地理信息系统支持下的滑坡灾害空间分析预测-以云南小江流域为例

As a typical geological and environmental hazard, landslide has been causing more and more property and life losses. However, to predict its accurate occurring time is very difficult or even impossible due to landslide's complex nature. It has been realized that it is not a good solution to spend a lot of money to treat with and prevent landslide. The research trend is to study landslide's spatial distribution and predict its potential hazard zone under certain region and certain conditions. GIS(Geographical Information System) is a power tools for data management, spatial analysis based on reasonable spatial models and visualization. It is new and potential study field to do landslide hazard analysis and prediction based on GIS. This paper systematically studies the theory and methods for GIS based landslide hazard analysis. On the basis of project "Mountainous hazard study-landslide and debris flows" supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences and the former study foundation, this paper carries out model research, application, verification and model result analysis. The occurrence of landslide has its triggering factors. Landslide has its special landform and topographical feature which can be identify from field work and remote sensing image (aerial photo). Historical record of landslide is the key to predict the future behaviors of landslide. These are bases for landslide spatial data base construction. Based on the plenty of literatures reviews, the concept framework of model integration and unit combinations is formed. Two types of model, CF multiple regression model and landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model are bought forward. CF multiple regression model comes form statistics and possibility theory based on data. Data itself contains the uncertainty and random nature of landslide hazard, so it can be seen as a good method to study and understand landslide's complex feature and mechanics. CF multiple regression model integrates CF (landslide Certainty Factor) and multiple regression prediction model. CF can easily treat with the problems of data quantifying and combination of heteroecious data types. The combination of CF can assist to determine key landslide triggering factors which are then inputted into multiple regression model. CF regression model can provide better prediction results than traditional model. The process of landslide can be described and modeled by suitable physical and mechanical model. Landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model is such a physical deterministic model that can be easily used for landslide hazard analysis and prediction. It couples the general limit equilibrium method and hydrological distribution model based on DEM, and can be used as a effective approach to predict the occurrence of landslide under different precipitation conditions as well as landslide mechanics research. It can not only explain pre-existed landslides, but also predict the potential hazard region with environmental conditions changes. Finally, this paper carries out landslide hazard analysis and prediction in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed, including landslide hazard sensitivity analysis and regression prediction model based on selected key factors, determining the relationship between landslide occurrence possibility and triggering factors. The result of landslide hazard analysis and prediction by coupled model is discussed in details. On the basis of model verification and validation, the modeling results are showing high accuracy and good applying potential in landslide research.

孤南-三合村洼陷含油气系统研究

The development petroleum geology has made people from studying and studying and predicting in statically and respectively the pool-forming conditions of an area such as oil source bed, reservoir, overlying formation, migration, trap and preservation, etc. to regarding these conditions as well as roles of generation, reservation and accumulation as an integrated dynamic evolution development system to do study .Meanwhile apply various simulating means to try to predict from quantitative angle. Undoubtedly, the solution of these questions will accumulate exploration process, cut down exploration cost and obtain remarkable economic and social benefits. This paper which take sedimentology ,structural geology and petroleum geology as guides and take petroleum system theory as nucleus and carry out study thinking of beginning with static factor and integration of point and face as well as regarding dynamic state factor as factor and apply study methods of integration of geology, Lab research and numerical modeling proceed integrated dissect and systematic analysis to GuNan-SanHeCun depression. Also apply methods of integration of sequence stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, petrostratigraphy and seismic data to found the time-contour stratigraphic framework and reveal time-space distribution of depositional system and meantime clarify oil-source bed, reservoir and overlying distribution regular patterns. Also use basin analysis means to study precisely the depositional history, packed sequences and evolution. Meanwhile analyze systematically and totally the fracture sequence and fault quality and fault feature, study the structural form, activity JiCi and time-space juxtaposion as well as roles of fault in migration and accumulation of oil and gas of different rank and different quality fault. Simultaneously, utilize seismic, log, analysis testing data and reservoir geology theory to do systematic study and prediction to GuNan-SanHeCun reservoir, study the reservoir types macroscopic distribution and major controlling factors, reservoir rock, filler and porosity structural features as well as distribution of reservoir physical property in 3D space and do comprehensive study and prediction to major controlling and influential factors of reservoir. Furthermore, develop deepingly organic geochemistry comprehensive study, emphasis on two overlaps of oil source rock (ESI, ES3) organic geochemistry features, including types, maturity and spatial variations of organic matter to predict their source potential .Also apply biological marks to proceed oil-to-source correlation ,thereby establish bases for distribution of petroleum system. This study recover the oil generation history of oil source rocks, evaluate source and hydrocarbon discharge potential ,infer pool-forming stages and point out the accumulation direction as well as discover the forming relations of mature oil-source rock and oil reservoir and develop research to study dynamic features of petroleum system. Meanwhile use systematic view, integrate every feature and role of pool forming and the evolution history and pool-forming history, thereby lead people from static conditions such as oil source bed, reservoir, overlying formation, migration, trap and preservation to dynamically analyzing pool-forming process. Also divide GuNan-SanHeCun depression into two second petroleum system, firstly propose to divide second petroleum system according to fluid tress, structural axis and larger faults of cutting depression, and divide lower part of petroleum system into five secondary systems. Meanwhile establish layer analysis and quantitative prediction model of petroleum model, and do quantitative prediction to secondary petroleum system.

港西地区河流相砂岩油藏剩余油分布研究

The Gangxi oil field has reached a stage of high water production. The reservoir parameters, such as reservoir physical characteristics, pore structure, fluid, have obviously changed. This thesis therefore carries out a study of these parameters that control reservoir characteristics, physical and chemical actions that have taken place within the reservoirs due to fluid injection, subsequent variations of reservoir macroscopic physical features, microscopic pore structures, seepages, and formation fluid properties. This study rebuilds a geologic model for this oil field, establishes a log-interpreting model, proposes a methodology for dealing with large pore channels and remnant oil distribution, and offers a basis for effective excavation of potential oil, recovery planning, and improvement of water-injection techniques. To resolve some concurrent key problems in the process of exploration of the Gangxi area, this thesis carries out a multidisciplinary research into reservoir geology, physical geography, reservoir engineering, and oil-water well testing. Taking sandstone and flow unit as objects, this study establishes a fine geologic model by a quantificational or semi-quantificational approach in order to understand the remnant oil distribution and the reservoir potential, and accordingly proposes a plan for further exploration. By rebuilding a geological model and applying reservoir-engineering methods, such as numerical simulation, this thesis studies the oil-water movement patterns and remnant-oil distribution, and further advances a deployment plan for the necessary adjustments and increase of recoverable reserves. Main achievements of this study are as follows: 1. The Minghazhen Formation in the Gangxi area is featured by medium-sinuosity river deposits, manifesting themselves as a transitional type between typical meandering and braided rivers. The main microfacies are products of main and branch channels, levee, inter-channel overflows and crevasse-splay floodplains. The Guantao Group is dominantly braided river deposit, and microfacies are mainly formed in channel bar, braided channel and overbank. Main lithofacies include conglomerate, sandstone, siltstone and shale, with sandstone facies being the principal type of the reservoir. 2. The reservoir flow unit of the Gangxi area can be divided into three types: Type I is a high-quality heterogeneous seepage unit, mainly distributed in main channel; Type II is a moderate-quality semi-heterogeneous seepage unit, mainly distributed in both main and branch channels, and partly seen within inter-channel overflow microfacies; Type III is a low-quality, relatively strong heterogeneous seepage unit, mainly distributed in inter-channel overflow microfacies and channel flanks. 3. Flow units and sedimentary microfacies have exerted relatively strong controls on the flowing of underground oil-water: (1) injection-production is often effective in the float units of Type I and II, whilst in the same group of injection-production wells, impellent velocity depends on flow unit types and injection-production spacing; (2) The injection-production of Type III flow unit between the injection-production wells of Type I and II flow units, however, are little effective; (3) there can form a seepage shield in composite channels between channels, leading to inefficient injection and production. 4. Mainly types of large-scale remnant-oil distribution are as follows: (1) remnant oil reservoir of Type III flow unit; (2) injection-production well group of remnant oil area of Type III flow unit; (3) remnant oil reservoirs that cannot be controlled by well network, including reservoir featured by injection without production, reservoir characterized by production without injection, and oil reservoir at which no well can arrive; (4) remnant oil area where injection-production system is not complete. 5. Utilizing different methods to deal with different sedimentary types, sub-dividing the columns of up to 900 wells into 76 chronostratigraphic units. Four transitional sandstone types are recognized, and contrast modes of different sandstone facies are summarized Analyzing in details the reservoirs of different quality by deciphering densely spaced well patterns, dividing microscopic facies and flow units, analyzing remnant oil distribution and its effect on injection-production pattern, and the heterogeneity. Theory foundation is therefore provided for further excavation of remnant oil. Re-evaluating well-log data. The understanding of water-flood layers and conductive formations in the Gangxi area have been considerably improved, and the original interpretations of 233 wells have changed by means of double checking. Variations of the reservoirs and the fluid and formation pressures after water injection are analyzed and summarized Studies are carried out of close elements of the reservoirs, fine reservoir types, oil-water distribution patterns, as well as factors controlling oil-gas enrichment. A static geological model and a prediction model of important tracts are established. Remaining recoverable reserves are calculated of all the oil wells and oil-sandstones. It is proposed that injection-production patterns of 348 oil-sandstones should be adjusted according to the analysis of adaptability of all kinds of sandstones in the injection-production wells.

文33块沙二下段油藏动态模型及剩余油预测

By applying synthetically multi-subject theories, methods and technology, such as petroleum geology, sedimentology, seep mechanics, geochemistry, geophysics and so on; and by making full use of computer; combining quantity and quality, macroscopic and microscopic, intensive static and active description, comprehensive studying and physical modeling, 3 dimension and 4 dimension description; the paper took Wen-33 block of Zhongyuan oil field as an example; and studied reservoir macroscopic and microscopic parameter changing rule and evolve mechanics in different water-blood stage. The reservoir dynamic model and remaining-oil distribution mode was established, and several results were achieved as follows: (1) Three types of parameter gaining, optimizing and whole data body of Wen33th reservoir were established. Strata framework, structure framework, reservoir types and distribution of Wen33th reservoir were discussed. Reservoir genesis types, space distribution law and evolve rule of Wen33th reservoir were explained. 4D dynamic model of macroscopic parameter of reservoir flow dynamic geologic function of Wen33th reservoir was established. The macroscopic remaining-oil distribution and control factor was revealed. The models of the microscopic matrix field, pore-throat network field, fluid field, clay mineral field of Wen-33 block were established. The characters, changing rules and controlled factors in different water stage were revealed. The evolve rule and mechanics of petroleum fluid field in Wen-33 block reservoir were revealed. Macroscopic and microscopic remaining oil distribution mode of Wen-33 block were established. Seven types, namely 12 shapes of dynamic model of microscopic remaining oil were discussed, and the distribution of mover remaining oil was predicted. Emulation model: mathematical model and prediction model of Wen-33 block were established. The changing mechanics of reservoir parameter and distribution of remaining-oil were predicted. Firstly, the paper putting forward that the dynamic geologic function of petroleum development is the factor of controlling remaining-oil, which is the main factor leading to matrix field, network field, clay mineral field, fluid field, physic and chemical field, stress field and fluid field forming and evolving. (10) A set of theories, methods and technologies of investigating, describing, characterizing and predicting complex fault-block petroleum were developed.

三峡库区滑坡的时空分布、成因及其预报模式

Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.

An Accurate and Fast Behavioral Model for PLL Frequency Synthesizer Phase Noise/Spurs Prediction

This paper presents a behavior model for PLL Frequency Synthesizer. All the noise sources are modeled with noise voltages or currents in time-domain. An accurate VCO noise model is introduced, including both thermal noise and 1/f noise. The behavioral model can be co-simulated with transistor level circuits with fast speed and provides more accurate phase noise and spurs prediction. Comparison shows that simulation results match very well with measurement results.

PREDICTION OF VORTEX-INDUCED VIBRATION OF FLEXIBLE RISER USING AN IMPROVED WAKE-OSCILLATOR MODEL

Based on improving the wake-oscillator model, an analytical model for vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of flexible riser under non-uniform current is presented, in which the variation of added mass at lock-in and the nonlinear relationship between amplitude of response and reduced velocity are considered. By means of empirical formula combining iteration computation, the improved analytical model can be conveniently programmed into computer code with simpler and faster computation process than CFD so as to be suitable to application of practical engineering. This model is validated by comparing with experimental result and numerical simulation. Our results show that the improved model can predict VIV response and lock-in region more accurately. At last, illustrative examples are given in which the amplitude of response of flexible riser experiencing VIV under action of non-uniform current is calculated and effects of riser tension and flow distribution along span of riser are explored. It is demonstrated that with the variation of tension and flow distribution, lock-in region of mode behaves in different way, and thus the final response is a synthesis of response of locked modes.

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model and ENSO prediction study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

A Thermodynamic Constitutive Model for Stress Induced Phase Transformation in Shape Memory Alloys

In this paper a thermodynamic constitutive model is developed for stress induced phase transformation in single crystalline and polycrystalline shape memory alloys (SMAs). Volume fractions of different martensite variants are chosen as internal variables to describe the evolution of microstructure state in the material. This model is then used in prediction the transformation behavior of a SMA (Cu-Al-Zn-Mn) under complex thermomechanical load (including complete and incomplete transformation in mechanical cycling, and proportional/non-proportional loading). (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic model for fatigue crack propagation analysis

A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is presented. In the model, the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables, and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshore structural steel under constant amplitude loading. Furthermore, by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted. The tests are conducted to verify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.

Fractal geometry model for effective thermal conductivity of three-phase porous media

An approximate model, a fractal geometry model, for the effective thermal conductivity of three-phase/unsaturated porous media is proposed based on the thermal-electrical analogy technique and on statistical self-similarity of porous media. The proposed thermal conductivity model is expressed as a function of porosity (related to stage n of Sierpinski carpet), ratio of areas, ratio of component thermal conductivities, and saturation. The recursive algorithm for the thermal conductivity by the proposed model is presented and found to be quite simple. The model predictions are compared with the existing measurements. Good agreement is found between the present model predictions and the existing experimental data. This verifies the validity of the proposed model. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Energy principle of ferroelectric ceramics and single domain mechanical model

Many physical experiments have shown that the domain switching in a ferroelectric material is a complicated evolution process of the domain wall with the variation of stress and electric field. According to this mechanism, the volume fraction of the domain switching is introduced in the constitutive law of ferroelectric ceramic and used to study the nonlinear constitutive behavior of ferroelectric body in this paper. The principle of stationary total energy is put forward in which the basic unknown quantities are the displacement u (i) , electric displacement D (i) and volume fraction rho (I) of the domain switching for the variant I. Mechanical field equation and a new domain switching criterion are obtained from the principle of stationary total energy. The domain switching criterion proposed in this paper is an expansion and development of the energy criterion. On the basis of the domain switching criterion, a set of linear algebraic equations for the volume fraction rho (I) of domain switching is obtained, in which the coefficients of the linear algebraic equations only contain the unknown strain and electric fields. Then a single domain mechanical model is proposed in this paper. The poled ferroelectric specimen is considered as a transversely isotropic single domain. By using the partial experimental results, the hardening relation between the driving force of domain switching and the volume fraction of domain switching can be calibrated. Then the electromechanical response can be calculated on the basis of the calibrated hardening relation. The results involve the electric butterfly shaped curves of axial strain versus axial electric field, the hysteresis loops of electric displacement versus electric filed and the evolution process of the domain switching in the ferroelectric specimens under uniaxial coupled stress and electric field loading. The present theoretic prediction agrees reasonably with the experimental results given by Lynch.