s variation is significant on family level, which can be explained by family income and it’s area-urban or rural. Based on the results above, the researcher concludes that a) generation identity and urban/rural context have important effect on VOC; b) Interdependent Self is an important predictive factor of VOC’s Emotional factor, which is nearly subjective to other factors; d) VOC’s traditional factor varies with other factors, which show its strong relation with culture and tradition; e) more exact results can be gotten from HLM analysis, which beyond tradition regression.
Resumo:
Mechanisms underlying cognitive psychology and cerebral physiological of mental arithmetic with increasing are were studied by using behavioral methods and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). I. Studies on mechanism underlying cognitive psychology of mental arithmetic with increasing age These studies were accomplished in 172 normal subjects ranging from 20 to 79 years of age with above 12 years of education (Mean = 1.51, SD = 1.5). Five mental arithmetic tasks, "1000-1", "1000-3", "1000-7", "1000-13", "1000-17", were designed with a serial calculation in which subjects sequentially subtracted the same prime number (1, 3, 7, 13, 17) from another number 1000. The variables studied were mental arithmetic, age, working memory, and sensory-motor speed, and four studies were conducted: (1) Aging process of mental arithmetic with different difficulties, (2) mechanism of aging of mental arithmetic processing. (3) effects of working memory and sensory-motor speed on aging process of mental arithmetic, (4) model of cognitive aging of mental arithmetic, with statistical methods such as MANOVA, hierarchical multiple regression, stepwise regression analysis, structural equation modelling (SEM). The results were indicated as following: Study 1: There was an obvious interaction between age and mental arithmetic, in which reaction time (RT) increased with advancing age and more difficult mental arithmetic, and mental arithmetic efficiency (the ratio of accuracy to RT) deceased with advancing age and more difficult mental arithmetic; Mental arithmetic efficiency with different difficulties decreased in power function: Study 2: There were two mediators (latent variables) in aging process of mental arithmetic, and age had an effect on mental arithmetic with different difficulties through the two mediators; Study 3: There were obvious interactions between age and working memory, working memory and mental arithmetic; Working memory and sensory-motor speed had effects on aging process of mental arithmetic, in which the effect of working memory on aging process of mental arithmetic was about 30-50%, and the effect of sensory-motor speed on aging process of mental arithmetic was above 35%. Study 4: Age, working memory, and sensory-motor speed had effects on two latent variables (factor 1 and factor 2), then had effects on mental arithmetic with different difficulties through factor 1 which was relative to memory component, and factor 2 which relative to speed component and had an effect on factor 1 significantly. II. Functional magnetic resonance imaging study on metal arithmetic with increasing age This study was accomplished in 14 normal right-handed subjects ranging from 20 to 29 (7 subjects) and 60 to 69 (7 subjects) years of age by using functional magnetic resonance imaging apparatus, a superconductive Signa Horizon 1.5T MRI system. Two mental arithmetic tasks, "1000-3" and "1000-17", were designed with a serial calculation in which subjects sequentially subtracted the same prime number (3 or 17) from another number 1000 silently, and controlling task, "1000-0", in which subjects continually rehearsed number 1000 silently, was regarded as baseline, based on current "baseline-task" OFF-ON subtraction pattern. Original data collected by fMRI apparatus, were analyzed off-line in SUN SPARC working station by using current STIMULATE software. The analytical steps were composed of within-subject analysis, in which brain activated images about mental arithmetic with two difficulties were obtained by using t-test, and between-subject analysis, in which features of brain activation about mental arithmetic with two difficulties, the relationship between left and right hemisphere during mental arithmetic, and age differences of brain activation in young and elderly adults were examined by using non-parameter Wilcoxon test. The results were as following:
