22 resultados para Multiple methods framework
Resumo:
With long-term marine surveys and research, and especially with the development of new marine environment monitoring technologies, prodigious amounts of complex marine environmental data are generated, and continuously increase rapidly. Features of these data include massive volume, widespread distribution, multiple-sources, heterogeneous, multi-dimensional and dynamic in structure and time. The present study recommends an integrative visualization solution for these data, to enhance the visual display of data and data archives, and to develop a joint use of these data distributed among different organizations or communities. This study also analyses the web services technologies and defines the concept of the marine information gird, then focuses on the spatiotemporal visualization method and proposes a process-oriented spatiotemporal visualization method. We discuss how marine environmental data can be organized based on the spatiotemporal visualization method, and how organized data are represented for use with web services and stored in a reusable fashion. In addition, we provide an original visualization architecture that is integrative and based on the explored technologies. In the end, we propose a prototype system of marine environmental data of the South China Sea for visualizations of Argo floats, sea surface temperature fields, sea current fields, salinity, in-situ investigation data, and ocean stations. An integration visualization architecture is illustrated on the prototype system, which highlights the process-oriented temporal visualization method and demonstrates the benefit of the architecture and the methods described in this study.
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A quantitative structure-property study has been made on the relationship between molar absorptivities (epsilon) of asymmetrical phosphone bisazo derivatives of chromotropic acid and their color reactions with cerium by multiple regression analysis and neural network. The new topological indices A(x1) - A(x3) suggested in our laboratory and molecular connectivity indices of 43 compounds have been calculated. The results obtained from the two methods are compared. The neural network model is superior to the regression analysis technique and gave a prediction which was sufficiently accurate to estimate the molar absorptivities of color reagents during their color reactions with cerium.
Resumo:
Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
As a typical geological and environmental hazard, landslide has been causing more and more property and life losses. However, to predict its accurate occurring time is very difficult or even impossible due to landslide's complex nature. It has been realized that it is not a good solution to spend a lot of money to treat with and prevent landslide. The research trend is to study landslide's spatial distribution and predict its potential hazard zone under certain region and certain conditions. GIS(Geographical Information System) is a power tools for data management, spatial analysis based on reasonable spatial models and visualization. It is new and potential study field to do landslide hazard analysis and prediction based on GIS. This paper systematically studies the theory and methods for GIS based landslide hazard analysis. On the basis of project "Mountainous hazard study-landslide and debris flows" supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences and the former study foundation, this paper carries out model research, application, verification and model result analysis. The occurrence of landslide has its triggering factors. Landslide has its special landform and topographical feature which can be identify from field work and remote sensing image (aerial photo). Historical record of landslide is the key to predict the future behaviors of landslide. These are bases for landslide spatial data base construction. Based on the plenty of literatures reviews, the concept framework of model integration and unit combinations is formed. Two types of model, CF multiple regression model and landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model are bought forward. CF multiple regression model comes form statistics and possibility theory based on data. Data itself contains the uncertainty and random nature of landslide hazard, so it can be seen as a good method to study and understand landslide's complex feature and mechanics. CF multiple regression model integrates CF (landslide Certainty Factor) and multiple regression prediction model. CF can easily treat with the problems of data quantifying and combination of heteroecious data types. The combination of CF can assist to determine key landslide triggering factors which are then inputted into multiple regression model. CF regression model can provide better prediction results than traditional model. The process of landslide can be described and modeled by suitable physical and mechanical model. Landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model is such a physical deterministic model that can be easily used for landslide hazard analysis and prediction. It couples the general limit equilibrium method and hydrological distribution model based on DEM, and can be used as a effective approach to predict the occurrence of landslide under different precipitation conditions as well as landslide mechanics research. It can not only explain pre-existed landslides, but also predict the potential hazard region with environmental conditions changes. Finally, this paper carries out landslide hazard analysis and prediction in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed, including landslide hazard sensitivity analysis and regression prediction model based on selected key factors, determining the relationship between landslide occurrence possibility and triggering factors. The result of landslide hazard analysis and prediction by coupled model is discussed in details. On the basis of model verification and validation, the modeling results are showing high accuracy and good applying potential in landslide research.
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Halfgraben-like depressions have multiple layers of subtle traps, multiple coverings of oil-bearing series and multiple types of reservoirs. But these reservoirs have features of strong concealment and are difficult to explore. For this reason, many scholars contribute efforts to study the pool-forming mechanism for this kind of basins, and establish the basis for reservoir exploration and development. However, further study is needed. This paper takes HuiMin depression as an example to study the pool-forming model for the gentle slope belts of fault-depression lake basins. Applying multi-discipline theory, methods and technologies including sedimentary geology, structural geology, log geology, seismic geology, rock mechanics and fluid mechanics, and furthermore applying the dynamo-static data of oil reservoir and computer means in maximum limitation, this paper, qualitatively and quantitatively studies the depositional system, structural framework, structural evolution, structural lithofacies and tectonic stress field, as well as fluid potential field, sealing and opening properties of controlling-oil faults and reservoir prediction, finally presents a pool-forming model, and develops a series of methods and technologies suited to the reservoir prediction of the gentle slope belt. The results obtained in this paper richen the pool-forming theory of a complex oil-gas accumulative area in the gentle slope belt of a continental fault-depression basin. The research work begins with the study of geometric shape of fracture system, then the structural form, activity stages and time-space juxtaposition of faults with different level and different quality are investigated. On the basis of study of the burial history, subsidence history and structural evolution history, this paper synthesizes the studied results of deposition system, analyses the structural lithofacies of the gentle slope belt in the HuiMing Depression and its controlling roles to oil reservoir in the different structural lithofacies belts in time-space, and presents their evolution patterns. The study of structural stress field and fluid potential field indicates that the stress field has a great change from the Dong Ying stages to nowadays. One marked point among them is that the Dong Ying double peak- shaped nose structures usually were the favorable directional area for oil and gas migration, while the QuDi horst became favorable directional area since the GuanTao stage. Based on the active regular of fractures and the information of crude oil saturation pressure, this paper firstly demonstrates that the pool-forming stages of the LingNan field were prior to the stages of the QuDi field, whici provides new eyereach and thinking for hydrocarbon exploration in the gentle slope belt. The BeiQiao-RenFeng buried hill belt is a high value area with the maximum stress values from beginning to end, thus it is a favorable directional area for oil and gas migration. The opening and sealing properties of fractures are studied. The results obtained demonstrate their difference in the hydrocarbon pool formation. The seal abilities relate not only with the quality, direction and scale of normal stress, with the interface between the rocks of two sides of a fault and with the shale smear factor (SSF), but they relate also with the juxtaposition of fault motion stage and hydrocarbon migration. In the HuiMin gentle slope belt, the fault seal has difference both in different stages, and in different location and depth in the same stage. The seal extent also displays much difference. Therefore, the fault seal has time-space difference. On the basis of study of fault seal history, together with the obtained achievement of structural stress field and fluid potential field, it is discovered that for the pool-forming process of oil and gas in the studied area the fault seal of nowadays is better than that of the Ed and Ng stages, it plays an important role to determine the oil column height and hydrocarbon preservation. However, the fault seal of the Ed and Ng stages has an important influence for the distribution state of oil and gas. Because the influential parameters are complicated and undefined, we adopt SSF in the research work. It well reflects synthetic effect of each parameter which influences fault seal. On the basis of the above studies, three systems of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation, as well as a pool-forming model are established for the gentle slope belt of the HuiMin depression, which can be applied for the prediction of regular patterns of oil-gas migration. Under guidance of the pool-forming geological model for the HuiMin slope belt, and taking seismic facies technology, log constraint evolution technology, pattern recognition of multiple parameter reservoir and discrimination technology of oil-bearing ability, this paper develops a set of methods and technologies suited to oil reservoir prediction of the gentle slope belt. Good economic benefit has been obtained.
Resumo:
The Dongying depression, located in the northern part of the jiyang Sag in the Buohaiwan Basin, comprises one of the major oil-producing bases of the Shengli oil-field. The prediction and exploration of subtle or litho1ogical oil traps in the oil-field has become the major confronted target. This is also one of the frontier study areas in the highly-explored oil-bearing basins in East China and abroad. Based on the integrated analysis of the geological, seismic and logging data and the theories of sequence stratigraphy, tectono-stratigraphy and petroleum system, the paper has attempted to document the characteristics of the sequence stratigraphic and structural frameworks of the low Tertiary, the syndepositional faults and their control on deposition, and then to investigate the forming conditions and distribution of the tithological oil traps in the depression. The study has set up a set of analysis methods, which can be used to effectively analysis the sequence stratigraphy of inland basins and predict the distribution of sandstone reservoirs in the basins. The major achievements of the study are as follows: 1. The low Tertiary can be divided into 4 second-order sequences and 13 third-order sequences, and the systems tracts in the third-order sequences have been also identified based on the examination and correction of well logging data and seismic profiles. At the same time, the parasequences and their stacking pattern in the deltaic systems of the third member of the Shahejie Formation have been recognized in the key study area. It has been documented that the genetic relation of different order sequences to tectonic, climatic and sediment supply changes. The study suggested that the formation of the second-order sequences was related to multiple rifting, while the activity of the syndepositional faults controlled the stacking pattern of parasequences of the axial deltaic system in the depression. 2. A number of depositional facies have been recognized in the low Tertiary on the basis of seismic facies and well logging analysis. They include alluvial fan, fan delta or braided delta, axial delta, lowstand fan, lacustrine and gravity flow deposits. The lacustrine lowstand fan deposits are firstly recognized in the depression, and their facies architecture and distribution have been investigated. The study has shown that the lowstand fan deposits are the important sandstone reservoirs as lithological oil traps in the depression. 3. The mapping of depositional systems within sequences has revealed the time and special distrbution of depositional systems developed in the basin. It is pointed out that major elastic systems comprise the northern marginal depositional systems consisting of alluvial fan, fan delta and offshore lowstand fan deposits, the southern gentle slope elastic deposits composed of shallow lacustrine, braided delta and lowstand fan deposits and the axial deltaic systems including those from eastern and western ends of the depression. 4. The genetic relationship between the syndepositional faults and the distribution of sandstones has been studied in the paper, upper on the analysis of structural framework and syndepositional fault systems in the depression. The concept of structural slope-break has been firstly introduced into the study and the role of syndepositional faults controlling the development of sequence architecture and distribution of sandstones along the hinged and faulted margins have been widely investigated. It is suggested that structural styles of the structural slope-break controlled the distribution of lowstand fan deposits and formed a favorable zone for the formation of lithological or structure-lithological oil traps in the basin. 5. The paper has made a deep investigation into the forming condition and processes of the lithological traps in the depression, based the analysis of composition of reservoir, seal and resource rocks. It is pointed out that there were two major oil pool-forming periods, namely the end of the Dongying and Guangtao periods, and the later one is the most important. 6. The study has finally predicted a number of favorable targets for exploration of lithologieal traps in the depression. Most of them have been drilled and made great succeed with new discovered thousands tons of raw oil reserves.
Resumo:
Stochastic reservoir modeling is a technique used in reservoir describing. Through this technique, multiple data sources with different scales can be integrated into the reservoir model and its uncertainty can be conveyed to researchers and supervisors. Stochastic reservoir modeling, for its digital models, its changeable scales, its honoring known information and data and its conveying uncertainty in models, provides a mathematical framework or platform for researchers to integrate multiple data sources and information with different scales into their prediction models. As a fresher method, stochastic reservoir modeling is on the upswing. Based on related works, this paper, starting with Markov property in reservoir, illustrates how to constitute spatial models for catalogued variables and continuum variables by use of Markov random fields. In order to explore reservoir properties, researchers should study the properties of rocks embedded in reservoirs. Apart from methods used in laboratories, geophysical means and subsequent interpretations may be the main sources for information and data used in petroleum exploration and exploitation. How to build a model for flow simulations based on incomplete information is to predict the spatial distributions of different reservoir variables. Considering data source, digital extent and methods, reservoir modeling can be catalogued into four sorts: reservoir sedimentology based method, reservoir seismic prediction, kriging and stochastic reservoir modeling. The application of Markov chain models in the analogue of sedimentary strata is introduced in the third of the paper. The concept of Markov chain model, N-step transition probability matrix, stationary distribution, the estimation of transition probability matrix, the testing of Markov property, 2 means for organizing sections-method based on equal intervals and based on rock facies, embedded Markov matrix, semi-Markov chain model, hidden Markov chain model, etc, are presented in this part. Based on 1-D Markov chain model, conditional 1-D Markov chain model is discussed in the fourth part. By extending 1-D Markov chain model to 2-D, 3-D situations, conditional 2-D, 3-D Markov chain models are presented. This part also discusses the estimation of vertical transition probability, lateral transition probability and the initialization of the top boundary. Corresponding digital models are used to specify, or testify related discussions. The fifth part, based on the fourth part and the application of MRF in image analysis, discusses MRF based method to simulate the spatial distribution of catalogued reservoir variables. In the part, the probability of a special catalogued variable mass, the definition of energy function for catalogued variable mass as a Markov random field, Strauss model, estimation of components in energy function are presented. Corresponding digital models are used to specify, or testify, related discussions. As for the simulation of the spatial distribution of continuum reservoir variables, the sixth part mainly explores 2 methods. The first is pure GMRF based method. Related contents include GMRF model and its neighborhood, parameters estimation, and MCMC iteration method. A digital example illustrates the corresponding method. The second is two-stage models method. Based on the results of catalogued variables distribution simulation, this method, taking GMRF as the prior distribution for continuum variables, taking the relationship between catalogued variables such as rock facies, continuum variables such as porosity, permeability, fluid saturation, can bring a series of stochastic images for the spatial distribution of continuum variables. Integrating multiple data sources into the reservoir model is one of the merits of stochastic reservoir modeling. After discussing how to model spatial distributions of catalogued reservoir variables, continuum reservoir variables, the paper explores how to combine conceptual depositional models, well logs, cores, seismic attributes production history.