河道砂油藏产能预测系统研究

Productivity prediction is a serious factor to oil reservoir management and working out economic plans so that it is paid great attention to all the time. Gudao Oil Field, which has been yielding more than 100 million tons of crude oil accumulatively since it was put into developing in 1970's as a complete set of oil field, now entering double extra high water-bearing period after productivity construction, stable production and depletion stage. It's main layer series of development is thought to be type of channel sand reservoir in east China. Form channel sand reservoir in upper Guantao Group of Shengli Oil Field, there are several large oil fields such as Gudao, Gudong and Chengdao etc. with almost one-third reserves of whole Shengli Oil Field. It is considered the common characteristics in this area would be that the layer is less developed, the sand distribution is sporadic, the connectivity is weak, the heterogeneity is strong in plane, the oil layer is unconsolidated with big porosity, high permeability and serious sanding, and the oil is heavy. Because of the restricted factors to productivity of this kind of reservoir, it is very significant to study the productivity prediction this kind of reservoir. By selecting the upstream fluvial reservoir in Guantao Group of Neogene system as researching object, the author studied the forecasting technology with heterogeneous reservoir. Firstly, the author constructed the 3D subtle geological model quantificationally through researching exploitation geology in the way of combination of dynamic and static methods. Secondly, by the aid of dynamic material obtained while producing, the author analyzed the oil distribution law and influencing factors, then finished dynamic oil reservoir description on the basis of static oil reservoir description. Thirdly, via comparing and analyzing all the forecasting methods of productivity existed, the author developed a set of method to forecast productivity of single well and oil field which fit to channel sand reservoir. At last, under the support of ORACLE database, with the advanced computer technology, the author programmed the software called 'Channel Sand Reservoir Prediction System'. Up to now, this system has been putting into use in Gudao Oil Field and very successful.

滑坡和泥石流致灾条件叠合技术及风险分析-以川藏公路然乌至鲁朗段为例

As one part of national road No. 318, Sichuan-Tibet (Chengdu-Lasha) Highway is one of traffic life lines connecting Tibet municipality to the inland, which is very important to the economic development of Tibet. In addition, it is still an important national defence routeway, with extremely important strategic position on maintaining the stability and solidarity of Tibet municipality and consolidating national defence. Particular geological condition, terrain and landform condition and hydrometeorological condition induce large-scale debris flows and landslides (including landslips) and the like geological hazards frequently occur along the highway. High frequency geological hazards not only result in high casualties and a great property loss, but also block traffic at every turn, obstructing the Sichuan-Tibet highway seriously. On the basis of considerable engineering geological investigation and analysis to the relative studying achievements of predecessors, it is found that one of the dominating reason incurring landslides or debris flows again and again in a place is that abundant loose materials are accumulated in valleys and slopes along the highway. Taking landslides' and debris flows along Ranwu-Lulang section of Sichuan-Tibet highway as studying objects, the sources and cause of formation of loose accumulation materials in the studying area are analyzed in detail, the major hazard-inducing conditions, hazard, dynamic risk, prediction of susceptibility degree of landslides and debris flows, and the relations between landslides and debris flows and various hazard-inducing conditions are systematically researched in this paper. All of these will provide scientific foundation for the future highway renovating and reducing and preventing geological hazards. For the purpose of quantitatively analyzing landslide and debris flow hazards, the conception of entropy and information entropy are extended, the conception of geological hazard entropy is brought forward, and relevant mathematics model is built. Additionally, a new approach for the dynamic risk analysis of landslide and debris flow is put forward based on the dynamic characteristics of the hazard of hazard-inducings and the vulnerability of hazard-bearings. The formation of landslide and debris flow is a non-linear process, which is synthetically affected by various factors, and whose formation mechanics is extremely complex. Aiming at this question, a muli-factors classifying and overlapping technique is brought forward on the basis of engineering geomechanics meta-synthesis (EGMS) thought and approach, and relevant mathematics model is also built to predict the susceptibility degree of landslide or debris flow. The example analysis result proves the validity of this thought and approach. To studying the problem that whether the formation and space distribution of landslides and debris flows are controlled by one or several hazard-inducing conditions, the theme graphics of landslides and debris flows hazard and various hazard-inducing conditions are overlapped to determine the relationship between hazard and hazard-inducing conditions. On this basis, the semi-quantitative engineering zonation of the studying area is carried out. In addition, the overlapping analysis method of the hazard-indue ing conditions of landslides and debris flows based on "digital graphics system" is advanced to orderly organize and effectively manage the spatial and attributive data of hazard and hazard-inducing conditions theme graphics, and to realize the effectively combination of graphics, images and figures.