Modeling of cyanobacterial blooms in hypereutrophic Lake Dianchi, China

Compared with other approaches for modeling and predicting, artificial neural networks are more effective in describing complex and non-linear systems. The occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms has been a continuous and serious problem over the past decades in hypereutrophic Lake Dianchi. Yet, the main factor(s) initiating these blooms remain(s) unclear. During 2001-2002 at 40 sampling sites in Lake Dianchi, physicochemical parameters possibly relating to the blooms were measured. Parameters directly or indirectly relating to the cyanobacterial blooms were used as driving factors in a back-propagation network to model the concentration of chlorophyll a. According to sensitivity analysis, chemical oxygen demand was identified as a very significant environmental factor for algal growth in Lake Dianchi.

Effects of multistage coupling and disk flexibility on mistuned bladed disk dynamics

The effects ofdisk flexibility and multistage coupling on the dynamics of bladed disks with and without blade mistuning are investigated. Both free and forced responses are examined using finite element representations of example single and two-stage rotor models. The reported work demonstrates the importance of proper treatment of interstage (stage-to-stage) boundaries in order to yield adequate capture of disk-blade modal interaction in eigenfrequency veering regions. The modified disk-blade modal interactions resulting from interstage-coupling-induced changes in disk flexibility are found to have a significant impact on (a) tuned responses due to excitations passing through eigenfrequency veering regions, and (b) a design's sensitivity to blade mistuning. Hence, the findings in this paper suggest that multistage analyses may be required when excitations are expected to fall in or near eigenfrequency veering regions or when the sensitivity to blade mistuning is to be accounted for Conversely, the observed sensitivity to disk flexibility also indicates that the severity of unfavorable structural interblade coupling may be reduced significantly by redesigning the disk(s) and stage-to-stage connectivity. The relatively drastic effects of such modifications illustrated in this work indicate that the design modifications required to alleviate veering-related response problems may be less comprehensive than what might have been expected.

A study on the economic efficiency of hydrogen production from biomass residues in China

As part of Pilot Project of KIP of CAS, a feasibility study of hydrogen production system using biomass residues is conducted. This study is based on a process of oxygen-rich air gasification of biomass in a downdraft gasifier plus CO-shift. The capacity of this system is 6.4 t biomass/d. Applying this system, it is expected that an annual production of 480 billion N m(3) H-2 will be generated for domestic supply in China. The capital cost of the plant used in this study is 1328$/(N m(3)/h) H-2 out, and product supply cost is 0.15$/N m(3) H-2. The cost sensitivity analysis on this system tells that electricity and catalyst cost are the two most important factors to influence hydrogen production cost.

Long period two-dimensional gratings for 8-12 mu m quantum well infrared photodetectors

By considering all possible high order diffracted waves, the authors investigate the spectral response of two-dimensional gratings for quantum well infrared photodetectors (QWIPs). A new method is proposed that using long period gratings may improve grating quality and reduce the resulting cross talk in grating-coupled QWIPs. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the influence of variation of the grating constant on the coupling efficiency is less sensitive for the long period gratings than for the short ones. A large coupling efficiency has been demonstrated for long period gratings. The calculated wide grating response spectra are in good agreement with the experiment result. (C) 1996 American Institute of Physics.

Extinction of lean near-limit methane/air flames at elevated pressures under normal- and reduced-gravity

perimentally at evaluated pressures and under normal- and micro-gravity conditions utilizing the 3.5 s drop tower of the National Microgravity Laboratory of China. The results showed that under micro-gravity conditions the natural convection is minimized and the flames become more planar and symmetric compared to normal gravity. In both normal- and micro-gravity experiments and for a given strain rate and fuel concentration, the flame luminosity was found to enhance as the pressure increases. On the other hand, at a given pressure, the flame luminosity was determined to weaken as the strain rate decreases. At a given strain rate, the fuel concentration at extinction was found to vary non-monotonically with pressure, namely it first increases and subsequently decreases with pressure. The limit fuel concentration peaks around 3 and 4 atm under normal- and micro-gravity, respectively. The extinction limits measured at micro-gravity were in good agreement with predictions obtained through detailed numerical simulations but they are notably lower compared to the data obtained under normal gravity. The simulations confirmed the non-monotonic variation of flammability limits with pressure, in agreement with previous studies. Sensitivity analysis showed that for pressures between one and 5 atm, the near-limit flame response is dominated by the competition between the main branching, H + O2 ? OH + O, and the pressure sensitive termination, H+O2+M? HO2 + M, reaction. However, for pressures greater than 5 atm it was determined that the HO2 kinetics result in further chain branching in a way that is analogous to the third explosion limit of H2/O2 mixtures. 2010 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

一个改进的随机动力学水平衡模型及其应用研究Ⅱ.应用

本文用黄土高原长武农业生态试验站的冬小麦长期定位试验资料对改进的随机动力学水平衡模型进行了准确性检验 .从模型对参数反映的敏感性分析和模型计算值与数值模型WAVES的比较 ,以及模型对黄土区旱作高生产力的水分环境效应的评价结果 ,均证明改进的随机动力学水平衡模型能比较准确地预测一定生产力水平、特定生态系统平衡体系水均衡要素的定量分配和土壤含水量的动态变化 .

降雨条件下碎石土滑坡稳定性研究

Debris Landslide is one of the types of landslides with the widest distribution, largest quantity, and the closest relationship with engineering construction. It is also one of the most important types of landslides that can cause disaster. This kind of landslide often occurs in the loose slopes which are made up of loose congeries formed by earth filling, residual soil, slope wash, dilapidation, landslide or full weathered material of hard rock. Rainfall is always the chief inducing factor of debris Landslide. Therefore, to research stability of debris Landslide during rainfall not only has important theoretical significance for understanding developing law and deformation and failure mechanism of debris landslide, but also has important practical significance for investigating, appraising, forecasting, preventing and controlling debris landslides. This thesis systematically summarized the relationships between rainfall and landslide, the method to survey water table in the landslides, the deformation and failure mechanism of debris landslide, and the progress in the stability analysis of landslides based on the analyses of data collected widely at home and abroad. The problems in the study of the stability of debris landslide during rainfall was reviewed and discussed. Due to the complicated geological conditions and the random rainfall conditions, the research on the landslides' stability must be based on engineering geological qualitative analysis. Through the collection of the data about the Panxi region and the Three Gorges Reservoir region, the author systematically summarized the engineering geological conditions, hydro-geological condition, distribution characteristics of stress field in the slope, physical and mechanical properties and hydro-mechanical properties of debris. In the viewpoint of dynamics of soil water and hydromechanics, physical process of rainfall to supply groundwater of debris landslides can be divided into two phases, i.e. non-saturated steady infiltrating phase and saturated unsteady supplying phase. The former can be described by mathematical model of surface water infiltration while the latter can be described by equivalent continuous medium model of groundwater seepage. With regard to specific hydrological geology system, we can obtain the dynamic variation law of water content, water table, landslide stability of rock and soil mass, along with quantity and duration of rainfall after the boundary condition on hydrological geology has been ascertained. This is a new way to study the response law of groundwater in the landslides during rainfall. After wet face of rock and soil mass connects with ground water table, the raising of water table will occur due to the supply of rainfall. Then interaction between ground water and rock and soil mass will occur, such as the action of physics, water, chemistry and mechanics, which caused the decrease of shearing strength of sliding zone. According to the action of groundwater on rock and soil mass, a concise mechanical model of debris landslide’s deformation was established during rainfall. The static equilibrium condition of landslide mass system was achieved according to the concise mechanical model, and then the typical deformation and failure process and failure mode of debris landslide during rainfall were discussed. In this thesis, the former limiting equilibrium slice method was modified and improved based on shearing strength theory of , a stability analysis program of debris landslide was established and developed taking account of the saturated-unsaturated seepage, by introducing the shearing strength theory of unsaturated soil mass made by (1978). The program has reasonable data storage and simple interface and is easy to operate, and can be perfectly used to carry out sensitivity analysis of influencing factors of landslides' stability, integrated with the program of Office Excel. The design of drainage engineering are always bases on empirical methods and is short of effective quantitative analysis and appraise, therefore, the conception of critical water table of debris landslide was put forward. For debris landslides with different kinds of slide face in the engineering practice, a program to search the critical water table of debris landslide was developed based on native groundwater table. And groundwater table in the slope should be declined below the critical water table in the drainage works, so the program can be directly used to guide drainage works in the debris landslide. Taking the slope deformation body in the back of former factory building of Muli Shawan hydroelectric power station as an example, a systematic and detailed research on debris landslides' stability during rainfall was researched systematically, the relationship among quantity of rainfall, water table and stability of slope was established, the debris landslides' stability in process of rainfall from dynamic viewpoint was analyzed and researched.

松辽盆地南部腰英台区块低渗透储层整体压裂改造技术研究

The Yaoyingtai Block is located within the northeastern Changling Depression of southern Songliao Basin, where the reservoir sandstones are petrophysically characterized by very low permeability, which results in the low success probability of artificial fracturing, and the low oil yield by water injection in the course of oil production. In order to improve the situations as stated above, this research aims to work out an integral fracturing technology and strategy applicable to the low permeable reservoirs in Yaoyingtai Block. Under the guidance of geological theory, reservoir engineering and technology, the subsurface occurrences of natural and hydraulic fractures in the reservoirs are expected to be delineated, and appropriate fracturing fluids and proppants are to be optimized, based on the data of drilling, well logging, laboratory and field experiments, and geological data. These approaches lay the basis of the integral fracturing technology suitable for the low permeable reservoir in the study area. Based on core sample test, in-situ stress analysis of well logging, and forward and inversion stress field modeling, as well as fluid dynamic analysis, the maximum in-situ stress field is unraveled to be extended nearly along the E-W direction (clustering along N85-135°E) as is demonstrated by the E-W trending tensional fractures. Hydraulic fractures are distributed approximately along the E-W direction as well. Faulting activities could have exerted obvious influences on the distribution of fractures, which were preferentially developed along fault zones. Based on reservoir sensitivity analysis, integrated with studies on rock mechanics, in-situ stress, natural fracture distribution and production in injection-production pilot area, the influences of primary fractures on fracturing operation are analyzed, and a diagnostic technology for primary fractures during depressurization is accordingly developed. An appropriate fracturing fluid (hydroxypropyl guar gum) and a proppant (Yixing ceramsite, with a moderate-density, 0.45-0.9mm in size) applicable to Qingshankou Formation reservoir are worked out through extensive optimization analysis. The fracturing fluid can decrease the damage to the oil reservoir, and the friction in fracturing operation, improving the effect of fracturing operation. Some problems, such as sand-out at early stage and low success rate of fracturing operations, have been effectively solved, through pre-fracturing formation evaluation, “suspension plug” fracturing, real-time monitoring and limited-flow fracturing. Through analysis of fracture-bearing tight reservoir with variable densities and dynamic analysis of influences of well patterns on fracturing by using numerical simulation, a fracturing operation scheme for the Qingshankou Formation reservoir is proposed here as being better to compress the short factures, rather than to compress the long fractures during hydraulic fracturing. It is suggested to adopt the 450m×150m inverted 9-spot well pattern in a diamond shape with wells placed parallel to fractures and a half fracture length of 60-75m.

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

地理信息系统支持下的滑坡灾害空间分析预测-以云南小江流域为例

As a typical geological and environmental hazard, landslide has been causing more and more property and life losses. However, to predict its accurate occurring time is very difficult or even impossible due to landslide's complex nature. It has been realized that it is not a good solution to spend a lot of money to treat with and prevent landslide. The research trend is to study landslide's spatial distribution and predict its potential hazard zone under certain region and certain conditions. GIS(Geographical Information System) is a power tools for data management, spatial analysis based on reasonable spatial models and visualization. It is new and potential study field to do landslide hazard analysis and prediction based on GIS. This paper systematically studies the theory and methods for GIS based landslide hazard analysis. On the basis of project "Mountainous hazard study-landslide and debris flows" supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences and the former study foundation, this paper carries out model research, application, verification and model result analysis. The occurrence of landslide has its triggering factors. Landslide has its special landform and topographical feature which can be identify from field work and remote sensing image (aerial photo). Historical record of landslide is the key to predict the future behaviors of landslide. These are bases for landslide spatial data base construction. Based on the plenty of literatures reviews, the concept framework of model integration and unit combinations is formed. Two types of model, CF multiple regression model and landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model are bought forward. CF multiple regression model comes form statistics and possibility theory based on data. Data itself contains the uncertainty and random nature of landslide hazard, so it can be seen as a good method to study and understand landslide's complex feature and mechanics. CF multiple regression model integrates CF (landslide Certainty Factor) and multiple regression prediction model. CF can easily treat with the problems of data quantifying and combination of heteroecious data types. The combination of CF can assist to determine key landslide triggering factors which are then inputted into multiple regression model. CF regression model can provide better prediction results than traditional model. The process of landslide can be described and modeled by suitable physical and mechanical model. Landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model is such a physical deterministic model that can be easily used for landslide hazard analysis and prediction. It couples the general limit equilibrium method and hydrological distribution model based on DEM, and can be used as a effective approach to predict the occurrence of landslide under different precipitation conditions as well as landslide mechanics research. It can not only explain pre-existed landslides, but also predict the potential hazard region with environmental conditions changes. Finally, this paper carries out landslide hazard analysis and prediction in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed, including landslide hazard sensitivity analysis and regression prediction model based on selected key factors, determining the relationship between landslide occurrence possibility and triggering factors. The result of landslide hazard analysis and prediction by coupled model is discussed in details. On the basis of model verification and validation, the modeling results are showing high accuracy and good applying potential in landslide research.

青藏高原东部电性结构特征及地球动力学意义

As the largest and highest plateau on the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has been a key location for understanding the processes of mountain building and plateau formation during India-Asia continent-continent collision. As the front-end of the collision, the geological structure of eastern Tibetan Plateau is very complex. It is ideal as a natural laboratory for investigating the formation and evolution of the Tibetan Plateau. Institute of Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) carried out MT survey from XiaZayii to Qingshuihe in the east part of the plateau in 1998. After error analysis and distortion analysis, the Non-linear Conjugate Gradient inversion(NLCG), Rapid Relaxation Inversin (RRI) and 2D OCCAM Inversion algorithms were used to invert the data. The three models obtained from 3 algorithms provided similar electrical structure and the NLCG model fit the observed data better than the other two models. According to the analysis of skin depth, the exploration depth of MT in Tibet is much more shallow than in stable continent. For example, the Schmucker depth at period 100s is less than 50km in Tibet, but more than 100km in Canadian Shield. There is a high conductivity layer at the depth of several kilometers beneath middle Qiangtang terrane, and almost 30 kilometers beneath northern Qiangtang terrane. The sensitivity analysis of the data predicates that the depth and resistivity of the crustal high conductivity layer are reliable. The MT results provide a high conductivity layer at 20~40km depth, where the seismic data show a low velocity zone. The experiments show that the rock will dehydrate and partially melt in the relative temperature and pressure. Fluids originated from dehydration and partial melting will seriously change rheological characteristics of rock. Therefore, This layer with low velocity and high conductivity layer in the crust is a weak layer. There is a low velocity path at the depth of 90-110 km beneath southeastern Tibetan Plateau and adjacent areas from seismology results. The analysis on the temperature and rheological property of the lithosphere show that the low velocity path is also weak. GPS measurements and the numerical simulation of the crust-mantle deformation show that the movement rate is different for different terranes. The regional strike derived from decomposition analysis for different frequency band and seismic anisotropy indicate that the crust and upper mantle move separately instead of as a whole. There are material flow in the eastern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, the faults, the crustal and upper mantle weak layers are three different boundaries for relatively movement. Those results support the "two layer wedge plates" geodynamic model on Tibetan formation and evolution.