beta-delayed proton decays and spin assignments for Tb-140, Dy-141 and Dy-143

The proton-rich isotopes Tb-140 and Dy-141 were produced via the fusion evaporation reaction Ca-40+ Cd-106. Their beta-delayed proton decays were studied by p-gamma coincidence in combination with a He-jet tape transport system, and half-lives, proton energy spectra, gamma-transitions following the proton emission, as well as beta-delayed proton branching ratios to the low-lying states in the grand-daughter nuclei were determined. Comparing the experimental data with statistical model calculations, the ground-state spins of Tb-140 and Dy-141 were found to be consistent with 7 and 9/2, respectively. The configuration-constrained nuclear potential energy surfaces (NPES) of Tb-140 and Dy-141 were calculated using the Woods-Saxon-Strutinsky method, which suggest the ground-state spins and parities of Tb-140 and Dy-141 to be 7(+) and 9/2(-), respectively. In addition, the configuration-constrained NPES of Dy-143 were calculated, which predict a 1/2(+) ground state and a 11/2(-) isomer with excitation energy of 198 keV. These findings are consistent with our previous experimental data on Dy-143 reported in Eur. Phys. J. A 16, 347 (2003).

Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961-2005

National Key Technology RD Program [2006BAD03A02]

Stress transfer and damage evolution simulations of fiber-reinforced polymer-matrix composites

The stress transfer from broken fibers to unbroken fibers in fiber-reinforced thermosetting polymer-matrix composites and thermoplastic polymer-matrix composites was studied using a detailed finite element model. In order to check the validity of this approach, an epoxy-matrix monolayer composite was used as thermosetting polymer-matrix composite and a polypropylene (PP)-matrix monolayer composite was used as thermoplastic polymer-matrix composite, respectively. It is found that the stress concentrations near the broken fiber element cause damage to the neighboring epoxy matrix prior to the breakage of other fibers, whereas in the case of PP-matrix composites the fibers nearest to the broken fiber break prior to the PP matrix damage, because the PP matrix around the broken fiber element yields. In order to simulate composite damage evolution, a Monte Carlo technique based on a finite element method has been developed in the paper. The finite element code coupled with statistical model of fiber strength specifically written for this problem was used to determine the stress redistribution. Five hundred samples of numerical simulation were carried out to obtain statistical deformation and failure process of composites with fixed fiber volume fraction.

Reconstruction of vertical thermal structure from several subsurface temperatures in the China Seas and adjacent waters

Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is used in this study to generate main eigenvector fields of historical temperature for the China Seas (here referring to Chinese marine territories) and adjacent waters from 1930 to 2002 (510 143 profiles). A good temperature profile is reconstructed based on several subsurface in situ temperature observations and the thermocline was estimated using the model. The results show that: 1) For the study area, the former four principal components can explain 95% of the overall variance, and the vertical distribution of temperature is most stable using the in situ temperature observations near the surface. 2) The model verifications based on the observed CTD data from the East China Sea (ECS), South China Sea (SCS) and the areas around Taiwan Island show that the reconstructed profiles have high correlation with the observed ones with the confidence level > 95%, especially to describe the characteristics of the thermocline well. The average errors between the reconstructed and observed profiles in these three areas are 0.69A degrees C, 0.52A degrees C and 1.18A degrees C respectively. It also shows the model RMS error is less than or close to the climatological error. The statistical model can be used to well estimate the temperature profile vertical structure. 3) Comparing the thermocline characteristics between the reconstructed and observed profiles, the results in the ECS show that the average absolute errors are 1.5m, 1.4 m and 0.17A degrees C/m, and the average relative errors are 24.7%, 8.9% and 22.6% for the upper, lower thermocline boundaries and the gradient, respectively. Although the relative errors are obvious, the absolute error is small. In the SCS, the average absolute errors are 4.1 m, 27.7 m and 0.007A degrees C/m, and the average relative errors are 16.1%, 16.8% and 9.5% for the upper, lower thermocline boundaries and the gradient, respectively. The average relative errors are all < 20%. Although the average absolute error of the lower thermocline boundary is considerable, but contrast to the spatial scale of average depth of the lower thermocline boundary (165 m), the average relative error is small (16.8%). Therefore the model can be used to well estimate the thermocline.

Distribution of the nonlinear random ocean wave period

Because of the intrinsic difficulty in determining distributions for wave periods, previous studies on wave period distribution models have not taken nonlinearity into account and have not performed well in terms of describing and statistically analyzing the probability density distribution of ocean waves. In this study, a statistical model of random waves is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. In addition, a new nonlinear probability distribution function for the wave period is presented with the parameters of spectral density width and nonlinear wave steepness, which is more reasonable as a physical mechanism. The magnitude of wave steepness determines the intensity of the nonlinear effect, while the spectral width only changes the energy distribution. The wave steepness is found to be an important parameter in terms of not only dynamics but also statistics. The value of wave steepness reflects the degree that the wave period distribution skews from the Cauchy distribution, and it also describes the variation in the distribution function, which resembles that of the wave surface elevation distribution and wave height distribution. We found that the distribution curves skew leftward and upward as the wave steepness increases. The wave period observations for the SZFII-1 buoy, made off the coast of Weihai (37A degrees 27.6' N, 122A degrees 15.1' E), China, are used to verify the new distribution. The coefficient of the correlation between the new distribution and the buoy data at different spectral widths (nu=0.3-0.5) is within the range of 0.968 6 to 0.991 7. In addition, the Longuet-Higgins (1975) and Sun (1988) distributions and the new distribution presented in this work are compared. The validations and comparisons indicate that the new nonlinear probability density distribution fits the buoy measurements better than the Longuet-Higgins and Sun distributions do. We believe that adoption of the new wave period distribution would improve traditional statistical wave theory.

COASTAL SEA-LEVEL AND THE LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE STATE - A DOWNSCALING EXERCISE FOR THE JAPANESE ISLANDS

A major problem which is envisaged in the course of man-made climate change is sea-level rise. The global aspect of the thermal expansion of the sea water likely is reasonably well simulated by present day climate models; the variation of sea level, due to variations of the regional atmospheric forcing and of the large-scale oceanic circulation, is not adequately simulated by a global climate model because of insufficient spatial resolution. A method to infer the coastal aspects of sea level change is to use a statistical ''downscaling'' strategy: a linear statistical model is built upon a multi-year data set of local sea level data and of large-scale oceanic and/or atmospheric data such as sea-surface temperature or sea-level air-pressure. We apply this idea to sea level along the Japanese coast. The sea level is related to regional and North Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level air pressure. Two relevant processes are identified. One process is the local wind set-up of water due to regional low-frequency wind anomalies; the other is a planetary scale atmosphere-ocean interaction which takes place in the eastern North Pacific.

中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

基于改进的OFA-MPCA的监控方法

多向主元分析(MPCA)是利用多变量统计方法从纷杂的海量数据信息中提取出能够准确表征数据信息的几个主元,并通过投影法来降低数据的维数,主要应用于间歇生产过程中.在实际的间歇生产过程中,由于各种原因导致各批次异步造成它们运行时间的不一致,而无法直接建立有效的统计模型,正交函数近似(OFA)是一种基于正交基的投影变换技术,通过对原始数据进行OFA处理后,可以用投影系数来描述原始数据所具有的特征,并且可以达到轨迹同步化和压缩数据量的目的.对OFA法进行了部分改进,并结合MPCA法对典型的间歇过程——青霉素发酵过程进行了仿真研究.结果表明,改进的OFA计算速度有了极大的提高,且改进的OFA-MPCA法能完好地对各批次进行同步、建模并得出准确的监视结果.

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Statistical thermodynamics of polydisperse polymer systems in the framework of lattice fluid model: Effect of molecular weight and its distribution on the spinodal in polymer solution

With the aid of thermodynamics of Gibbs, the expression of the spinodal was derived for the polydisperse polymer-solvent system in the framework of Sanchez-Lacombe Lattice Fluid Theory (SLLFT). For convenience, we considered that a model polydisperse polymer contains three sub-components. According to our calculation, the spinodal depends on both weight-average ((M) over bar (w)) and number-average ((M) over bar (n)) molecular weights of the polydisperse polymer, but the z-average molecular weight ((M) over bar (z)) dependence on the spinodal is invisible. The dependence of free volume on composition, temperature, molecular weight, and its distribution results in the effect of (M) over bar (n) on the spinodal. Moreover, it has been found that the effect of changing (M) over bar (w) on the spinodal is much bigger than that of changing (M) over bar (n) and the extrema of the spinodal increases with the rise of the weight-average molecular weight of the polymer in the solutions with upper critical solution temperature (UCST). However, the effect of polydispersity on the spinodal can be neglected for the polymer with a considerably high weight-average molecular weight. A more simple expression of the spinodal for the polydisperse polymer solution in the framework of SLLFT was also derived under the assumption of upsilon(*)=upsilon(1)(*)=upsilon(2)(*) and (1/r(1)(0))-(1/r(2i)(0))-->(1/r(1)(0)).

STATISTICAL THERMODYNAMICS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE LATTICE FLUID MODEL .1. POLYDISPERSE POLYMERS OF SPECIAL DISTRIBUTION

The Gibbs free energies and equations of state of polymers with special molar mass distributions, e.g., Flory distribution, uniform distribution and Schulz distribution, are derived based on a lattice fluid model. The influence of the polydispersity (or t

STATISTICAL THERMODYNAMICS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE LATTICE FLUID MODEL .2. BINARY MIXTURE OF POLYDISPERSE POLYMERS OF SPECIAL DISTRIBUTION

In this paper, the Gibbs free energy, the equation of state and the chemical potentials of polydisperse multicomponent polymer mixtures are derived. For general binary mixtures of polydisperse polymers, we also give the Gibbs free energy, the equation of

STATISTICAL THERMODYNAMICS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE LATTICE FLUID MODEL .3. BINARY MIXTURE OF POLYDISPERSE POLYMERS OF SPECIAL DISTRIBUTION WITH STRONG-INTERACTIONS

For a binary mixture of polydisperse polymers with strong interactions, the free energy, the equation of state, the chemical potentials and the spinodal are formulated on the basis of the lattice fluid model. Further, the spinodal curves for the system wi

The development of an inhomogeneous damage field in an elastic-plastic model

By making use of the evolution equation of the damage field as derived from the statistical mesoscopic damage theory, we have preliminarily examined the inhomogeneous damage field in an elastic-plastic model under constant-velocity tension. Three types of deformation and damage field evolution are presented. The influence of the plastic matrix is examined. It seems that matrix plasticity may defer the failure due to damage evolution. A criterion for damage localization is consistent with the numerical results.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.