1987年大兴安岭特大火灾后北坡森林景观生态恢复评价

通过空间直观景观模型(LAND IS)来探讨大兴安岭北坡1987年特大森林火灾后,在目前这种恢复方案下以及完全依靠天然更新下森林景观的长期动态,通过对比研究来评价目前所采取的恢复措施是否能够有效地恢复森林资源。研究结果表明:1987年大火后所采取的恢复措施可以在很大程度上增加针叶树种在该区所占的比例,而相应地降低阔叶树种的比重。由于在目前的恢复措施下,不仅大面积地种植针叶树种,同时也采伐了大量的成、过熟林,使落叶松和樟子松的蓄积量在开始阶段不仅没有增加,反而有大幅度的下降。但最终,所更新的幼苗逐渐成材,落叶松和樟子松的蓄积量逐渐超过天然更新下的。在演替前期,白桦的蓄积量在这2种模拟方案下相差不大;而在演替后期,白桦在天然更新方案下的蓄积量要高于在目前恢复措施下的蓄积量。另外,物种在不同的区域的变化动态又有较大的差异。在重度火烧区,由于人为种植大量的针叶树种,使它们所占的面积比例明显高于完全依靠天然更新下其在重度火烧区所占的比例;而阔叶树种则相反,在完全依靠天然更新方案下所占的面积百分比明显高于在目前恢复方案下的比例。而在未火烧和轻中度火烧区,由于火后人为采伐大量的落叶松和樟子松,使这2个树种在该区所占的比例在开始100多年里要低于完全依靠天然更新下的比例,随后逐渐高于天然更新下所占的比例,但相差不大;阔叶树种则正好相反。另外,目前恢复方案不仅极大地改变了主要物种在该区所占的比例,而且还明显的影响了它们的空间分布格局。

1987年大兴安岭特大火灾后不同管理措施对落叶松林的长期影响

采用空间直观景观模型(LANDIS)模拟了3种不同经营措施(假设1987年未发生特大火灾,完全依靠天然更新(M1);1987年特大火灾发生后依靠天然更新(M2)和火灾后采取目前森林经营措施(M3))下图强林业局落叶松及其成过熟林300年的动态变化.结果表明:林业局整体水平上,M1和M3方案下落叶松林面积占森林总面积的比例明显高于M2方案.M3方案下落叶松面积比例开始时低于M1方案,但由于大规模的人工更新,随后迅速增加,约100年后赶上M1方案.不同经营措施对落叶松面积百分比影响较大,并对其年龄结构有显著影响.M1方案下落叶松成过熟林面积比例明显高于M2方案;而在M3方案下,由于火后10年大规模的森林采伐,落叶松成过熟林的面积比例锐减,随后逐渐增加,但需要近100年才能达到并超过其他2种方案.此外,在火烧区和未火烧区,落叶松及其成过熟林在不同经营措施下的变化趋势存在明显差异.

1987年特大火灾后不同树种种植比例对大兴安岭森林景观的长期影响

应用空间直观景观模型(LANDIS)模拟了1987年大兴安岭北坡图强林业局特大森林火灾后在目前种植强度下,不同落叶松和樟子松种植比例(100%落叶松(P1)、70%落叶松和30%樟子松(P2)、50%落叶松和50%樟子松(P3)、30%落叶松和70%樟子松(P4)、100%樟子松(P5))以及完全依靠天然更新(P0)条件下森林景观的长期动态变化.结果表明,在演替的前期、中期和后期,不同种植比例均对落叶松、樟子松和白桦有显著影响;落叶松所占的面积百分比随时间的推移均呈上升趋势,而樟子松则相反;在各种植预案下,落叶松和樟子松的面积百分比均高于天然更新预案的比例,随着落叶松种植比例的增加,落叶松的多度也相应增加;樟子松在该区所占的面积百分比也随其种植比例的增大而增加.白桦在天然更新预案下所占的面积百分比明显高于种植预案下所占的比例;而不同落叶松和樟子松种植比例也对白桦面积有较大影响,樟子松种植的比例越大,白桦所占的面积百分比越高,说明落叶松比樟子松有更强的竞争能力.但P2、P3和P4预案下,落叶松和樟子松的面积所占比例相差不大,但要高于完全种植落叶松(P1)或樟子松(P)所占的比例.

跨世纪中国粮食面临的问题与对策选择

一、国外和国内粮食发展现状1996年11月13日至17日,世界粮食首脑会议在意大利罗马举行,这次会议是第一次关于粮食问题首脑会议,体现了各国政府对粮食的高度重视,会议通过了《世界粮食安全罗马宣言》和《世界粮食首脑会议行动计划》。呼吁世界各国在国际合作的基础上采取实际行动,确保全球持久的粮食安全。20世纪以来,世界粮食生产取得较大的发展,1951～1987年的47年中,世界谷物总产从6.75亿吨增加到1997年约20亿吨。谷物总产持续增长,其中增长最快1975～1985年年均增长2.97%,90年代以来,世界粮食增长缓慢,1994年比1990年下降0.2%,致使1995年全球粮价普遍上涨,阿根廷上涨15%,美国2号硬小麦上涨16%,在芝加哥,多次出现动用投资资金进行投资购买的活动,造成小麦价格急剧上扬,几乎为十年来最高水平。随着经济的发展与人口的增加,世界粮食的需求也达到有史以来的最高峰,同期由于人口急剧膨胀,全球人口由25.5亿增加到1999年的60亿,净增加34.5亿,年均增长约9000万人,90年代以后,年均新增人口近1亿人,预计到2015年人口达到70亿,2025年将增至80亿,对粮食需求越来越大。由于...

通过对心理学期刊的几项统计分析看我国十年来儿童发展教育心理学研究状况与动向

In this study, bibliometric method was usded in the investigation of 2274 papers concerning child developmental and educational psychology, which were published during the ten years of 1979-1988, in 14 psychological journals and 97 other scientific journals. According to the quantitative and qualitative analyses, the results are as follows: 1979-1988 saw the rapid development and prosperous period in China's child developmental and educational psychology, During which more papers were published and more fields couched than in the psvious thirty years. The number of literature publications increased and went to the peak in 1983 and 1984, and came down since 1985. The trend was found to result from the decrease in popular science introductions of psychology, which reflected that a heat of psychology had appeared in 1983 and started to cool in 1985. At the mean time, the number of research reports had been holding a steady increase by 1987 and decreased obviously in 1988, especially in the fields of cognitive and social development. There could be several possible explanations of this phenonemon: Piagetian studies are becoming fewer and the eakening of Piaget's influence might predict a period of standstill in the field of developmental psychology in China; As researches become more and more difficult, researchers have turned to be more cautious in lay out their reports; the cutdown of fees and staff could also be one of reasons for less publication in 1988. As the factors mentioned above still exist and their influences last, the number of papers are not expected to increase in the near future. The field of thinking and menory is closely connected with that of artificial intelligence. The downhill situations in these two fileds should be taken seriously. 2. The types of research work are divided on the bases of their problem raising. The trends show that the deepening studies, which represent a comaratively higher level of exploration, are waving fewer, while repeated studies and creative studies are becoming more as the years go along. This fact is worth being further analysed. Big progress could be seen from research methods. The methods currently used are mainly experiment, psychological measurement and assessment, and theoretical reasoning. There is a rapid increase of research by using scales. Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Binet Scale and Baley Scale have been revised andstandardized. Chinese researchers have also developed several good scales of their own, some of which are valuable and need to be standardized. In the papers investigated, the amount of citation is significantly lower than the world average level as well as the average citation number of whole China's scientific literature. Among the papers cited, most are of Chinese and English languages, and only a small rate were published in resently five years. The renewal of literature cited seems to stay at a low level in the ten years. Tremendous work could be reflected by the number of subjects used the research work in those ten years: 362665. A lot of studies piled on the period of 4-16 year olds. Compared with the previous thirty years, the age range was much enlarged and there were quite a few studies about preschool, school and adolescent periods. The study of newborn of 0-3 has been a weak point so far and it is a field to which chinese developmental psychologists should pay more attention. The progress in using statistics is one of the most obvious part in the development in the research work of child developmental and educational psychology. The one tendency that should be awared and avoid is to put the cart before the horse: seeking for more sophisticated statistic method while neglecting the meanings of research problems. 3. Citation analysis was used in selecting scholars who had great influence in the field of child developmental and educational psychology. Among the often cited and famous scholars, 31 are Chinese researchers and 12 are Western psychologists. The authoritative journal for child developmental psychology and educational psychology is Acta Psychologica Sinica.