Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Experimental Evidence of Critical Sensitivity in Catastrophe

The paper presents an experimental study on critical sensitivity in rocks. Critical sensitivity means that the response of a system to external controlling variable may become significantly sensitive as the system approaches its catastrophic rupture point. It is found that the sensitivities measured by responses on three scales (sample scale, locally macroscopic scales and mesoscopic scale) display increase prior to catastrophic transition point. These experimental results do support the concept that critical sensitivity might be a common precursory feature of catastrophe. Furthermore, our previous theoretical model is extended to explore the fluctuations in critical sensitivity in the rock tests.

Acoustic Emission Experiments of Rock Failure under Load Simulating the Hypocenter Condition

A series of acoustic emission (AE) experiments of rock failure have been conducted under cyclic load in tri-axial stress tests. To simulate the hypocenter condition the specimens are loaded by the combined action of a constant stress, intended to simulate

Some characteristics of low-speed streaks under sheared air-water interfaces

The characteristics of low-speed fluid streaks occurring under sheared air-water interfaces were examined by means of hydrogen bubble visualization technique. A critical shear condition under which the streaky structure first appears was determined to be u(tau) approximate to 0.19 cm/s. The mean spanwise streak spacing increases with distance from the water surface owing to merging and bursting processes, and a linear relationship describing variation of non-dimensional spacing <(+)over bar> versus y(+) was found essentially independent of shear stress on the interface. Values of <(+)over bar>, however, are remarkably smaller than their counterparts in the near-wall region of turbulent boundary layers. Though low-speed streaks occur randomly in time and space, the streak spacing exhibits a lognormal probability distribution behavior. A tentative explanation concerning the formation of streaky structure is suggested, and the fact that <(+)over bar> takes rather smaller values than that in wall turbulence is briefly discussed.

Mechanical effects of the self-organization of dislocations and related critical characteristics

The effects of the dislocation pattern formed due to the self-organization of the dislocations in crystals on the macroscopic hardening and dynamic internal friction (DIF) during deformation are studied. The classic dislocation models for the hardening and DIF corresponding to the homogeneous dislocation configuration are extended to the case for the non-homogeneous one. In addition, using the result of dislocation patterning deduced from the non-linear dlislocation dynamics model for single slip, the correlation between the dislocation pattern and hardening as well as DIF is obtained. It is shown that in the case of the tension with a constant strain rate, the bifurcation point of dislocation patterning corresponds to the turning point in the stress versus strain and DIF versus strain curves. This result along with the critical characteristics of the macroscopic behavior near the bifurcation point is microscopically and macroscopically in agreement with the experimental findings on mono-crystalline pure aluminum at temperatures around 0.5T(m). The present study suggests that measuring the DIF would be a sensitive and useful mechanical means in order to study the critical phenomenon of materials during deformation.

Two critical crack propagating velocities for PMMA fracture surface

Ultrasonic fractography and scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) are used to determine the direct relationship between the fracture surface morphology and the main crack velocity during the rapid rupture of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). Two critical crack velocities are found for the fracture. Quasi-parabolic markings will appear when the crack speed exceeds the first critical speed. Crack propagating at speed above the second critical speed leaves a thicket of small branches penetrating the surface behind them. Both critical speeds are functions of the thickness of the specimens.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Fractals and Scaling in Fracture Induced by Microcrack Coalescence

A numerical model is proposed to simulate fracture induced by the coalescence of numerous microcracks, in which the condition for coalescence between two randomly nucleated microcracks is determined in terms of a load-sharing principle. The results of the simulation show that, as the number density of nucleated microcracks increases, stochastic coalescence first occurs followed by a small fluctuation, and finally a newly nucleated microcrack triggers a cascade coalescence of microcracks resulting in catastrophic failure. The fracture profiles exhibit self-affine fractal characteristics with a universal roughness exponent, but the critical damage threshold is sensitive to details of the model. The spatiotemporal distribution of nucleated microcracks in the vicinity of critical failure follows a power-law behaviour, which implies that the microcrack system may evolve to a critical state.

A New Ignition Criterion Based Upon a Critical Thermal Energy Density

It has long been known that various ignition criteria of energetic materials have been limited in applicability to small regions. In order to explore the physical nature of ignition, we calculated how much thermal energy per unit mass of energetic materials was absorbed under different external stimuli. Hence, data of several typical sensitivity tests were analyzed by order of magnitude estimation. Then a new concept on critical thermal energy density was formulated. Meanwhile, the chemical nature of ignition was probed into by chemical kinetics.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Damping of Vertically Excited Surface Wave in Weakly Viscous Fluid

In a vertically oscillating circular cylindrical container, singular perturbation theory of two-time scale expansions is developed in weakly viscous fluids to investigate the motion of single free surface standing wave by linearizing the Navier-Stokes equation. The fluid field is divided into an outer potential flow region and an inner boundary layer region. The solutions of both two regions are obtained and a linear amplitude equation incorporating damping term and external excitation is derived. The condition to appear stable surface wave is obtained and the critical curve is determined. In addition, an analytical expression of damping coefficient is determined. Finally, the dispersion relation, which has been derived from the inviscid fluid approximation, is modified by adding linear damping. It is found that the modified results are reasonably closer to experimental results than former theory. Result shows that when forcing frequency is low, the viscosity of the fluid is prominent for the mode selection. However, when forcing frequency is high, the surface tension of the fluid is prominent.

Hydrothermal Wave in a Shallow Liquid Layer

The oscillatory thermocapillary convection and hydrothermal wave in a shallow liquid layer, where a temperature difference is applied between two parallel sidewalls, have been numerically investigated in a two-dimensional model. The oscillatory thermocapillary convection and hydrothermal wave appear if the Marangoni number is larger than a critical value. The critical phase speed and critical wave number of the hydrothermal wave agree with the ones given analytically by Smith and Davis in the microgravity environment, and it travels in the direction opposed to the surface flow. Another wave traveled downstream in addition to the hydrothermal wave traveled upstream was observed in the case of earth gravity condition.

A Study on the Microstructure Characteristic of the Cold-Rolled Deformed Nanocrystalline Nickel

In this paper the microstructure characteristic of the cold-rolled deformed nanocrystalline Nickel metal has been studied by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The results show that there were step structures near by grain boundary (GB), and the contrast of stress field in front of the step corresponds to the step in the shape. It indicates that the interaction between twins and dislocations is not a necessary condition to realizing the deformation. In the later stage of the deformation when the grain size became about 100 nm, the deformation occurs only depend upon the moving of the boundary of the stack faults (SFs) which result from the imperfection dislocations emitted from GBs. In the other word, the movement of the boundary dislocations of SFs results to growing-up of the size of the SFs, therefore realizes deformation. However, when the size of stack faults grows up, the local internal stress which is in front of the step gradually becomes higher. When this stress reach a critical value stopping the gliding of the partial dislocations, the SFs will stop growing up and leave a step structure behind.

Step Structure in Cold-Rolled Deformed Nanocrystalline Nickel

The microstructure characteristic of the cold-rolled deformed nanocrystalline nickel metal is studied by transmission electron microscopy. The results show that there are step structures nearby the grain boundary (GB), and the contrast of stress field in front of the step corresponds to the step in the shape. It is indicated that the interaction between twins and dislocations is not a necessary condition to realizing the deformation. In the later stage of the deformation when the grain size becomes about 100nm, the deformation can depend upon the moving of the boundary of the stack faults (SFs) which result from the partial dislocations emitted from GBs. However, when the size of SFs grows up, the local internal stress which is in front of the step gradually becomes higher. When this stress reaches a critical value which stops the gliding of the partial dislocations, the SFs will stop to grow up and leave a step structure behind.

Critical Sensitivity and Trans-Scale Fluctuations in Catastrophic Rupture

Rupture in the heterogeneous crust appears to be a catastrophe transition. Catastrophic rupture sensitively depends on the details of heterogeneity and stress transfer on multiple scales. These are difficult to identify and deal with. As a result, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture presents uncertainty. This may be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. Based on a coupled pattern mapping model, we represent critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations associated with catastrophic rupture. Critical sensitivity means that a system may become significantly sensitive near catastrophe transition. Trans-scale fluctuations mean that the level of stress fluctuations increases strongly and the spatial scale of stress and damage fluctuations evolves from the mesoscopic heterogeneity scale to the macroscopic scale as the catastrophe regime is approached. The underlying mechanism behind critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations is the coupling effect between heterogeneity and dynamical nonlinearity. Such features may provide clues for prediction of catastrophic rupture, like material failure and great earthquakes. Critical sensitivity may be the physical mechanism underlying a promising earthquake forecasting method, the load-unload response ratio (LURR).