Modeling All-sky Global Solar Radiation Using MODIS Atmospheric Products: A Case Study in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The surface solar radiation (SSR) is of great importance to bio-chemical cycle and life activities. However, it is impossible to observe SSR directly over large areas especially for rugged surfaces such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This paper presented an improved parameterized model for predicting all-sky global solar radiation on rugged surfaces using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric products and Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The global solar radiation was validated using 11 observations within the plateau. The correlation coefficients of daily data vary between 0.67-0.86, while those of the averages of 10-day data are between 0.79-0.97. The model indicates that the attenuation of SSR is mainly caused by cloud under cloudy sky, and terrain is an important factor influencing SSR over rugged surfaces under clear sky. A positive relationship can also be inferred between the SSR and slope. Compared with horizontal surfaces, the south-facing slope receives more radiation, followed by the west- and east-facing slopes with less SSR, and the SSR of the north-facing slope is the least.

Model analysis of dissolved inorganic phosphorus exports from the Yangtze river to the estuary

In this paper, we estimate the inputs of phosphorus (P) to the Yangtze River Basin and exports of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) from the river to the estuary for the period 1970-2003, by using the global NEWS-DIP model. Modeled DIP yields range from 2.5 kg P km(-2) yr(-1) in 1970 to 4.6 kg P km(-2) yr(-1) in 1985, and then dramatically increase to 14.1 kg P km(-2) yr(-1) in 2003. No significant difference between the modeled and measured values at the level of P = 0.05 is observed. The study also demonstrates variable source contributions of P to the modeled DIP during the period 1970-2003. Point sewage P input accounted for approximately 100% in the period 1970-1985 and substantially decreased to 24.8% in 2003. Chemical fertilizer contributed 25.4% of DIP yields in 1986 and increased continuously to 50.3% in 2003, while a stable trend in manure P contribution averaging 22.9% of DIP yields was shown in the same period. The study concludes that P inputs to the Yangtze River Basin and the river DIP export to the estuary have substantially increased during the study period consequence to human pressure.

Mean sea surface heights of the South and East China Seas from ocean circulation model and geodetic leveling

The mean sea surface heights (sea surface topography) of the South China, East China, Yellow and Bohai Seas are derived from an ocean general circulation model and surface air pressure. The circulation model covers the global oceans, with fine grid (1/6degrees) covering the East Asian marginal seas and coarse grid (31) covering the rest part of the global oceans. The result shows that the China 1985 National Altitude Datum is 24.7 cm above the me-an sea surface height of the world oceans. The mean sea surface in the coastal ocean adjacent to China is higher in the south than in the north. Intercomparison of the model results with the geodetic leveling measurements at 28 coastal tidal stations shows a standard deviation of 4.8 cm and a fitting coefficient of 95.3%. After correction through linear regression, the standard deviation is reduced to 4.5 cm. This indicates that the accuracy of model results is sufficient for practical application. Based on the model results, the mean sea surface heights for the study area with a resolution of 1/6 degree are given. This result also links the mean sea levels at islands with those on the mainland coast and gives the mean sea surface heights at tidal stations in the Taiwan Island, the Dongsha Islands, the Yisha Islands and the Nansha Islands relative to the China 1985 National Altitude Datum.

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model and ENSO prediction study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

Cellular automata: Simulating alpine tundra vegetation dynamics in response to global warming

This study attempts to model alpine tundra vegetation dynamics in a tundra region in the Qinghai Province of China in response to global warming. We used Raster-based cellular automata and a Geographic Information System to study the spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. The cellular automata model is implemented with IDRISI's Multi-Criteria Evaluation functionality to simulate the spatial patterns of vegetation change assuming certain scenarios of global mean temperature increase over time. The Vegetation Dynamic Simulation Model calculates a probability surface for each vegetation type, and then combines all vegetation types into a composite map, determined by the maximum likelihood that each vegetation type should distribute to each raster unit. With scenarios of global temperature increase of I to 3 degrees C, the vegetation types such as Dry Kobresia Meadow and Dry Potentilla Shrub that are adapted to warm and dry conditions tend to become more dominant in the study area.

A stable carbon isotopic approach for understanding the CO2 flux at the Haibei Alpine Meadow Ecosystem - A simple model

Although respiration of organisms and biomass as well as fossil fuel burning industrial production are identified as the major sources, the CO2 flux is still unclear due to the lack of proper measurements. A mass-balance approach that exploits differences in the carbon isotopic signature (delta(13)C) of CO2 Sources and sinks was introduced and may provide a means of reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric budget. delta(13)C measurements of atmospheric CO2 yielded an average of - 10.3 parts per thousand relative to the Peedee Belemnite standard; soil and plants had a narrow range from -25.09 parts per thousand to -26.51 parts per thousand and averaged at -25.80 parts per thousand. Based on the fact of steady fractionation and enrichment during respiration of mitochondria, we obtained the emission Of CO2 of 35.451 mol m(-2) a(-1) and CO2 flux of 0.2149 mu mol m(-2) s(-)1. The positive CO2 flux indicated the Haibei Alpine Meadow Ecosystem a source rather than a sink. The mass-balance model can be applied for other ecosystem even global carbon cycles because it neglects the complicated process of carbon metabolism, however just focuses on stable carbon isotopic compositions in any of compartments of carbon sources and sinks. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.