过去2000年中国温度变化研究的几个问题

根据最近重建的中国东部地区过去2000年冬半年温度距平序列,结合最近其他一些相关研究结果,对过去2000年中国温度变化序列的重建方法、小冰期及魏晋南北朝冷期的起迄时间与寒冷状况、中世纪暖期与隋唐暖期的温暖程度、过去2000年中国冷暖变化的幅度与速率、温度变化的千年波动周期、20世纪气候增暖是否超出过去2000年气候波动的最大范围及20世纪暖期历史相似型等几个问题进行了综合评述.

1980-2000年中国LUCC对气候变化的响应

基于中国1980-2000年气候数据及两期土地利用／土地覆盖(LUCC)数据,利用Holdridge植被生态分区模型、重心模型及土地利用程度模型,分析气候变化及人类活动对中国植被覆盖及土地利用的影响程度及变化趋势。1980-2000年间,中国大部分地区温度升高,降水增多。气候变化不仅影响了中国植被群落分区,更进一步影响了植被群落的生长状况;东北、华北、内蒙古高原等区域未利用土地型向草地和灌木生态类型转换,草地和灌木型生态类型向林地和耕地型转换;又因为1980-2000年间中国经济的发展,东部沿海区域城市乡村建设用地及交通用地的增多,使土地利用类型南农业耕地型向建设用地型发展,导致土地利用程度指数的升高。气候变化及经济发展的双重作用,导致中国土地利用程度重心20年来向东北方向移动了54km,东西方向土地利用程度偏移强度,气候占81％,人类活动占19％,南北方向土地利用程度偏移强度,气候占85％,人类活动占15％。

1990～2000年中国土壤碳氮蓄积量与土地利用变化

基于2473个土壤剖面资料和1980年代末~1990年代末陆地卫星TM影像分析中国1990~2000年林地、草地、耕地之间的土地利用变化对土壤碳氮蓄积量的影响。IPCC建议的国家温室气体清单方法计算表明从1990~2000年中国林地、草地、耕地土壤(30cm)有机碳氮库分别损失了77.6±35.2TgC(1Tg=106t)和5.6±2.6TgN,年均损失约7.76TgC/yr和0.56TgN/yr,其中耕地土壤碳库分别增加了79.0±7.7TgC和9.0±0.7TgN,草地土壤碳氮蓄积量分别损失了100.7±25.9TgC和9.8±2.2TgN,林地土壤碳氮蓄积量分别损失了55.9±17.0TgC和4.9±1.1TgN。同时根据中国6大行政区林地、耕地和草地之间的相互转换面积、土壤有机碳氮密度的变化率进行估算,表明土壤(30cm和100cm)有机碳氮蓄积量分别损失了53.7TgC、5.1TgN和99.5TgC、9.4TgN。由于中国不同地区土地利用变化的空间格局差异显著,从而导致东北地区土壤碳氮蓄积量变化较大,而华东地区变化较小。

GIS环境下1999～2000年中国东北参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征分析

为了实现农业持续发展和保护生态环境,该文应用Penman-Monteith公式和GIS的空间分析功能,通过建立区域参考作物蒸散量的空间分布模型计算了中国东北地区自20世纪90年代以来参考作物蒸散量的时空变化特征。研究发现,20世纪90年代东北地区5～9月份日平均蒸散量呈逐年增大趋势,并以每年0.04mm的速度递增;其中5、6、7、8、9各月份绝大部分地区日均蒸散量年变化呈增加的趋势,东北平原年增长超过0.05mm,≥0.4mm蒸散地区年平均增长面积为248.73万hm2。5月份和8月份大部分地区日均蒸散量呈减少的趋势,6、7、9月份大部分地区日均蒸散量呈增加的趋势。5月和8月蒸散量的减少以及6月到9月蒸散量的增加都由东北(三江平原)向西南(辽河平原)迁移,并在空间范围上表现出一定的收缩趋势。日均蒸散量≥0.4mm蒸散地区的重心呈有规律的波动,5～9月份平均重心年际波动主要位于呼伦贝尔高原和西辽河平原两个地区,5、6、7、8、9月份重心的波动轨迹基本为由西北—东北—西南地区,空间上也逐渐由较集中变为较分散。

Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference

Chinese Academy of Sciences [KZCX2-YW-315, KZCX2-YW-Q1-01]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [40625002, 90502009, 200905006]; Office of Science (BER), U. S. Department of Energy ; EU/FP7 [212250]

Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature in China and the effects on cropping systems, 1980s to 2000

Change in thermal conditions can substantially affect crop growth, cropping systems, agricultural production and land use. In the present study, we used annual accumulated temperatures > 10 degrees C (AAT10) as an indicator to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in thermal conditions across China from the late 1980s to 2000, with a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 km. We also investigated the effects of the spatio-temporal changes on cultivated land use and cropping systems. We found that AAT10 has increased on a national scale since the late 1980s, Particularly, 3.16 x 10(5) km(2) of land moved from the spring wheat zone (AAT10: 1600 to 3400 degrees C) to the winter wheat zone (AAT10: 3400 to 4500 degrees C). Changes in thermal conditions had large influences on cultivated land area and cropping systems. The areas of cultivated land have increased in regions with increasing AAT10, and the cropping rotation index has increased since the late 1980s. Single cropping was replaced by 3 crops in 2 years in many regions, and areas of winter wheat cultivation were shifted northward in some areas, such as in the eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and in western Liaoning and Jilin Provinces.

Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995-2000

It is more and more acknowledged that land-use/cover dynamic change has become a key subject urgently to be dealt with in the study of global environmental change. Supported by the Landsat TM digital images, spatial patterns and temporal variation of land-use change during 1995 -2000 are studied in the paper. According to the land-use dynamic degree model, supported by the 1km GRID data of land-use change and the comprehensive characters of physical, economic and social features, a dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed to disclose the spatial pattern of land-use change processes. Generally speaking, in the traditional agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plains, Yangtze River Delta and Sichuan Basin, the built-up and residential areas occupy a great proportion of arable land, and in the interlock area of farming and pasturing of northern China and the oases agricultural zones, the reclamation I of arable land is conspicuously driven by changes of production conditions, economic benefits and climatic conditions. The implementation of "returning arable land into woodland or grassland" policies has won initial success in some areas, but it is too early to say that the trend of deforestation has been effectively reversed across China. In this paper, the division of dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed, for the sake of revealing the temporal and spatial features of land-use change and laying the foundation for the study of regional scale land-use changes. Moreover, an integrated study, including studies of spatial pattern and temporal process of land-use change, is carried out in this paper, which is an interesting try on the comparative studies of spatial pattern on change process and the change process of spatial pattern of land-use change.

STUDY ON THE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF LAND-USE CHANGE AND ANALYSES OF DRIVING FORCES IN NORTHEASTERN CHINA DURING 1990-2000

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is, in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. Supported by the dynamic serving system of national resources, including both the environment database and GIS technology, this paper analyzed the land-use change in northeastern China in the past ten years (1990 - 2000). It divides northeastern China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree (DD) of land-use: woodland/grassland - arable land conversion zone, dry land - paddy field conversion zone, urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing, and reclamation and abandoned zone. In the past ten years, land-use change of northeastern China can be generalized as follows: increase of cropland area was obvious, paddy field and dry land increased by 74. 9 and 276. 0 thousand ha respectively; urban area expanded rapidly, area of town and rural residence increased by 76. 8 thousand ha; area of forest and grassland decreased sharply with the amount of 1399. 0 and 1521. 3 thousand ha respectively; area of water body and unused land increased by 148. 4 and 513. 9 thousand ha respectively. Besides a comprehensive analysis of the spatial patterns of land use, this paper also discusses the driving forces in each land-use dynamic zones. The study shows that some key biophysical factors affect conspicuously the conversion of different land- use types. In this paper, the relationships between land- use conversion and DEM, accnmlated temperature(>= 10 degrees C) and precipitation were analysed and represented. We conclude that the land- use changes in northeast China resulted from the change of macro social and economic factors and local physical elements. Rapid population growth and management changes, in some sense, can explain the shaping of woodland/grassland - cropland conversion zone. The conversion from dry land to paddy field in the dry land - paddy field conversion zone, apart from the physical elements change promoting the expansion of paddy field, results from two reasons: one is that the implementation of market-economy in China has given farmers the right to decide what they plant and how they plant their crops, the other factor is originated partially from the change of dietary habit with the social and economic development. The conversion from paddy field to dry land is caused primarily by the shortfall of irrigation water, which in turn is caused by poor water allocation managed by local governments. The shaping of the reclamation and abandoned zone is partially due to the lack of environment protection consciousness among pioneer settlers. The reason for the conversion from grassland to cropland is the relatively higher profits of fanning than that of pasturing in the interlocked zone of farming and pasturing. In northeastern China, the rapid expansion of built-up areas results from two factors: the first is its small number of towns; the second comes from the huge potential for expansion of existing towns and cities. It is noticeable that urban expansion in the northeastern China is characterized by gentle topographic relief and low population density. Physiognomy, transportation and economy exert great influences on the urban expansion.

Recent 2000-year geological records of mud in the inner shelf of the East China Sea and their climatic implications

AXIS(14)C dating and grain-size analysis for Core DD2, located at the north of the Yangtze River-derived mud off the Zhejiang-Fujian coasts in the inner shelf of the East China Sea, provide us a high-resolution grain-size distribution curve varying with depth and time. Data in the upper mud layer of Core DD2 indicate that there are at least 9 abrupt grain-size increasing in recent 2000 years, with each corresponding very well with the low-temperature events in Chinese history, which might result from the periodical strengthening of the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), including the first-revealed maximum temperature lowering event at around 990 a BP. At the same time, the finer grain size section in Core DD2 agrees well with the Sui-Tang Warming Period (600-1000 a AD) defined previously by Zhu Kezhen, during which the climate had a warm, cold and warm fluctuation, with a dominated cooling period of 750-850 a AD. The Little Ice Age (LIA) can also be identified in the core. It starts around 1450 a AD and was followed by a subsequent cooling events at 1510, 1670 and 1840 a AD. Timing of these cold events revealed here still needs to be further verified owing to some current uncertainty of dating we used in this study.

用Windows 2000构建企业网的安全体系

阐述了一种用Ｗｉｎｄｏｗｓ２０００构建企业Ｉｎｔｒａｎｅｔ的原理，并给出了一个应用实例，该方法适合中小企业以较高性价比，比较低的使用、维护费用通过公共网建立ＶＰＮ，并能安全地与Ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ相连接，是一种切实可行的方案．