分布式水文模型的误差分析

分布式水文模型以其具有明确物理意义的参数结构和对空间分异性的全面反映,能够准确详尽地描述和模拟流域内真实的降水径流过程而被广泛需求和关注。在模拟土地利用、土地覆盖、水土流失等各种变化过程的水文响应,面源污染、陆面过程、气候变化影响评价等诸多领域都有广泛的应用。模型的预报精度和误差至关重要,决定了模型的应用和推广。在分析分布式水文模型建立和验证过程的基础上,提出了模型的4类误差来源:被排除在外的因素引起的误差,实测历史记录资料的随机或系统误差,参数误差和模型结构误差,讨论了各类误差的分析与计算方法,为模型的发展和成长提供了依据。

基于RS和GIS的四川省土地利用/覆盖变化及可持续利用研究

LUCC是全球变化研究的核心主题之一，也是社会经济可持续发展的关键问题。改革开放后四川的社会经济发展非常快，在各种因素的驱动下，土地利用/覆盖发生了深刻变化。目前四川省缺乏基于实际调查数据的、全域性的、具有连续时间序列的LUCC和驱动力分析及土地可持续利用研究成果，这对我们从全局上把握全省土地利用现状、发展变化趋势，利用土地政策参与宏观调控，实现长期可持续发展目标，建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会极为不利。本研究针对这一问题，选取全川八大土地利用类型作为研究对象，研究了全省1996年到2006年的土地利用/覆盖格局和变化情况，分析了不同尺度的驱动因素，对全省农用地和建设用地的集约利用状况、潜力进行了分析评价，并提出相应的对策措施。 1．1996年-2006年10年来整个省域的土地利用/覆盖格局变化。 （1）1996年-2006年全省的土地利用/覆盖格局 1996年，全省是一个以农用地为主的土地利用/覆盖格局，林地和牧草地属于优势覆盖类型（合占69.17%），居民点及工矿用地和交通用地合占只有3%左右。 2000年的LUCC格局较为明显的特点是耕地所占比重下降0.4个百分点，水域和未利用土地所占比重有所下降，牧草地保持不变，其余地类所占比重有所上升。 与2000年相比，2004年林草地的优势格局进一步得到强化（合占比重达到70.23%）。耕地面积占幅员面积的比重下降0.83个百分点，略有下降的有未利用土地、水域和牧草地。值得关注的是在“退耕还林还草”的大背景下，牧草地占幅员面积的比重下降0.04个百分点。 到2006年，仍为林草地为主导优势的格局，二者合占上升0.15%。在城市化快速推进的背景下，居民点及工矿用地中的城市用地和建制镇用地占比重超过15%，农村居民点占比重降至76%。交通用地中农村道路占比重降至57.8%,公路用地占比重升至37.5%。五个地貌区的土地利用/覆盖格局与全省的变化基本一致。值得关注的是盆西平原区的交通用地上升幅度和盆地丘陵区的未利用土地的开发利用力度明显大于其它地貌区。 （2）1996-2006年10年间土地利用/覆盖格局的变化 1996-2000年4年间，耕地、水域和未利用地三个地类下降，年均减少0.75、0.19和0.32个百分点。其中耕地年均减少49229.0公顷，约一半流向林地，13.77%流向园地，约20%流向建设用地。另外5个地类面积增长，增长绝对量最大的是林地，年均增长40063.7公顷，交通用地增幅最大，4年年均增长达1.95%。 2001-2004年是西部大开发逐步推进、“退耕还林还草”项目全面展开和土地整理深入实施的关键期，LUCC更为深刻。耕地、未利用地、水域和牧草地四个地类面积下降，其余地类按增长幅度依次是园地、交通用地、居民点及工矿用地和林地。耕地加速下降，年均降幅达到1.59%，其减少去向主要是林地（占66.75%）和园地（占19.84%），其增加来源主要是未利用地、园地和水域。交通用地的增幅最大，为3.96%,其增加主要来源于耕地、未利用土地和林地，分别占49.96%、16.63%和13.09%。居民点及工矿用地增长幅度为3.12%。 从1996年到2006年的10年间，耕地、未利用地、水域和牧草地下降幅度分别为10.36%、3.61%、1.34%和0.26%。园地增幅达23.61%。绝对面积增长最大的则是林地，达630733.3公顷。交通用地和居民点及工矿用地增幅也较大，分别为15.00%和9.31%。 10年间年均总变化量为310326.6公顷，2000年-2004年之间变化最大（为356865.8公顷），高于平均变化量，而1996-2000年间和2004-2006年间都小于平均变化量。 （3）10年间不同地貌区的LUCC变化 盆西平原区的特点是园地大幅上升达77%，居民点及工矿用地和交通用地也大幅上升，耕地、未利用地下降幅度大，该区耕地、水域、未利用地的减少强度和园地、居民点及工矿用地、交通用地的上升强度均居五区第一；盆地丘陵区的特点是牧草地下降幅度大，为-36.89%,交通用地、园地和林地上升幅度较大，该区耕地减少、未利用地减少、林地增加、居民点及工矿用地和交通用地增加的变化强度均居五区相应地类增减的第二位；盆周山地区的特点是耕地减少较多，交通用地和园地增长较大，该区林地变化强度居各区第一位，牧草地和水域变化强度居各区第二位，耕地、居民点及工矿用地和未利用地居各区第三位；川西南山地区的特点是园地、耕地、交通用地和居民点及工矿用地变化幅度大，另外四个地类变化较小。该区减少的牧草地占全省牧草地减少的97.91%，变化强度居各个地貌区的第一位，园地相对变化强度居五区的第二位；川西北高山高原区的特点是耕地大幅下降、园地大幅上升，交通用地升幅也较大，其余地类变化不大。值得注意的是，该区牧草地和水域面积增加，与全省该地类的变化相反。其余地类的相对变化强度均是五个地貌区中最小的。 用变化强度分值考量变化强度，盆西平原区的变化强度最大，盆地丘陵区和盆周山地区的变化强度相当，川西北高山高原区的变化强度则要小得多。 （4）1996年及2006年全省土地利用/覆盖格局的景观生态学分析 全省是以自然景观占优势（占约70%）、农业景观为补充、建设用地景观居于从属地位的土地利用景观格局。景观多样性和均匀度不高。到2006年，全省总的景观格局并无大的改变。总体情况是随着时间的推移和人类活动的加强，区内景观优势度上升、多样性和均匀度变小。但斑块数减少，斑块面积和斑块孔隙度有所增大。斑块的形状指数和分维数均有所下降，表明受人为干扰有加剧的趋势。反映景观格局结构的破碎度指数有轻微下降。景观指数的变化表明全省土地利用有缓慢集中、规模聚集的趋势。 （5）三大生态建设工程对土地利用/覆盖变化的影响 1996-2006年间LUCC与三大生态建设工程实施的耦合分析，发现退耕工程对耕地、林地、牧草地等地类覆盖变化的影响最大，天保工程次之，长防工程最小。 2.四川省LUCC驱动力分析 （1）总体分析： 从整体上分析，人为因素对区域整体LUCC的影响从1996年的63.32%增加到2006年的66.99%，变得日益强烈。同时人为因素影响强度表现出明显的区域差异，地势平缓、经济区位条件好的区域其人为影响强度明显较高。 政策体制转变下的经济高速增长、快速的城市化、工业化过程和生态建设是四川省LUCC宏观尺度的驱动因素。区域的LUCC主要受到了由内向外(从城市到乡村)和由外向内(从山顶向平地)两种作用力的共同推动。局部尺度上，如距离交通线、水利线、中心城市的远近，地形凸起、大型独立项目落址、重污染项目的阻隔等，甚至一些乡规民俗等因素也会成为LUCC的驱动影响因素。在较小的尺度上,人类个体行为选择对LUCC的影响也是存在的。 　　根据驱动因子的特性作者将其划分为驱变、阻变、良性、惰性因子等类型。 （2）分地貌区的驱动因子分析 各地貌区都存在城市化、工业化、生态工程实施、自然灾害等驱动因子，但主次不一。对于盆西平原和盆地丘陵区，城市化、工业化是前两位的因子，而对另外三个地貌区，生态工程实施和产业结构调整则成为第第一、二位的驱动因子。 （3）分地类的驱动因子分析（以坡耕地为例） 分坡度的耕地变化分析发现，耕地减少主要集中在2°以下的平地、15°-25°和25°以上三个坡度级，是其它坡度级耕地减幅的三倍左右。这表明耕地减少受城市化进程和“退耕还林还草”工程驱动影响尤为巨大。 3.土地利用格局优化、集约利用评价和可持续利用及对策研究 （1）土地利用格局优化的战略选择及调整预测 土地利用格局调整的战略是农业生产用地、建设用地和生态及其他用地占幅员的比重分别稳定在13%、7%和80%左右，重点是三大类别内部二级和三级地类的合理调整。 （2）全省土地集约利用评价 全省农用地利用集约度为0.46，总体上集约度不高，处于较适度利用阶段。建设用地利用集约度为0.38，处于较适度利用阶段。集约利用提升空间较大。 农用地的潜力主要在于加强土地保育、完善利用制度、提高单产。城市建设用地的包括存量潜力、强度潜力、结构潜力，空间很大。农村居民点整理潜力可以逐步挖掘。 （3）新增建设用地集约利用的统筹安排 据测算，到2020年，四川省城市建设用地需求量在463850-492360hm2之间，城镇各业新增建设用地规模为361276.79hm2，占用耕地200565.94 hm2。2004-2020年间四川省农村居民点整理潜力33.86万hm2。农村居民点建设用地需求量为70.57万公顷。 （4）土地集约利用措施与坡耕地可持续利用战略 提出了土地集约利用的措施。在对坡耕地生态系统结构与功能分析的基础上，提出坡耕地可持续利用战略与生态恢复战略，并从技术和政策层面提出了坡耕地合理利用和生态退耕的措施和建议。 LUCC is one of the key questions of global change and sustainable development of society. After the opening and reform of China, the society and economy of Sichuan Province developed very fast ,the land-use/cover changed very strong droved by many factors .But nowadays we have no constant spatial-temporal study and driving force analysis about the whole province based on investigation. And it is lack of land sustainable utilization study based on correlative study. So we choose all the land resource in Sichuan, combine RS and GIS and field investigation, and take statistic-mathematic means and system analysis, to study the LUCC patterns and different scale driving force of different physiognomy regions, land cover types and periods; to analyze the current situation and potential of land resource intensive utilization, and gave out corresponding measurements. We found that forest and grassland are the dominant cover types of Sichuan provincial land –use/cover pattern, and becoming more and more stronger from 1996 to 2006,the natural landscape is the metric and occupy 70%,the diversity and evenness index are not high; the totally change quantity from 2000 to 2004 is the biggest; cultivated land especially steep cultivated land ,garden plot, forestry land ,settlement and industry land and traffic land changed relative stronger; among five physiognomy regions ,the changing intensity of PEN XI PING YUAN QU is the biggest, CHUAN XI BEI GAO SHAN GAO QU is smallest; under the background of policy system changing, the fast developing of economy, fast urbanization and industrialization and ecology construction are the macro-scale driving force of Sichuan provincial LUCC; to compare the impacts of “TUI GENG GONG CHENG” on LUCC especially to cultivated land ,forestry land and grassland is strongest, “TIAN BAO GONG CHENG ” is stronger,“ HANG FANG GONG CHENG” is smallest; the intensive utilization level of farmland and construction land of whole province is relative moderation, there is huge potential to excavate and fulfill the increasing demand of construction land；we must take synthetic measurements to accelerate the sustainable utilization of land resource, including administrative, economical ,technological and ecological policies.

Effects of afforestation on soil carbon turnover in China's subtropical region

Afforestation in China's subtropics plays an important role in sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere and in storage of soil carbon (C). Compared with natural forests, plantation forests have lower soil organic carbon (SOC) content and great potential to store more C. To better evaluate the effects of afforestation on soil C turnover, we investigated SOC and its stable C isotope (delta C-13) composition in three planted forests at Qianyanzhou Ecological Experimental Station in southern China. Litter and soil samples were collected and analyzed for total organic C, delta C-13 and total nitrogen. Similarly to the vertical distribution of SOC in natural forests, SOC concentrations decrease exponentially with depth. The land cover type (grassland) before plantation had a significant influence on the vertical distribution of SOC. The SOC delta C-13 composition of the upper soil layer of two plantation forests has been mainly affected by the grass biomass C-13 composition. Soil profiles with a change in photosynthetic pathway had a more complex C-13 isotope composition distribution. During the 20 years after plantation establishment, the soil organic matter sources influenced both the delta C-13 distribution with depth, and C replacement. The upper soil layer SOC turnover in masson pine (a mean 34% of replacement in the 10 cm after 20 years) was more than twice as fast as that of slash pine (16% of replacement) under subtropical conditions. The results demonstrate that masson pine and slash pine plantations cannot rapidly sequester SOC into long-term storage pools in subtropical China.

Distribution characteristics of (CS)-C-137 in wind-eroded soil profile and its use in estimating wind erosion modulus

Due to its inert reaction in soil system and distinctive vertical distribution in soil profile, caesium-137 (Cs-137) has been used as a tracer to assess wind erosion. In this study, 62 soil samples were collected from 4 sampling sites in Taipusi County, Inner Mongolia; Caesium-137 activities for those soil samples were measured using a gamma-ray spectrometry in Sichuan University, Chengdu. Distribution pattern of Cs-137 in vertical soil profile was different for different land use and land cover types. Caesium-137 was distributed homogeneously in plow layer of cropland, and negatively exponential in low to medium cover grassland. Distribution pattern in high covered grassland was represented by a peak at 2-4 cm soil depth followed by a negative exponential curve. Based on those findings, simplified mass balance model was chosen to estimate the rate of wind erosion for cropland, while profile distribution model was used for grassland. Estimated wind erosion rates were 7990, 4270 and 1808 Mg(.)km(-2.)a(-1) for cropland, low cover grassland and medium cover grassland, respectively. Wind erosion intensity correlated negatively with plant cover.

Uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China: a comparison between an AVHRR-derived dataset and a Landsat TM-derived dataset

The large uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China may have significant implications for major cross-cutting themes of global environmental change-food production and trade, water resources, and the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Many earlier studies have indicated significant under-reporting of cropland area in China from official agricultural census statistics datasets. Space-borne remote sensing analyses provide an alternative and independent approach for estimating cropland area in China. In this study, we report estimates of cropland area from the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD-96) at the 1:100,000 scale, which was generated by a multi-year National Land Cover Project in China through visual interpretation and digitization of Landsat TM images acquired mostly in 1995 and 1996. We compared the NLCD-96 dataset to another land cover dataset at I-km spatial resolution (the IGBP DIScover dataset version 2.0), which was generated from monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April, 1992 to March, 1993. The data comparison highlighted the limitation and uncertainty of cropland area estimates from the DIScover dataset. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

浑善达克沙地与河北沽源地区土地沙漠化研究

The Otindag sandy land and the Guyuan region of Hebei Province lie in the agro-pastoral zone, where sandy desertification is serious. So they are typical for us to study on. In this paper, detail investigation were made on the Remote Sensing, Hydrochemistry, Chronology, grain size analyzing of research region to monitor sandy desertification and environmental background. The main conclusions are presented as following: 1. According to the diverse natural condition, the research area is divided into three types as sandy land desertification, cultivated land desertification and desertification reflected by lake change. The monitoring result of the first type shows that the main performance way of the sandy desertification in Otindag sandy land is that (1) the expansion of both the shifting dune and the half fixed sandy dune, (2) the reduce of the fixed sandy dune. While the result of the second type shows (1) the desertification land in the Guyuan region has first increasing then reducing change for about 30 years. (2) The sand mainly concentrates west of the research area and small part of wind-drift sand distributes northeast the research area with the spot shape. (3) The meadow area increases obviously. As far as the third type, the Dalai Nur lake area occurs first expanding then reducing change and the wind-drift sand around the lake first reduces then increases. 2. The land cover of the different types change with the same law. It is worth notice that the lake area changes oppositely with that of the wind-drift sand. 3. For about 5,000 a B.P. -2800 a B.P., the well developed palaeosols emerged. After that, three layer palaeosols were founded in the profile of Otindag sandy land. The analyses of grain size show that the sand grains of the south were coarser than that of the north. The sand in the north and middle were well sorted, while the south poor sorted. 4. Both the natural and human impact on the process of sandy desertification. On this research result, different regions have different influences. So the measures to improve sandy desertification should be choosed respectively.

热察绥地区过去300年土地利用覆被变化

The historical land use and land cover changes is one of the key issues in LUCC research. However, the achievement of China in this field doesn't match her position in the world yet. And the reliability of the quantitive records in Chinese historical literature, the basic data for historical land use research, has been doubted. This research focuses on Re-Cha-Sui, a typical area for the farming-pastoral region in the north of China, to make a detailed case study in this field. Based on a deep mining and calibration on the data from massive historical documents and land-use surveys, the author gives a detailed analysis on the administrative region evolution, historical population dynamics, reclamation policy, and the land statistic system. According to textual researches, parallel validation and physical geographical analysis, a unified land use series for recent 300 years, which founded on the results of modern land-use surveys, is constructed. And the thematic maps on the cultivation index for different counties in several temporal sections are plotted. Based on the endeavor above, the dynamic of forest and steppe is reconstructed as well. The temporal-spatial patterns of land use/land cover changes in the area is analyzed. And the influence of different driving forces are discussed. The main conclusions of the research are as followed: 1. The quantitive records in literatures on Re-Cha-Sui area are reflection of real amounts of croplands. It is practical to reconstruct a result comparable with the modern land-use surveys, based of a deep mining and considerate validation on historical documents. The unexceptional negative attitude towards the numerical records in historical documents is unnecessary. 2. In recent 300 years, 3 climax of reclamation appeared in Re-Cha-Sui area and altered the pure pastoral area into a farming-pastoral region. The interval were respectively the early time till mid time of the Qing dynasty, the end of the Qing dynasty till early time of the Republic of China(ROC), and the time after A.D. 1949. After the first expansion, the area of cropland in this region reached 2.0 million ha. Among them, Guisui area, which was most densely cultivated, had a cultivation index over 30%, which is similar with modern situation. The second expansion covered broader area, and the amount of cropland reached 3.5 million ha. The increase of farming area after 1949 is due to the recultivation of abandoned farmland. The current area of cropland in this region is 5.6 million ha. In the southern area where the land was reclaimed early, the amount on of the cropland has some fluctuation in 300 years. While in the new reclaimed area in the north, the area of cropland has kept the trend of increasing. 3. Due to the different natural conditions, most forests in Re-Cha-Sui area distribute in the mountain area of North Hebei province, and the upland of West Liaoning province, especially the former, which has a forest coverage near 70%. However, most of these forests were destroyed before the end of the Qing dynasty. In 1949, the natural forest near Chengde was nearly cleared up. They were partly renewed after 1949 due to plantation. 4. In the steppe zone such as northern Rehe, Suiyuan and Chahar, the area of steppe has a negative correlation with that of cropland. With the expansion of cropland, the percentage of steppe has shrunk from over 80% to 53%. In the mountain area of North Hebei province, steppe expanded with the shrinkage of forest, though cropland was expanding. The percentage once reached 60%, and then fell with the renew of forest. However, in the upland of West Liaoning province, the steppe shrink slowly from original 50% to current 26%, with the expansion of cropland. 5. The land use and land cover change in Re-Cha-Sui area in recent 300 years is driven by various factors, including human dimensions such as population, policy of the government, disorder of the society, cultural tradition, and natural factors such as climate change and natural disasters. Among them, pressure from surplus population is the basic driving force.

新疆自然区划单元土地利用/覆盖分布图谱研究

Under the direction of Geo-informatic Tupu theory, based on comprehensive natural division in Xinjiang and 1:100000 land use and land cover vector data in 2000 from resource and environment database of CAS, the paper gave out some distribution Tupu of land resource types in different regions of Xinjiang. GIS tools such as ARCTOOLS and ARCV1EW were used to clip the unit of each natural division. Some useful conclusions were established. Then the lower reaches of Tarim River were selected as typical area to analyze the ecological environment evolvement from 2000 to 2004 since the beginning of ecological water delivering. The comprehensive space-time analysis provided a method to monitor the effect dynamically. The main contents of the thesis are listed as follows: (1) Similarities and differences between North Xinjiang and South Xinjiang, 6 second-classified regions and 37 third-classified regions. The conclusion of each region emphasized the percentage of area of main land types, characteristic description and distribution of cultivated land > woodlands grassland-, water area^ urban and rural land and unused land. (2) Thematic Tupu of each region. It concluded artificial oasis Tupu, the proportion between dense-grass% moderate-grass and sparse-grass, pattern of land resources and the land use degree. The artificial oasis mean cultivated land^ woodland^ urban & rural land and other construction land. The proportion of grassland disclosed the quality of all grassland and showed the development of them. Pattern of land resources and the land use degree gave out the detailed development direction and development degree of each region. (3) Ecological environment evolvement of the lower reaches of Tarim River. The effects of each ecological water delivering were compared.

Industrial development and land use/cover change and their effects on local environment: a case study of Changshu in eastern coastal China

The interactions among industrial development, land use/cover change (LUCC), and environmental effects in Changshu in the eastern coastal China were analyzed using high-resolution Landsat TM data in 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2006, socio-economic data and water environmental quality monitoring data from research institutes and governmental departments. Three phases of industrial development in Changshu were examined (i.e., the three periods of 1990 to 1995, 1995 to 2000, and 2000 to 2006). Besides industrial development and rapid urbanization, land use/cover in Changshu had changed drastically from 1990 to 2006. This change was characterized by major replacements of farmland by urban and rural settlements, artificial ponds, forested and constructed land. Industrialization, urbanization, agricultural structure adjustment, and rural housing construction were the major socio-economic driving forces of LUCC in Changshu. In addition, the annual value of ecosystem services in Changshu decreased slightly during 1990-2000, but increased significantly during 2000-2006. Nevertheless, the local environmental quality in Changshu, especially in rural areas, has not yet been improved significantly. Thus, this paper suggests an increased attention to fully realize the role of land supply in adjustment of environment-friendly industrial structure and urban-rural spatial restructuring, and translating the land management and environmental protection policies into an optimized industrial distribution and land-use pattern.

Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995-2000

It is more and more acknowledged that land-use/cover dynamic change has become a key subject urgently to be dealt with in the study of global environmental change. Supported by the Landsat TM digital images, spatial patterns and temporal variation of land-use change during 1995 -2000 are studied in the paper. According to the land-use dynamic degree model, supported by the 1km GRID data of land-use change and the comprehensive characters of physical, economic and social features, a dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed to disclose the spatial pattern of land-use change processes. Generally speaking, in the traditional agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plains, Yangtze River Delta and Sichuan Basin, the built-up and residential areas occupy a great proportion of arable land, and in the interlock area of farming and pasturing of northern China and the oases agricultural zones, the reclamation I of arable land is conspicuously driven by changes of production conditions, economic benefits and climatic conditions. The implementation of "returning arable land into woodland or grassland" policies has won initial success in some areas, but it is too early to say that the trend of deforestation has been effectively reversed across China. In this paper, the division of dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed, for the sake of revealing the temporal and spatial features of land-use change and laying the foundation for the study of regional scale land-use changes. Moreover, an integrated study, including studies of spatial pattern and temporal process of land-use change, is carried out in this paper, which is an interesting try on the comparative studies of spatial pattern on change process and the change process of spatial pattern of land-use change.

Application of rough set-based analysis to extract spatial relationship indicator rules: An example of land use in Pearl River Delta

Spatial relations, reflecting the complex association between geographical phenomena and environments, are very important in the solution of geographical issues. Different spatial relations can be expressed by indicators which are useful for the analysis of geographical issues. Urbanization, an important geographical issue, is considered in this paper. The spatial relationship indicators concerning urbanization are expressed with a decision table. Thereafter, the spatial relationship indicator rules are extracted based on the application of rough set theory. The extraction process of spatial relationship indicator rules is illustrated with data from the urban and rural areas of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, located in the Pearl River Delta. Land use vector data of 1995 and 2000 are used. The extracted spatial relationship indicator rules of 1995 are used to identify the urban and rural areas in Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Macao. The identification accuracy is approximately 96.3%. Similar procedures are used to extract the spatial relationship indicator rules of 2000 for the urban and rural areas in Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Macao. An identification accuracy of about 83.6% is obtained.

EAWM-related air-sea-land interaction and the Asian summer monsoon circulation

Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EAWM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EAWM activity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EAWM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EAWM-related air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EAWM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EAWM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EAWM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The active role of the EAWM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent seasons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displacement of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EAWM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EAWM years remains uncertain.

淤泥质潮滩地貌的遥感研究－以苏北辐射沙洲海岸为例

本文以具有典型特征的苏北淤泥质潮滩海岸作为研究区，利用1975-2003年间14景覆盖该地区的Landsat和SPOT卫星影像作为主要数据源，结合地面调查和验证工作，在遥感影像处理和地理信息系统分析技术的支持下，对区内潮滩、岸线、水边线和盐沼植被等进行遥感解译，分析苏北辐射沙脊群和沿岸地貌的空间分布特征和动态演变趋势。研究结果表明：苏北辐射沙脊群海域的潮汐水位过程的不同步现象普遍存在，限制了常规遥感数据在苏北潮滩地貌研究中的适用范围和解译精度；在人工判别的辅助下，多光谱遥感的非监督分类方法可以有效解译淤泥质潮滩的水边线；利用修改型土壤调整植被指数（MSAVI）可以较好地提取潮滩上的盐沼植被信息；苏北沿岸潮滩的快速淤长促进了盐沼植被带向海侧快速扩展，近年来持续的潮滩围垦工程则不断从陆侧侵占盐沼植被带，使盐沼植被带宽度减小乃至消失；在大规模人类活动和自然条件的共同影响下，苏北辐射沙脊群海岸的岸线发育趋于平直化，无序的潮滩围垦项目使得可垦滩地资源被过度消耗；1975～2002年间，研究区北部和南部沿岸的高潮滩整体上处于淤长状态，中部沿岸潮滩和离岸沙洲高潮滩则被大面积侵蚀；1999年以来，研究区内低潮滩部位开始形成有序排列的滩面地物，并表现出逐年大面积蔓延的趋势，可能是滩涂紫菜养殖区扩展的结果。

The effect of land management on plant community composition, species diversity, and productivity of alpine Kobersia steppe meadow

Grassland degradation is widespread and severe on the Tibet Plateau. To explore management approaches for sustainable development of degraded and restored ecosystems, we studied the effect of land degradation on species composition, species diversity, and vegetation productivity, and examined the relative influence of various rehabilitation practices (two seeding treatments and a non-seeded natural recovery treatment) on community structure and vegetation productivity in early secondary succession. The results showed: (1) All sedge and grass species of the natural steppe meadow had disappeared from the severely degraded land. The above-ground and root biomass of severely degraded land were only 38 and 14.7%, respectively, of those of the control. So, the original ecosystem has been dramatically altered by land degradation on alpine steppe meadow. (2) Seeding measures may promote above-ground biomass, particularly grass biomass, and ground cover. Except for the grasses seeded, however, other grass and sedge species did not occur after seeding treatments in the sixth year of seeding. Establishment of grasses during natural recovery treatment progressed slowly compared with during seeding treatments. Many annual forbs invaded and established during the 6 years of natural recovery. In addition, there was greater diversity after natural recovery treatment than after seeding treatments. (3) The above-ground biomass after seeding treatment and natural recovery treatment were 114 and 55%, respectively, of that of the control. No significant differences in root biomass occurred among the natural recovery and seeded treatments. Root biomass after rehabilitation treatment was 23-31% that of the control.