Phytoplankton biomass size structure and its regulation in the Southern Yellow Sea (China): Seasonal variability

Phytoplankton size structure plays a significant role in controlling the carbon flux of marine pelagic ecosystems. The mesoscale distribution and seasonal variation of total and size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass in surface waters. as measured by chlorophyll a (Chl a), was studied in the Southern Yellow Sea using data from four cruises during 2006-2007. The distribution of Chl a showed a high degree of spatial and temporal variation in the study area. Chl a concentrations were relatively high in the summer and autumn, with a mean of 142 and 1.27 mg m(-3), respectively. Conversely, in the winter and spring. the average Chl a levels were only 098 and 0.99 mg m(-3) Total Chl a showed a clear decreasing gradient from coastal areas to the open sea in the summer, autumn and winter cruises. Patches of high Chl a were observed in the central part of the Southern Yellow Sea in the spring due to the onset of the phytoplankton bloom. The eutrophic coastal waters contributed at least 68% of the total phytoplankton biomass in the surface layer. Picophytoplankton showed a consistent and absolute dominance in the central region of the Southern Yellow Sea (>40%) in all of the cruises, while the proportion of microphytoplankton was the highest in coastal waters The relative proportions of pico- and nanophytoplankton decreased with total biomass, whereas the proportion of the micro-fraction increased with total biomass. Relationships between phytoplankton biomass and environmental factors were also analysed. The results showed that the onset of the spring bloom was highly dependent on water column stability. Phytoplankton growth was limited by nutrient availability in the summer due to the strong thermocline. The combined effects of P-limitation and vertical mixing in the autumn restrained the further increase of phytoplankton biomass in the Surface layer. The low phytoplankton biomass in winter was caused by vertical dispersion due to intense mixing. Compared with the availability of nutrients. temperature did not seem to cause direct effects on phytoplankton biomass and its size structure. Although interactions of many different environmental factors affected phytoplankton distributions. hydrodynamic conditions seemed to be the dominant factor. Phytoplankton size structure was determined mainly by the size-differential capacity in acquiring resource. Short time scale events, such as the spring bloom and the extension of Yangtze River plume, can have substantial influences, both on the total Chl a concentration and on the size structure of the phytoplankton. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nutrient Dynamics in the Upwelling Area of Changjiang (Yangtze River) Estuary

Nutrient dynamics and its influence on the distribution of chlorophyll-a in the upwelling area of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary were investigated in the spring (May) and summer (August) of 2004. In the spring, upwelling was apparent in the region of 122 degrees 20'-123 degrees 00' E, 31 degrees 00'-32 degrees 00' N and was associated with low temperature (16-21 degrees C), high salinity (24-33 practical salinity units [psu]), and low dissolved oxygen (2.5-6.0 mg L-1) in the upper 10 m of the water column. The spring upwelling increased the mixed-layer phosphate, nitrate, and silicate concentrations to roughly 1, 15, and 15 mu mol L-1, respectively, and improved the light transparency in the euphotic zone. This improvement in phytoplankton growing conditions was followed by an increase in chlorophyll-a concentrations. The summer upwelling was weaker and occurred over a smaller geographical area (122 degrees 20'-123 degrees 00' E, 31 degrees 15'-31 degrees 50' N). Strongly influenced by turbid Changjiang diluted water (CDW), it had little impact on the upper 10 m of the water column but instead increased nutrient concentrations at greater depths. The high concentration of particulates in the CDW reduced light transmission in the upper 10 m and, hence, limited phytoplankton growth throughout the water column. Chlorophyll-a concentrations in the summer upwelling area were roughly an order of magnitude lower than in the spring. Water clarity, as influenced by the CDW, appears to be the principal factor limiting the impact of upwelling on phytoplankton biomass in this area.

Autumn net copepod abundance and assemblages in relation to water masses on the continental shelf of the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Copepod species diversity, abundance and assemblages in relation to water masses over the continental shelf of the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS) were studied extensively based on the net plankton samples in autumn 2000. Multivariate analysis based on copepod assemblage resulted in recognition of five groups (Groups 1-5) corresponding to the water masses. Groups 1 and 2 delineated from inshore stations with low salinity YS Surface Water, and offshore stations with YS Cold Water in the YS. Group 3 located in the joint area of YS and ECS mainly with Mixed Water. Groups 4 and 5 in the ECS delineated two assemblages mainly from inshore and shallow stations with ECS Mixed Water in the southeastern ECS, and offshore stations along the ECS shelf edge controlled by saline Kuroshio Water. Salinity and temperature were more important in characterizing copepod assemblage of the continental shelf than chlorophyll a. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

黄骅坳陷港西开发区河流相储层构型与剩余油分布模式研究

In the production tail of oilfield, water-cut is very high in thick channel sand oil reservoir, but recovery efficiency is relative low, and recoverable remaining oil reserves is more abundant, so these reserves is potential target of additional development. The remaining oil generally distributed with accumulation in certain areas, controlled by the reservoir architecture that mainly is the lateral accretion shale beddings in the point bar, so the study of reservoir architecture and the remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by architecture are very significant. In this paper, taking the Minghuazhen formation of Gangxi oilfield as a case, using the method of hierarchy analysis, pattern fitting and multidimensional interaction, the architecture of the meandering river reservoir is precisely anatomized, and the remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by the different hierarchy architecture are summarized, which will help to guide the additional development of oil fields. Not only is the study significant to the remaining oil forecasting, but also it is important for the theory development of reservoir geology. With the knowledge of sequence correlation and fluvial correlation model, taking many factors into account, such as combination of well and seismic data, hierarchical controlling, sedimentary facies restraint, performance verification and 3-D closure, an accurate sequence frame of the study area was established. On the basis of high-resolution stratigraphic correlation, single layer and oil sand body are correlated within this frame, and four architecture hierarchies, composite channel, single channels, point bars and lateral accretion sandbody are identified, The result indicates that Minghuazhen Formation of Gangxi oilfield are dominated by meandering river deposition, including two types of channel sandbodies, narrow band and wide band channel sandbody, and each of them has different characteristics of facies variation laterally. Based on the identification of composite channel, according to the spatial combination patterns and identified signs of single channel, combined with channel sandbody distribution and tracer material data, single channel sandbodies are identified. According to empirical formula, point-bar scales of the study area are predicted, and three identification signs are summarized, that is, positive rhythm in depositional sequence, the maximum thick sand and near close to the abandoned channel, and point bars are identified. On the basis of point bar recognition, quantitative architecture models inner point bar are ascertained, taking the lateral accretion sand body and lateral accretion shale beddings in single well as foundation, and quantitative architecture models inner point bar as guidance, and result of tracer material data as controlling, the the lateral accretion sand body and lateral accretion shale beddings are forecasted interwell, so inner architecture of point bar is anatomied. 3-D structural model, 3-D facies model and 3-D petrophysical properties models are set up, spatial distribution characteristics of sedimentary facies and petrophysical properties is reappeared. On the basis of reservoir architecture analysis and performance production data, remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by different hierarchy architecture units, stacked channel, single channel and inner architecture of point bar, are summarized, which will help to guide the additional development of oil fields.

三维VSP技术的研究及应用

Today, because of high petroleum consumption of our country, society steady development and difficulty increase in new resources exploration, deep exploitation of the existing oilfield is needed. More delicate reservoir imaging and description, such as thin layer identification, interlayer exploitation monitoring, subtle structure imaging, reservoir anisotropy recognition, can provide more detail evidence for new development adjustment scheme and enhanced oil recovery. Now, the people have already realized the 3D VSP technique more effective than the general methods in solving these aspects. But VSP technique especially 3D VSP develop slowly due to some reasons. Carrying out the research of VSP technique, it will be very useful to the EOR service. 3D VSP techniques include acquisition、data processing and interpretation. In this paper, the author carried out some researches around acquisition and processing. The key point of acquisition is the survey design, it is critical to the quality of the data and it will influence the reservoir recognition as follows. The author did detailed researches on the layout pattern of shot point and geophone. Some attributes relate to survey design such as reflectivity, incidence angle, observation area, reflection points distribution, fold, minimum well source distance, azimuth angle and so on are studied seriously. In this geometry design of 3D-VSP exploration in deviated wells, the main problems to be solved are: determining the center position of shots distribution, the effect of shots missing on coverage areas and coverage times，locating the shots and receivers of multi-wells. Through simulating and analyzing, the above problems are discussed and some beneficial conclusions are drawn. These will provide valuable references to actual survey design. In data processing, researches emphasize on those relatively key techniques such as wavefield separation, VSP-CDP imaging, the author carried out deep researches around these two aspects. As a result, variant apparent slowness wavefield separation method developed in this article suit the underground variant velocity field and make wavefield separation well, it can overcome reflection bending shortage aroused by conventional imaging method. The attenuateion range of underground seismic wave is very important for amplitude compensation and oil/gas identification.In this paper, seismic wave attenuateion mechanism is studied by 3D-VSP simulateion and Q-inversion technique. By testing with seismic data, the method of VSP data attenuateion and relationship of attenuateion attribute variant with depth is researched. Also the software of survey design and data processing is developed, it fill the gap of VSP area in our country. The technique developed applied successfully in SZXX-A Oilfield、QKYY-B Oilfield、A area and B area. The good results show that this research is valuable, and it is meaningful to the VSP technique development and application of offshore oil industry and other areas in our country.

水利水电岩溶发育深度的定量化理论研究

The distribution in outcrop of carbonate rocks in China is about 3.44×106km2 and accounts for over one third of the total area of the country, mainly in the Yangtze valley and the Yungui tableland ,and there is a great plenty of Water and hydropower resources in these carbonate area. A large number of projects will be built in order to develop the Water and hydropower resources. They are facing amount of complicated problems of karsts, specially the problem of the depths of karsts below water, which is a key problem that hasn’t been solved well theoretically. So, systematically research in quantitative analysis of the problem is necessary, which is very important to solve the inconsistency between current theories and facts, and is helped to foresee the depth of karsts below water and decrease the expense of the engineering. For the problem mentioned above, the thesis makes a detailed research on the length of corrosion of karsts water, based on the kinetics of corrosion, and founds the primary theory about the processes of four typical geologic elements, which are single fracture, single conduit, porous limestone and fractured limestone. And it has done a deep research upon the characterties and kinetics of corrosion of the four typical geologic elements by simulation using the programme edited by the author. The thesis also makes a discussion on the general model and process of the form of caves by using the founded theory. According to the characteristic of Water Resource and Hydropower engineering, the thesis creates three representative flow-dissolution models for three types of common geologic conditions under the induction of the theory kinetics of corrosion of karsts water. It has done quantitative research upon the process of dissolution and brought out primary theory about quantitative analysis of the depth of karsts below water as well. It found that the depth of karsts below water relates to the specific geologic conditions and the time of dissolution by simulation based on typical parameters and deep analysis of the result. That is to say there are karsts caves in any depths in flow areas of groundwater in specific geologic conditions and appropriate time. The thesis also discourses three basic problems that frequently encountered in the reconnaissance of Water Resource and Hydropower engineering, which are karsts base level, essential conditions of karsts, the comparability of caves and terrace, and indicates the importance of time in karsts. Finally, as an application, the karsts of the scheming Qianzhong water resource engineering is analyzed by the primary theory founded of quantitative analysis. The result of the application comes to a conclusion that the theory accords with the facts properly.

东营凹陷辛镇复杂断块油藏形成机制和剩余油分布规律研究

In this paper, the complex faulted-block oil reservoir of Xinzhen area in Dongying depression is systematically studied from basic conditions forming faulted-block oil and gas reservoir integrating geology, seismic, logging and reservoir engineering information and computer; guided by petroleum geology, geomechanics, structural geology and geophysics and other theories. Based on analysis of background condition such as regional strata, structure and petroleum geology, structural research on geometry, kinemaitcs and dynamics, oil-controlling fault research on the seal features, sealing mechanism and sealing pattern, and research on enrichment rules and controlling factors of complex faulted-block oil reservoir are carried out to give out the formation mechanics of oil reservoir of Xinzhen complex faulted-block oil reservoir. As a result, the reservoir formation pattern is established. At the same time, through dissecting the characteristics and hydrocarbon enrichment law of complex faulted-block oil reservoir, and studying its distribution law of remaining oil after entering extra high water-cut period, a set of technologies are formed to predict complex faulted-block oil reservoir and its remaining oil distribution and to enhance oil recovery (EOR). Based on the time relationship between migration of hydrocarbon and trap formation, accumulating period of Xinzhen oil reservoir is determined. The formation of Xinzhen anticlinal trap was prior to the primary migration. This is favorable to formation of Xinzhen anticlinal hydrocarbon reservoir. Meanwhile, because anticline top caving isn't at the sane time as that of moving or faulted-trap forming inner anticline, oil and gas migrated many times and Xinzhen complex faulted-block oil reservoir formed from ES_3~(upper) to EG. Accumulating law and controlling factors of complex faulted-block reservoir are analyzed from many aspects such as regional structure background controlling hydrocarbon accumulating, plastic arch-open structure controlling oil-bearing series and reservoir types, sealing-opening of fault controlling hydrocarbon distribution and structure pattern controlling enriched trap types. Also, we established the structure pattern in Xinzhen a'ea: the arch-open of underlying strata cause expanding fracture. The main block groups developed here are shovel-like normal fault block group in the north area of Xinzhen and its associated graben block group. Block groups dominate the formation and distribution of reservoirs. We studied qualitatively and quantitatively the sealing characteristics, sealing history and sealing mechanism of faults, too. And, the sealing characteristics are evaluated and the distribution pattern of hydrocarbon controlled by faults is researched. Due to movement intensity of big faults, deep falling of downthrown block, high degree of repture and development of fracture, shallow layers close to the downthrown block of secondary faults are unfavorable to hydrocarbon accumulation. This is confirmed by the exploration practice in Xinzhen anticline. In terms of the downthrown blocks of sencondary contemporaneous faults lied in the south and north area of Xinzhen, hydrocarbon is poor close to fracture belt, while it is relatively abundant in tertiary companion faults. Because of long-term movement of faults that control hydrocarbon, fi'om ES3 to EG, six set of oil-bearing series formed. And their opening causes the inhomogeneity in hydrocarbon abundance among each block--in two flanks of anticline reservoirs are abundant while in the axial area, oil and gas are sporadic. There the sealing characteristics control oil-bearing area of oil/gas accumulation and the height of oil reservoir. Longitudinally, oil and gas are enriched in dip-flat areas in mid-plane of faults. It is established that there are four types of accumulating patterns in complex faulted-block oil reservoirs in Xinzhen. The first is accumulating pattern of lithologic oil reservoirs in E~S_3~(mid-lowwer), that is, self-generating-self-reserving-self-covering lithologic trap pattern. The second is drag-anticline accumulating pattern in Xinzhen. The structure traps are drag anticlines formed by the contemporaneous faults of the second basement in the north of Xinzhen, and the multiple source rocks involve Ek_2, Es_4, Es_3 and Es_1 members. The reservoirs are fluvial-delta sandstones of the upper member of Shahejie formation and Guantao formation, covered by regional thick mudstone of the upper member of Guantao formation and MingHuazhen formation. The third is the accumulating pattern of reverse listric fault, the third-degree fault of Xinzhen anticline limb and the reservoirs form reservoir screened by reverse listric faults. The forth is accumulating pattern of crossing faults which form closing or semi-closing faulted-blocks that accumulate hydrocarbon. The technologies of predicting remaining oil in complex faulted-block reservoir during the mid and late development stage is formed. Remaining oil in simple large faulted-blocks enriches in structural high, structural middle, structural low of thick bottom water reservoirs, points near bent edge-fault oftertiary faults and part the fourth ones with big falling displacement, microstructure high place of oil-sandbodies and areas where local well pattern isn't perfect. While that in small complex faulted-blocks enriches near small nose, small high point, angle of small faults, small oil-bearing faulted-blocks without well and areas with non-perfect well pattern. The technologies of enhancing recovery factor in complex faulted-block reservoir during the mid and late development stage is formed as follows: fine reservoir description, drilling adjust wells, designing directional wells, sub-dividing layer series of development, improving flooding pattern, changing water-injection direction and enhancing swept volume, cyclic waterflooding and gas-injection, etc. Here, directional wells include directional deflecting wells, lateral-drilling wells, lateral-drilling horizontal wells and horizontal wells. The results of this paper have been used in exploration and development of Shengli oilfield, and have achieved great social and economic profit, especially in predicting distribution of complex faulted-block reservoir, remaining oil distribution during middle and late stage of development, and in EOR. Applying the achievement of fault-closure research, new hydrocarbon-bearing blocks are discovered in flanks of Dongying central uplift and in complex blocks with proved reserves 15 million tons. With the study of remaining oil distribution law in complex faulted-block reservoirs, recovery factors are increased greatly in Dongxin, Xianhe and Linpan complex faulted-block reservoirs and accumulated oil production increment is 3 million tons.

松辽盆地河流-三角洲体系高分辩率层序地层学、储层构形及非均质模型研究

This dissertation tries to combine the new theories of high-resolution sequence stratigraphy and reservoir architecture with fine sedimentology to form a integral theory system -"high-resolution sequence sedimentology", which can be applied widely ranging from the early petroleum exploration to the tertiary recovery stage in marine and terrestrial basin. So the west slope area in south of Songliao basin, in which, early-fine exploration have been developed, and Xingnan area of Daqing placantictine in high water-bearing and tertiary recovery stage, are selected as target areas to research and analyze. By applying high-resolution sequence stratigraphy theory as well as analysis of source area-facies, the west slope area has been divided into two source areas and three drainage systems and the following conclusions have been drawn: three high values sandstone areas, two sandstone pinchout zones and one stratigraphic pinchout overlap; the facies between Baicheng-Tongyu drainage system is frist ascertained as large-scale argillaceous filled plain facies; fine-grained braided channel-delta depositional system has been found; plane sedimentary facies and microfacies maps of different-scale sequence have been completed, and then twenty-eight lithologic traps have been detected in the east of Taobao-Zhenlai reverse fault zone; In no exploration area of the west, large-scale stratigraiphic overlap heavy oil reservoirs has first been found, which has become an important prograss. In Xingnan area, in the view of high-resolution sequence stratigraphy, the surface of unconformity (the bottom of SSC13) in P I group has been identified, and the following method and technique have been advanced: the division and correlation methods of short-scale base-level cycle sequence (SSC); the comprehensive research methods of SSC plane microfacies; the division technique of hierarchy and type of flow unit, the origin of large-scale composite sandbody and flow unit; And ,on the basis of these, 103 monosandstone bodies and 87 flow units of the third levels have been identified, and four levels of flow units model of five sandstone-bodies types have been established. Because it is a very difficult task all over the world to research architecture in subsurface monosandstone body, brings forward a series of techniques as follows: technique of researching architecture of thin interbed in subsurface monosandstone body; classification, type and liquid-resisting mechanism of thin interbed; multiple-remember vertical subsequence model of remaining oil in monosadstone body. Models of heterogeneity and architecture of thin interbed in five types of monosandstone body have been established. Applying these techniques, type and distribution of remaining oil in different types of monosandstone bodies have been predicated.

地球化学新方法在隐状矿床找矿预测中的应用研究

With the progress of prospecting, the need for the discovery of blind ore deposits become more and more urgent. To study and find out the method and technology for the discovery of blind and buried ores is now a priority task. New geochemical methods are key technology to discover blind ores. Information of mobile components related to blind ores were extracted using this new methods. These methods were tested and applied based on element' s mobile components migrating and enriched in geophysical-geochemical process. Several kinds of partial extraction techniques have tested based on element' s occurrence in hypergenic zone. Middle-large scale geochemical methods for exploration in forest and swamp have been tested. A serious of methods were tested and applied effetely about evaluation of regional geochemical anomaly, 1:25000 bedrock or soil geochemical methods sampling based on the net in dendritic water system instead of the normal net. 1. Element related with ores can be mobiled to migrate upwards and be absorpted by surface soil. These abnomal components can be concentrated by natural or artificial methods. These trace metalic ions partially exist in dissovlvable ion forms of active state, and partially have been absorbed by Fe-Mn oxide, soil and organic matter in the soil so that a series of reaction such as complex reaction have take place. Employing various partial extraction techniques, metallic ions related with the phase of the blind ores can be extracted, such as the technique of organic complex extraction, Fe-Mn oxide extraction and the extraction technique of metallic ions of various absorption phases. 2.1:200000 regional geochemical evaluation anomaly methods: Advantageous ore-forming areas were selected firstly. Center, concentration, morphological feature, belt of anomaly were choosed then. Geological and geochemical anomalies were combined. And geological and geochemical background information were restrained. Xilekuduke area in Fuyun sheet , Zhaheba area in Qiakuerte sheet, the west-north part in Ertai sheet and Hongshanzui anomaly in Daqiao sheet were selected as target areas, in Alertai, in the north of Xinjiang. in Xilekuduke area, 1:25000 soil geochemical methods sampling based on the net in dendritic water system was carried out. Cu anomaly and copper mineralization were determined in the center area. Au , Cu anomalies and high polarization anomaly were determined in the south part. Prospecting by primary halo and organic complex extraction were used to prognosis blind ore in widely rang outcrop of bedrock. 1:25000 bedrock or soil geochemical methods sampling based on the net in dendritic water system were used in transported overburden outside of mining area. Shallow seismic method and primary halo found a new blind orebody in mining area. A mineralization site was fou and outside of Puziwan gold mine, in the north of Shanxi province. Developing middle-large scale geochemical exploration method is a key technique based 1:200000 regional geochemical exploration. Some conditions were tested as Sampling density , distribution sites of sample, grain size of sample and occurrence of element for exploration. 1:50000 exploration method was advanced to sample clast sediment supplement clast sediment in valley. 1:25000 bedrock or soil geochemical methods sampling based on the net in dendritic water system was applied to sample residual material in A or C horizon. 1:2000 primary or soil halo methods used to check anomalies and determine mineralization. Daliang gold mineralization in the northern Moerdaoga was found appling these methods. Thermomagnetic method was tested in miniqi copper-polymetallic ore. Process methods such as grain size of sample, heated temperature, magnetic separating technique were tested. A suite of Thermomagnetic geochemical method was formed. This method was applied in Xiangshan Cu~Ni deposit which is cover by clast or Gobi in the eastern Xinjiang. Element's content and contrast of anomaly with Thermomagnetic geochemical method were higher than soil anomaly. Susceptibility after samples were heated could be as a assessment conference for anomaly. In some sectors thermo-magnetic Cu, Ni, Ti anomalious were found outside deposits area. There were strong anomal ies response up ore tested by several kind of partial extraction methods include Thermomagnetic, enzyme leach and other partial extractions in Kalatongke Cu-Ni deposit in hungriness area in the northern of Xinjiang. Element's anomalies of meobile were mainly in Fe-Mn oxide and salt. A Copper mineralization site in Xilekuduke anomaly area had been determined. A blind ore was foung by shallow seismic and geochemical method and a mineralization site was found outside this mining area in Puziwan gold deposit in shanxi province. A Gold mineralization site was found by 1:50000 geochemical exploration in Daliang, Inner Mongolia.

三峡库区滑坡的时空分布、成因及其预报模式

Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.

中国粮食生产的区域演进研究

Grain is one of the primary material conditions of the human survival and the grain production concerns the stability and development of the society directly. The regional patterns influence greatly on the grain production and the rational production distribution the regional comparative advantages and promotes grain production. This thesis starts with summarizing of the characteristics of changes and the overall trend of regional pattern of grain production of our country since 1949. Then it carries on network analyses to the factors, which influences the evolvement of regional grain production patterns of our country. And finally it gives some proposals to the grain production distribution in the future. The main content includes: Firstly, Reviewing the regional evolvement of grain production in our country, and analyzing the changes of the regional pattern of grain production of our country on the provincial scale and county scale separately, since 1949, especially since the reform and opening up policy. The main grain production areas are acting an important position in ensuring the national grain security, so this thesis analyses the main matter of the main grain production areas, forecasts the grain production situation in the future, and selects the Northeastern main grain production areas as the typical area to carry on the positive research. Secondly, this thesis analyzes the origin causes from two respects of natural and social economy of the regional evolvement pattern of grain production in China. Thirdly, based on the summarizing to the status of the regional pattern of the grain production, this thesis proposes the precept of the grain production distribution in the future in our country. Therefore, the areas of three major cereal crops, rice, wheat and corn, are confirmed on the basis of the comparative advantages. Finally, this thesis puts forward the security system of guaranteeing the grain production progressing steady in China. According to the above analysis, some conclusions have been achieved as follows: (1) The grain gross production gets on extricating itself from awkward position frequently while fluctuating greatly annually since 1949 in China. (2) Since the reform, its traditional regional pattern of grain production, the most of which was concentrated in the south area, has changed rapidly. China's center of gravity of grain production has shifted from the south to the north, and on the belts of latitude, the grain production has represented a trend of focusing to the middle area in China. (3) The main grain production areas play a very important role in ensuring China's food security. With their relative severe situation of the problems of agriculture, rural area and peasant, China has carried out a series of measures, which aim at improving the food-producing conditions of the main grain production areas, and enhancing the grain yields there. Under this condition, a forecast of the producing amount of the main grain production areas under the nation's self-supplying rate of over 95% shows that the increasing provision production in these areas can meet the demand of the country. (4) The natural and social economic factors influence together on the changes of the grain production regional pattern. Along with the state system transition and progress of agricultural science and technology, the regional pattern of grain production is affected heavier by the agricultural policy and technological elements. (5) The grain production will be concentrated to the middle province in the future, which economic development level being medium-sized; According to crop allocation, although the rice superiority production area located in the South, its comparative advantage index is little in some degree. Meanwhile, the wheat and corn superiority production areas are in the North mainly and its scale superiority and production level advantage are all comparatively obviously.