Estimation of gas hydrate saturation using constrained sparse spike inversion: Case study from the northern South China Sea

Bottom-simulating reflectors (BSRs) were observed beneath the seafloor in the northern continental margin of the South China Sea (SCS). Acoustic impedance profile was derived by Constrained Sparse Spike Inversion (CSSI) method to provide information on rock properties and to estimate gas hydrate or free gas saturations in the sediments where BSRs are present. In general, gas hydrate-bearing sediments have positive impedance anomalies and free gas-bearing sediments have negative impedance anomalies. Based on well log data and Archie's equation, gas hydrate saturation can be estimated. But in regions where well log data is not available, a quantitative estimate of gas hydrate or free gas saturation is inferred by fitting the theoretical acoustic impedance to sediment impedance obtained by CSSI. Our study suggests that gas hydrate saturation in the Taixinan Basin is about 10 - 20% of the pore space, with the highest value of 50%, and free gas saturation below BSR is about 2 - 3% of the pore space, that can rise to 8 - 10% at a topographic high. The free gas is non-continuous and has low content in the southeastern slope of the Dongsha Islands. Moreover, BSR in the northern continental margin of the SCS is related to the presence of free gas. BSR is strong where free gas occurs.

The characteristics of fluid potential in mud diapirs associated with gas hydrates in the Okinawa Trough

Many mud diapirs have been identified in the southern Okinawa Trough from a seismic survey using R/V KEXUE I in 2001. The movement and accumulation of free gas related to mud diapirs are discussed in detail by an analysis of fluid potential which is based upon velocity data. It can be found that free gas moves from the higher fluid potential strata to the lower ones and the gas hydrate comes into being during free gas movement meeting the proper criteria of temperature and pressure. In fact, gas hydrates have been found in the upper layers above the mud diapirs and in host rocks exhibiting other geophysical characteristics. As the result of the formation of the gas hydrate, the free gas bearing strata are enclosed by the gas hydrate bearing strata. Due to the high pressure anomalies of the free gas bearing strata the fluid potential increases noticeably. It can then be concluded that the high fluid potential anomaly on the low fluid potential background may be caused by the presence of the free gas below the gas hydrate bearing strata.

Neural network retrieval of ocean surface parameters from SSM/I data

A new algorithm based on the multiparameter neural network is proposed to retrieve wind speed (WS), sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface air temperature, and relative humidity ( RH) simultaneously over the global oceans from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) observations. The retrieved geophysical parameters are used to estimate the surface latent heat flux and sensible heat flux using a bulk method over the global oceans. The neural network is trained and validated with the matchups of SSM/I overpasses and National Data Buoy Center buoys under both clear and cloudy weather conditions. In addition, the data acquired by the 85.5-GHz channels of SSM/I are used as the input variables of the neural network to improve its performance. The root-mean-square (rms) errors between the estimated WS, SST, sea surface air temperature, and RH from SSM/I observations and the buoy measurements are 1.48 m s(-1), 1.54 degrees C, 1.47 degrees C, and 7.85, respectively. The rms errors between the estimated latent and sensible heat fluxes from SSM/I observations and the Xisha Island ( in the South China Sea) measurements are 3.21 and 30.54 W m(-2), whereas those between the SSM/ I estimates and the buoy data are 4.9 and 37.85 W m(-2), respectively. Both of these errors ( those for WS, SST, and sea surface air temperature, in particular) are smaller than those by previous retrieval algorithms of SSM/ I observations over the global oceans. Unlike previous methods, the present algorithm is capable of producing near-real-time estimates of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes for the global oceans from SSM/I data.

Temperature phase tilt in unstable baroclinic waves

A general property on the phase relation in linear baroclinic instability is proved analytically: in a potential vorticity homogenization regime, the complex geometry of the quasigeostrophic equations determines that the phase lines of temperature and pressure disturbances tilt with height in opposite directions.

Dynamics of the buoyant plume off the Pearl River Estuary in summer

Field measurements of salinity, wind and river discharge and numerical simulations of hydrodynamics from 1978 to 1984 are used to investigate the dynamics of the buoyant plume off the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), China during summer. The studies have shown that there are four major horizontal buoyant plume types in summer: Offshore Bulge Spreading (Type I), West Alongshore Spreading (Type II), East Offshore Spreading (Type III), and Symmetrical Alongshore Spreading (Type IV). River mouth conditions, winds and ambient coastal currents have inter-influences to the transport processes of the buoyant plume. It is found that all of the four types are surface-advected plumes by analysing the vertical characteristic of the plumes, and the monthly variations of the river discharge affect the plume size dominantly. The correlation coefficient between the PRE plume size and the river discharge reaches 0.85 during the high river discharge season. A wind strength index has been introduced to examine the wind effect. It is confirmed that winds play a significant role in forming the plume morphology. The alongshore wind stress and the coastal currents determine the alongshore plume spreading. The impact of the ambient currents such as Dongsha Current and South China Sea (SCS) Warm Current on the plume off the shelf has also assessed. The present study has demonstrated that both the river discharge and wind conditions affect the plume evolution.

Interannual horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: assimilation versus TAO analysis

The interannual anomalies of horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean in an assimilation experiment are studied and compared with existing observational analyses. The assimilation builds upon a hindcast study that has produced a good simulation of the observed equatorial currents and optimizes the simulation of the Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) data. The comparison suggests that the assimilation has improved the simulation of the interannual horizontal heat advection of the surface mixed layer significantly. During periods of interrupted current measurements, the assimilation is shown to produce more meaningful anomalies of the heat advection than the interpolation of the observational data does. The assimilation also shows that the eddy heat flux due to the correlation between high-frequency current and SST variations, which is largely overlooked by the existing observational analyses, is important for the interannual SST balance over the equatorial Pacific. The interannual horizontal heat advection anomalies are found to be sensitive to SST errors where oceanic currents are strong, which is a challenge for ENSO prediction. The study further suggests that the observational analyses of the tropical SST balance based on the TAO and the Reynolds SST data contain significant errors due to the large gradient errors in the Reynolds SST data, which are amplified into the advection anomalies by the large equatorial currents.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Equivalent-barotropic definition of tropospheric mean temperature

An equivalent-barotropic (EB) description of the tropospheric temperature field is derived from the geostrophic empirical mode (GEM) in the form of a scalar function Gamma(p, phi), where p is pressure and phi is 300-850-mb thickness. Baroclinic parameter phi plays the role of latitude at each longitudinal section. Compared with traditional Eulerian-mean methods, GEM defines a mean field in baroclinic streamfunction space with a time scale much longer than synoptic variability. It prompts an EB concept that is only based on a baroclinic field. Monthly GEM fields are diagnosed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and account for more than 90% of the tropospheric thermal variance. The circumglobal composite of GEM fields exhibits seasonal, zonal, and hemispheric asymmetries, with larger rms errors occurring in winter and in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Zonally asymmetric features and planetary deviation from EB are seen in the NH winter GEM. Reconstruction of synoptic sections and correlation analysis reveal that the tropospheric temperature field is EB at the leading order and has a 1-day phase lag behind barotropic variations in extratropical regions.

Progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies in China

This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea interaction, namely air-sea interaction related to the tropical Pacific Ocean, monsoon-related air-sea interaction, air-sea interaction in the north Pacific Ocean, air-sea interaction in the Indian Ocean, air-sea interactions in the global oceans, field experiments, and oceanic cruise surveys. However more attention has been paid to the first and the second aspects because a large number of papers in the reference literature for preparing and organizing this paper are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO process with its climatic effects and dynamics, and the monsoon-related air-sea interaction. The literature also involves various phenomena with their different time and spatial scales such as intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the atmosphere/ocean interaction system, reflecting the contemporary themes in the four-year period at the beginning of an era from the post-TOGA to CLIVAR studies. Apparently, it is a difficult task to summarize the great progress in this area, as it is extracted from a large quantity of literature, although the authors tried very hard.

EAWM-related air-sea-land interaction and the Asian summer monsoon circulation

Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EAWM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EAWM activity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EAWM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EAWM-related air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EAWM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EAWM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EAWM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The active role of the EAWM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent seasons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displacement of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EAWM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EAWM years remains uncertain.

An analysis of the recent severe storm surge disaster events in China

The economic loss caused by the storm surge disasters is much higher than that caused by any other marine disaster in China, the loss from the severe storm surge disaster being the highest. Statistics show that there were 62 typhoon landings over the east-southeast coast of China since 1990, three of which, occurring in 1992, 1994 and 1997, respectively, caused the most severe damage. The direct economic losses due to these events are 9.3, 17.0 and 30 billion yuan (RMB, or about 1.7, 2.6 and 3.8 billion USD, respectively), which is much greater than the loss of 5.5 billion yuan (RMB) on an average every year during the 1989-1991 period. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the damage caused by the three events and presents an overview of progress of precautions against storm surge disaster in China. The suggested counter measures to mitigate the loss from the severe storm surge disasters in China is as follows: (1) Raise the whole society awareness of precaution against severe storm surge disaster; (2) Work out a new plan for building sea walls; (3) Improve and perfect the available warning and disaster relief command system; (4) Develop the insurance service in order to promptly mitigate the loss caused by severe storm surge disaster event.

Equatorial pacific SSTA-related decadal variations of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate

Based on analysis of NCEP reanalysis data and SST indices of the recent 50 years, decadal changes of the potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies were investigated. Autocorrelation of Nino3 SST anomalies (SSTA) and correlation between atmospheric anomalies fields and Nino3 SSTA exhibit obvious variation in different decades, which indicates that Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies has significant decadal changes. Time around 1977 is not only a shift point of climate on the interdecadal time scale but also a catastrophe point of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate. As a whole, ENSO and the PNA pattern in boreal winter are more predictable in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s, while the Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of the Indian monsoon and the East Asian Monsoon is lower in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s.

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model and ENSO prediction study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

Analysis of the sea-level variability along the Chinese coast and estimation of the impact of a CO2-perturbed atmospheric circulation

The relationship between monthly sea-level data measured at stations located along the Chinese coast and concurrent large-scale atmospheric forcing in the period 1960-1990 is examined. It is found that sea-level varies quite coherently along the whole coast, despite the geographical extension of the station set. A canonical correlation analysis between sea-level and sea-level pressure (SLP) indicates that a great part of the sea-level variability can be explained by the action of the wind stress on the ocean surface. The relationship between sea-level and sea-level pressure is analyzed separately for the summer and winter half-years. In winter, one factor affecting sea-level variability at all stations is the SLP contrast between the continent and the Pacific Ocean, hence the intensity of the winter Monsoon circulation. Another factor that affects coherently all stations is the intensity of the zonal circulation at mid-latitudes. In the summer half year, on the other hand, the influence of SLP on sea-level is spatially less coherent: the stations in the Yellow Sea are affected by a more localized circulation anomaly pattern, whereas the rest of the stations is more directly connected to the intensity of the zonal circulation. Based on this analysis, statistical models (different for summer and winter) to hindcast coastal sealevel anomalies from the large-scale SLP field are formulated. These models have been tested by fitting their internal parameters in a test period and reproducing reasonably the sea-level evolution in an independent period. These statistical models are also used to estimate the contribution of the changes of the atmospheric circulation on sea-level along the Chinese coast in an altered climate. For this purpose the ouput of 150 year-long experiment with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model ECHAM1-LSG has been analyzed, in which the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was continuously increased from 1940 until 2090, according to the Scenario A projection of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. In this experiment the meridional (zonal) circulation relevant for sea-level tends to become weaker (stronger) in the winter half year and stronger (weaker) in summer. The estimated contribution of this atmospheric circulation changes to coastal sea-level is of the order of a few centimeters at the end of the integration, being in winter negative in the Yellow Sea and positive in the China Sea with opposite signs in the summer half-year.

COASTAL SEA-LEVEL AND THE LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE STATE - A DOWNSCALING EXERCISE FOR THE JAPANESE ISLANDS

A major problem which is envisaged in the course of man-made climate change is sea-level rise. The global aspect of the thermal expansion of the sea water likely is reasonably well simulated by present day climate models; the variation of sea level, due to variations of the regional atmospheric forcing and of the large-scale oceanic circulation, is not adequately simulated by a global climate model because of insufficient spatial resolution. A method to infer the coastal aspects of sea level change is to use a statistical ''downscaling'' strategy: a linear statistical model is built upon a multi-year data set of local sea level data and of large-scale oceanic and/or atmospheric data such as sea-surface temperature or sea-level air-pressure. We apply this idea to sea level along the Japanese coast. The sea level is related to regional and North Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level air pressure. Two relevant processes are identified. One process is the local wind set-up of water due to regional low-frequency wind anomalies; the other is a planetary scale atmosphere-ocean interaction which takes place in the eastern North Pacific.