Comparison of nonlinear and linear PCA on surface wind, surface height, and SST in the South China Sea

We compared nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) with linear principal component analysis (LPCA) with the data of sea surface wind anomalies (SWA), surface height anomalies (SSHA), and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), taken in the South China Sea (SCS) between 1993 and 2003. The SCS monthly data for SWA, SSHA and SSTA (i.e., the anomalies with climatological seasonal cycle removed) were pre-filtered by LPCA, with only three leading modes retained. The first three modes of SWA, SSHA, and SSTA of LPCA explained 86%, 71%, and 94% of the total variance in the original data, respectively. Thus, the three associated time coefficient functions (TCFs) were used as the input data for NLPCA network. The NLPCA was made based on feed-forward neural network models. Compared with classical linear PCA, the first NLPCA mode could explain more variance than linear PCA for the above data. The nonlinearity of SWA and SSHA were stronger in most areas of the SCS. The first mode of the NLPCA on the SWA and SSHA accounted for 67.26% of the variance versus 54.7%, and 60.24% versus 50.43%, respectively for the first LPCA mode. Conversely, the nonlinear SSTA, localized in the northern SCS and southern continental shelf region, resulted in little improvement in the explanation of the variance for the first NLPCA.

Statistical distribution of nonlinear random wave height

A statistical model of random wave is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. A new nonlinear probability distribution function of wave height is presented. The results indicate that wave steepness not only could be a parameter of the distribution function of wave height but also could reflect the degree of wave height distribution deviation from the Rayleigh distribution. The new wave height distribution overcomes the problem of Rayleigh distribution that the prediction of big wave is overestimated and the general wave is underestimated. The prediction of small probability wave height value of new distribution is also smaller than that of Rayleigh distribution. Wave height data taken from East China Normal University are used to verify the new distribution. The results indicate that the new distribution fits the measurements much better than the Rayleigh distribution.

藏东南巨厚松散堆积体发育条件、成灾模式及防治对策——以川藏公路然乌至鲁朗段为例

The unique geologic, geomorphic and climatic conditions of southeast Tibet have made the region to develop the multi-style and frequently occurring geologic hazards, especially the collapses and landslides and debris flows along the section of Ranwu-Lulang in Sichuan-Tibet highway. However, most of those geologic hazards have close relationship with the loose accumulations. That is, the loose accumulations are the main carrier of most geologic hazards. Thereof, the huge-thick accumulations along the highway is regarded as the objective in the thesis to study the geologic background, hazarding model and mitigation methods comprehensively, based on the multi-disciplinary theories and former materials. First of all, in the paper, based on field engineering geologic investigations, the genetic type and the characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of the huge-thick loose accumulations along the highway, have been analysized from the factors of regional geology and geomorphy and climate, as well as the coupling acting of those factors with inoculation and eruption of the loose accumulations geologic hazards. The huge-thick loose accumulations has complex genetic types and specific regulations of spatiotemporal distribution, closely controlled by the outer environment of the region. The accumulations are composed of earth and boulder, with disorder structure and poor sorting, specific forming environments and depositing conditions. And its physical and mechanic properties are greatly distinguished from rock and common earth inland. When Sichuan-Tibet highway was firstly constructed along the north bank of Purlung Tsangpo River, the huge-thick loose accumulations was cut into many high and steep slopes. Through the survey to the cut-slopes and systematic investigation to their failures, the combination of height and angle of the accumulations slope has been obtained. At the same time, the types of genetic structure of those cut-slopes are also analysized and concluded, as well as their failure models. It is studied in the paper that there are piaster, duality, multielement and complexity types in genetic structure, and rip-dump-repose, rip-shear-slip and weathering-flake types in failure models. Moreover, it is briefly introduced present engineering performance methods and techniques dealing with the deformation and failure of the accumulations cut-slope. It is also suggested that several new techniques of slope enforcement and the method of landslide and rockfall avoiding should be applied. The research of high and steep cut-slope along the highway has broadened the acknowledgement of the combination of cut-slope height and angle. Especially, the dissertation also has made the monographic studies about the geologic background and hazarding models and prevention methods of some classic but difficult accumulations geologic hazards. They are: (1) Research of the engineering geologic background of the 102 landslide group and key problems about the project of tunnel. The 102 landslide group is a famous accumulational one composed of glacial tills and glaciofuvial deposit. The tunnel project is a feasible and optional one which can solve the present plight of “sliding after just harnessing” in the 102 section. Based on the glacial geomorphy and its depositing character, distribution of seepage line, a few drillhole materials and some surveying data, the position of contact surface between gneiss and accumulations has been recognized, and the retreating velocities of three different time scales (short, medium and long term) have been approximately calculated, and the weathering thickness of gneiss has also been estimated in the paper. On the basis of above acknowledgement, new engineering geomechnic mode is established. Numerical analysis about the stability of the No.2 landslide is done by way of FLAC program, which supplies the conclusion that the landslide there develops periodically. Thereof, 4 projects of tunnel going through the landslide have been put forwards. Safety distance of the tunnel from clinohefron has been numerically analysized. (2) Research of the geologic setting and disaster model and hazard mitigation of sliding-sand-slope. From the geologic setting of talus cone, it is indicated that the sliding-sand-slope is the process of the re-transportation and re-deposit of sand under the gravity action and from the talus cone. It is the failure of the talus cone essentially. The layering structure of the sliding-sand-slope is discovered. The models of movement and failure of the sliding-sand-slope has been put forwards. The technique, “abamurus+grass-bush fence+degradable culture pan”, is suggested to enforcement and green the sliding-sand-slope. (3) Characteristics and hazarding model and disaster mitigation of debris flow. The sources of solid material of three oversize debris flows have been analysized. It is found that a large amount of moraine existing in the glacial valley and large landslide dam-break are the two important features for oversize debris flow to be taken place. The disaster models of oversize and common debris flows have been generalized respectively. The former model better interpret the event of the Yigong super-large landslide-dam breaking. The features of common debris flow along the highway section, scouring and silting and burying and impacting, are formulated carefully. It is suggested that check dam is a better engineering structure to prevent valley from steeply scouring by debris flow. Moreover, the function of check dam in enforcing the slope is numerically calculated by FLAC program. (4) Songzong ancient ice-dammed lake and its slope stability. The lacustrine profile in Songzong landslide, more than 88 meters thick, is carefully described and measured. The Optical Simulated Luminescence (OSL) ages in the bottom and top of the silty clay layer are 22.5±3.3 kaB.P., 16.1±1.7 kaB.P., respectively. It is indicated by the ages that the lacustrine deposits formed during the Last Glacial Maximum ranging from 25ka B.P. to 15ka B.P. The special characteristics of the lacustrine sediment and the ancient lake line in Songzong basin indicated that the lacustrine sediment is related to the blocking of the Purlung Tsangpo River by the glacier in Last Glacial Maximum from Dongqu valley. The characteristics of the lacustrine profile also indicate that the Songzong ice-dammed lake might run through the Last Glacial Maximum. Two dimensional numerical modeling and analysis are done to simulate the slope stability under the conditions of nature and earthquake by FLAC program. The factor of safety of the lacusrtine slope is 1.04, but it will take place horizontal flow under earthquake activity due to the liquefaction of the 18.33 m silt layer. The realign to prevent the road from landslide is suggested.

东营凹陷辛镇复杂断块油藏形成机制和剩余油分布规律研究

In this paper, the complex faulted-block oil reservoir of Xinzhen area in Dongying depression is systematically studied from basic conditions forming faulted-block oil and gas reservoir integrating geology, seismic, logging and reservoir engineering information and computer; guided by petroleum geology, geomechanics, structural geology and geophysics and other theories. Based on analysis of background condition such as regional strata, structure and petroleum geology, structural research on geometry, kinemaitcs and dynamics, oil-controlling fault research on the seal features, sealing mechanism and sealing pattern, and research on enrichment rules and controlling factors of complex faulted-block oil reservoir are carried out to give out the formation mechanics of oil reservoir of Xinzhen complex faulted-block oil reservoir. As a result, the reservoir formation pattern is established. At the same time, through dissecting the characteristics and hydrocarbon enrichment law of complex faulted-block oil reservoir, and studying its distribution law of remaining oil after entering extra high water-cut period, a set of technologies are formed to predict complex faulted-block oil reservoir and its remaining oil distribution and to enhance oil recovery (EOR). Based on the time relationship between migration of hydrocarbon and trap formation, accumulating period of Xinzhen oil reservoir is determined. The formation of Xinzhen anticlinal trap was prior to the primary migration. This is favorable to formation of Xinzhen anticlinal hydrocarbon reservoir. Meanwhile, because anticline top caving isn't at the sane time as that of moving or faulted-trap forming inner anticline, oil and gas migrated many times and Xinzhen complex faulted-block oil reservoir formed from ES_3~(upper) to EG. Accumulating law and controlling factors of complex faulted-block reservoir are analyzed from many aspects such as regional structure background controlling hydrocarbon accumulating, plastic arch-open structure controlling oil-bearing series and reservoir types, sealing-opening of fault controlling hydrocarbon distribution and structure pattern controlling enriched trap types. Also, we established the structure pattern in Xinzhen a'ea: the arch-open of underlying strata cause expanding fracture. The main block groups developed here are shovel-like normal fault block group in the north area of Xinzhen and its associated graben block group. Block groups dominate the formation and distribution of reservoirs. We studied qualitatively and quantitatively the sealing characteristics, sealing history and sealing mechanism of faults, too. And, the sealing characteristics are evaluated and the distribution pattern of hydrocarbon controlled by faults is researched. Due to movement intensity of big faults, deep falling of downthrown block, high degree of repture and development of fracture, shallow layers close to the downthrown block of secondary faults are unfavorable to hydrocarbon accumulation. This is confirmed by the exploration practice in Xinzhen anticline. In terms of the downthrown blocks of sencondary contemporaneous faults lied in the south and north area of Xinzhen, hydrocarbon is poor close to fracture belt, while it is relatively abundant in tertiary companion faults. Because of long-term movement of faults that control hydrocarbon, fi'om ES3 to EG, six set of oil-bearing series formed. And their opening causes the inhomogeneity in hydrocarbon abundance among each block--in two flanks of anticline reservoirs are abundant while in the axial area, oil and gas are sporadic. There the sealing characteristics control oil-bearing area of oil/gas accumulation and the height of oil reservoir. Longitudinally, oil and gas are enriched in dip-flat areas in mid-plane of faults. It is established that there are four types of accumulating patterns in complex faulted-block oil reservoirs in Xinzhen. The first is accumulating pattern of lithologic oil reservoirs in E~S_3~(mid-lowwer), that is, self-generating-self-reserving-self-covering lithologic trap pattern. The second is drag-anticline accumulating pattern in Xinzhen. The structure traps are drag anticlines formed by the contemporaneous faults of the second basement in the north of Xinzhen, and the multiple source rocks involve Ek_2, Es_4, Es_3 and Es_1 members. The reservoirs are fluvial-delta sandstones of the upper member of Shahejie formation and Guantao formation, covered by regional thick mudstone of the upper member of Guantao formation and MingHuazhen formation. The third is the accumulating pattern of reverse listric fault, the third-degree fault of Xinzhen anticline limb and the reservoirs form reservoir screened by reverse listric faults. The forth is accumulating pattern of crossing faults which form closing or semi-closing faulted-blocks that accumulate hydrocarbon. The technologies of predicting remaining oil in complex faulted-block reservoir during the mid and late development stage is formed. Remaining oil in simple large faulted-blocks enriches in structural high, structural middle, structural low of thick bottom water reservoirs, points near bent edge-fault oftertiary faults and part the fourth ones with big falling displacement, microstructure high place of oil-sandbodies and areas where local well pattern isn't perfect. While that in small complex faulted-blocks enriches near small nose, small high point, angle of small faults, small oil-bearing faulted-blocks without well and areas with non-perfect well pattern. The technologies of enhancing recovery factor in complex faulted-block reservoir during the mid and late development stage is formed as follows: fine reservoir description, drilling adjust wells, designing directional wells, sub-dividing layer series of development, improving flooding pattern, changing water-injection direction and enhancing swept volume, cyclic waterflooding and gas-injection, etc. Here, directional wells include directional deflecting wells, lateral-drilling wells, lateral-drilling horizontal wells and horizontal wells. The results of this paper have been used in exploration and development of Shengli oilfield, and have achieved great social and economic profit, especially in predicting distribution of complex faulted-block reservoir, remaining oil distribution during middle and late stage of development, and in EOR. Applying the achievement of fault-closure research, new hydrocarbon-bearing blocks are discovered in flanks of Dongying central uplift and in complex blocks with proved reserves 15 million tons. With the study of remaining oil distribution law in complex faulted-block reservoirs, recovery factors are increased greatly in Dongxin, Xianhe and Linpan complex faulted-block reservoirs and accumulated oil production increment is 3 million tons.