流动单元四维模型和剩余油预测以濮城油田为例

This study is aimed to reveal macroscopic and microscopic anisotropism by using new theories, new methods and new technology. In order to reveal the forming mechanism and distribution pattern of remaining oil, flow units 4-dimension model and realistic model was established according the data over 20 years development of the Pucheng Oil field. Based on theories of multi-discipline subject, methods and technologies, by using correspondent 4-D data body and computer, combining quantity and quality study, static and development data, macroscopic and microscopic data, the two different geneses' reservoir, eg., braided delta and lake delta, are studied. The two different geneses' reservoir flow units models were established. Main achievement of this thesis are summarized as following: The standard of parameter optimization, identification and appreciation of two different geneses' reservoir were established. Based on the standard, the reservoir were classed into four flow units class as G,E,F and P. The flow unit static models of two different geneses' reservoir were established, and the relation of geometric shape, space distribution and macroscopic remaining oil was revealed. the flow units microscopic model were established, which tells that the changes of all the microscopic factor in the development. (4) Accordig BP arithmetic method, an adapt arithmetic method were designed, and the reservoir flow units were simulated based on the new method. (5) Reservoir realistic model of flow unit were established. Based on the model the microscopic development is simulated, which reveals the oil and water seepage in the reservoir and the mechanism of the microscopic oil formation. (6) The spatial residual oil distribution patterns were summarized. The remaided oil is mainly in the places as not being affected by the injected water, high part of the structures and the place near the sealed faults. There are 3 kinds and 9 distribution modes of microscopic remaining oil. The forming mechanism and distribution rule were pointed out. The study has developed a set of theories, technology and methods for flow units study, including flow units description, characterization and prediction. The study is also an improvement of the development geology theory in continental fault depression lake basin.

胜利油田低渗透砂岩油藏非均质地质建模

Guided by geological theories, the author analyzed factual informations and applied advanced technologies including logging reinterpretation, predicting of fractal-based fracture network system and stochastic modeling to the low permeable sandstone reservoirs in Shengli oilfield. A new technology suitable for precious geological research and 3D heterogeneity modeling was formed through studies of strata precious correlation, relation between tectonic evolution and fractural distribution, the control and modification of reservoirs diagenesis, logging interpretation mathematical model, reservoir heterogeneity, and so on. The main research achievements are as follows: (1) Proposed four categories of low permeable reservoirs, which were preferable, general, unusual and super low permeable reservoir, respectively; (2) Discussed ten geological features of the low permeable reservoirs in Shengli area; (3) Classified turbidite fan of Es_3 member of the Area 3 in Bonan oilfield into nine types of lithological facies, and established the facies sequences and patterns; (4) Recognized that the main diagenesis were compaction, cementation and dissolution, among which the percent compaction was up to 50%~90%; (5) Divided the pore space in ES_3 member reservoir into secondary pores with dissolved carbonate cement and residual intergranular pores strongly compacted and cemented; (6) Established logging interpretation mathematical model guided by facies- control modeling theory; (7) Predicted the fracture distribution in barriers using fractal method; (8) Constructed reservoir structural model by deterministic method and the 3D model of reservoir parameters by stochastic method; (9) Applied permeability magnitudes and directions to describe the fractures' effect on fluid flow, and presented four different fractural configurations and their influence on permeability; (10) Developed 3D modeling technology for the low permeable sandstone reservoirs. The research provided reliable geological foundation for the establishment and modification of development plans in low permeable sandstone reservoirs, improved the development effect and produced more reserves, which provided technical support for the stable and sustained development of Shengli Oilfield.

企业经营风险决策的组织行为学研究

This thesis has investigated the risk preferences of the Chinese company managers in kinds of simulated decision situations and their perceptions of risk concerning types of business decisions. Four studies are conducted: Study I is utility analysis. 214 company managers and 46 middle - school headmasters have responded to Utility Measurement Survey. The results indicate: (1) The risk preferences of the managers vary in the different decision situations. In most of the situations, most of the managers are risk aversion; In few situations, they are risk-seeking. (2) In some of the decision situations, there are significant differences on risk preference between business managers and school headmasters, male managers and female managers, senior managers and junior managers, managers with high qualifications and managers with low qualifications, non-state-owned firms' managers and state-owned firms' managers, medium-small sized firms' managers and large-sized firms' managers. In the other situations there aren't significant differences between them. (3) In all of the decision situations, so significant differences on risk preference are found among managers with different marriage, experience, age and education. Study II is risky decision simulation. The Risky Decision Situations Simulation Survey is administered to 82 company managers. The result indicates that firm culture, business condition, survival limit and risk preference of the superior influence the managers' risk decision-making behavior. Study III is perceptions of business decision risks. 68 company managers have filled in Decision Cases Risk Perception Inventory. The results indicate: (1) Inaccurate market analysis and prediction, instable politics and the changes of economic policy are the more risky elements to strategy decision. (2) Erroneous market analysis and prediction, appearance of new technology and the changes of market demands are the more risky elements to investment decision. (3) Poor quality control, backward technology and too large stocks are the more risky elements to production decision. (4) Shortage of development fund, wrong choice in development project and limitation of the development ability are the more risky elements to new production development decision. (5) No payment of the foreign partner's capital, the changes of national relevant policy, difficulty in marketing, too high selling prices of foreign partner's equipments are the more risky elements to joint-venture decision. (6) Unfamilarity with oneself and misjudgement in qualification of oneself are the more risky elements to personnel decision. (7) Bad market of the product, defects in product quality and the changes of consumers demands are the more risky elements to marketing decision. (8) Wrong strategy and ambiguous goals are the more risky elements to public relation decision. (9) Violation of the law, ambiguous goals and poor creation are the more risky elements to advertisement decision. (10) Deterioration of diplomatic relations, unsuitable products for foreign consumers and unfamilarity with foreign market are the more risky elements to international business decision. Study IV is structured interview. 5 company managers have answered all questions of the Interview Questionnaire. The results indicate: (1) The managers think that risks are the possible unfavourable consequences of decisions; (2) The self-ratings of the managers coordinate with the results of utility measurement; (3) The managers admit that risks always accompany bussiness decision; (4) Individual difference is found among managers on risk perception. This thesis has also pointed out the important implications of the research and discussed several further questions.