The Newest Developments Of Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr)

The Load Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It is inspiring that its predictions using LURR have been improving. Since 2004 we have made a major breakthrough in intermediate-term earthquake forecasting of the strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using LURR and successfully predicted the Pakistan earthquake with magnitude M 7.6 on October 8, 2005. The causes for improving the prediction in terms of LURR have been discussed in the present paper.

Avalanche behavior and statistical properties in a microcrack coalescence process

Fracture owing to the coalescence of numerous microcracks can be described by a simple statistical model, where a coalescence event stochastically occurs as the number density of nucleated microcracks increases. Both numerical simulation and statistical analysis reveal that a microcrack coalescence process may display avalanche behavior and that the final failure is catastrophic. The cumulative distribution of coalescence events in the vicinity of critical fracture follows a power law and the fracture profile has self-affine fractal characteristic. Some macromechanical quantities may be traced back and extracted from the mesoscopic process based on the statistical analysis of coalescence events.

Structures on sliding base subject to horizontal and vertical motions

In this paper particular investigation is directed towards the combined effects of horizontal and vertical motions of real earthquakes to structures resting on sliding base. A simplified method is presented to treat the nonlinear effects of time dependent frictional force of the sliding base as a function of the vertical reaction produced by the foundation. As an example, the El Centro 1940 earthquake record is used on a structural model to show the structural responses due to a sliding base with different frictional and stiffness characteristics. The study shows that vertical ground motion does affect both the superstructure response and the base sliding displacement. Nevertheless, the sliding base isolator is shown to be effective for the reduction of seismic response of a superstructure.

利用损伤力学模型研究地震前兆现象

在地震等灾变破坏发生之前会出现一定的前兆现象，本文通过损伤力学模型，运用数值计算的方法对此进行了研究从计算结果可以看到，在灾变破坏发生之前，由损伤所释放的能量(能量释放)和加卸栽响应比值Y都发生了异常明显的变化，这表明二者具有相同的物理机制，在一定程度上都能够较为定量地刻画出系统的损伤演化过程如果把二者相结合则可能对地震等灾变破坏做出更为准确的预测，本文结合实际震例对此也进行了一定的研究．

The Displacement and Strain Field of Three-Dimensional Rheologic Model of Earthquake Preparation

Based on the three-dimensional elastic inclusion model proposed by Dobrovolskii, we developed a rheological inclusion model to study earthquake preparation processes. By using the Corresponding Principle in the theory of rheologic mechanics, we derived the analytic expressions of viscoelastic displacement U(r, t) , V(r, t) and W(r, t), normal strains epsilon(xx) (r, t), epsilon(yy) (r, t) and epsilon(zz) (r, t) and the bulk strain theta (r, t) at an arbitrary point (x, y, z) in three directions of X axis, Y axis and Z axis produced by a three-dimensional inclusion in the semi-infinite rheologic medium defined by the standard linear rheologic model. Subsequent to the spatial-temporal variation of bulk strain being computed on the ground produced by such a spherical rheologic inclusion, interesting results are obtained, suggesting that the bulk strain produced by a hard inclusion change with time according to three stages (alpha, beta, gamma) with different characteristics, similar to that of geodetic deformation observations, but different with the results of a soft inclusion. These theoretical results can be used to explain the characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution, patterns, quadrant-distribution of earthquake precursors, the changeability, spontaneity and complexity of short-term and imminent-term precursors. It offers a theoretical base to build physical models for earthquake precursors and to predict the earthquakes.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of LURR and Its Implication for the Tendency of Earthquake Occurrence in Southern California

Based on the theory of LURR and its recent development, spatial and temporal variation of Y/Y-c (value of LURR/critical value of LURR) in the Southern California region during the period from 1980 through March, 2001 was studied. According to the previous study on the fault system and stress field in Southern California, we zoned the Southern California region into 11 parts in each of which the stress field is almost uniform. With the time window of one year, time moving step of three months, space window of a circle region with a radius of 100 km and space moving step of 0.25 degree in latitude and longitude direction, the evolution of Y/Y-c were snapshot. The scanning results show that obvious Y/Y-c anomalies occurred before 5/6 of strong earthquakes considered with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater. The critical regions of Y/Y-c are near the epicenters of the strong earthquakes and the Y/Y-c anomalies occur months to years prior to the earthquakes. The tendency of earthquake occurrence in the California region is briefly discussed on the basis of the examination of Y/Y-c.

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China

In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China

In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sedimentation rates and provenance analysis in the Southwestern Okinawa Trough since the mid-Holocene

As a high-sedimentation rate depocenter along the path of the Kuroshio Current, the southwesternmost part of the Okinawa Trough is a key area to understand the Kuroshio history and sediments transportation. A 34.17-m-long sediment core was obtained by the advanced piston corer of Marco Polo/IMAGES XII MARION DUFRESNE during the May 2005 from the Southern Okinawa Trough at site MD05-2908. The recovered sediments were analyzed by AMS C-14 dating, coarse size fraction (> 63 mu m) extraction and moisture content determination in order to study its sedimentation flux and provenance. The depth-age relationship of core MD05-2908 was well constrained by 17 C-14 dating points. The sediments span across the mid-Holocene (6.8 ka B.P.) and have remarkablely high sedimentation rates between 1.8 and 21-2 m/ka, which is well consistent with the modern observations from sediment traps. We identified five 70-200 a periods of abnormally rapid sedimentation events at 6790-6600 a B.P., 5690-5600 a B.P., 4820-4720 a B.P., 1090-880 a B.P., and 260-190 a B.P., during which the highest sedimentation rate is up to 21-2 m/ka. In general, the lithology of the sediments were dominated by silt and clay, associated with less than 5% coarse size fraction (a parts per thousand << 63 mu m). As the most significant sediment source, the Lanyang River in northeastern Taiwan annually deliver about 10Mt materials to the coastal and offshore region of northeast Taiwan, a portion of which could be carried northward by currents toward the study area. Therefore, we concluded that the 5 abnormally rapid sedimentation events may be related to intensified rainfall in Taiwan and thus increased materials to our study area at that time. However, a few extreme-rapid sedimentation events cannot be explained by normal river runoff alone. The large earthquakes or typhoons induced hyperpycnal discharge of fluvial sediment to the ocean may also act as a potential source supply to the Okinawa Trough.

Talc-bearing serpentinized peridotites from the southern Mariana forearc: implications for aseismic character within subduction zones

The serpentinized peridotites overlying the subducted zones in the Izu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) arc system have been interpret as the cause of the low-velocity layer identified beneath the IBM froearc, in turn few earthquakes occurred along the plate boundary. Chrysotile, which is a low temperature and highly hydrated phase of serpentine with low frictional strength, has been suggested as the low velocity material in the serpentinized peridotites, besides, brucite is inferred to be likely conducive to stable sliding. However, such idea encounters challenging in our serpentinized peridotites from the southern Mariana forearc, which absent both the above minerals. The presence of talc, which characterized by its weak, low-friction and inherently stable sliding behavior, provides new clue. Here we report the occurrence of talc in serpentinized peridotites collected from the landward trench slope of the southern Mariana forearc. We infer that talc is mainly forming as a result of the reaction of serpentine minerals with silica-saturated fluids released from the subducting slab, and talc also occurs as talc veins sometimes. Due to its unique physical properties, talc may therefore play a significant role in aseismic slip in the IBM subduction zone.

A comprehensive investigation of an offshore active fault in the Western Sagami Bay, central Japan

Offshore active faults, especially those in the deep sea, are very difficult to study because of the water and sedimentary cover. To characterize the nature and geometry of offshore active faults, a combination of methods must be employed. Generally, seismic profiling is used to map these faults, but often only fault-related folds rather than fracture planes are imaged. Multi-beam swath bathymetry provides information on the structure and growth history of a fault because movements of an active fault are reflected in the bottom morphology. Submersible and deep-tow surveys allow direct observations of deformations on the seafloor (including fracture zones and microstructures). In the deep sea, linearly aligned cold seep communities provide indirect evidence for active faults and the spatial migration of their activities. The Western Sagami Bay fault (WSBF) in the western Sagami Bay off central Japan is an active fault that has been studied in detail using the above methods. The bottom morphology, fractured breccias directly observed and photographed, seismic profiles, as well as distribution and migration of cold seep communities provide evidence for the nature and geometry of the fault. Focal mechanism solutions of selected earthquakes in the western Sagami Bay during the period from 1900 to 1995 show that the maximum compression trends NW-SE and the minimum stress axis strikes NE-SW, a stress pattern indicating a left-lateral strike-slip fault.

Pg震相走时的各向异性影响及各向异性结构成像

As the first arrival of seismic phase in deep seismic sounding, Pg is the important data for studying the attributes of the sedimentary layers and the shape of crystalline basement because of its high intensity and reliable detection. Conventionally, the sedimentary cover is expressed as isotropic, linear increasing model in the interpretation of Pg event. Actually, the sedimentary medium should be anisotropic as preferred cracks or fractures and thin layers are common features in the upper crust, so the interpretation of Pg event needs to be taken account of seismic velocity anisotropy. Traveltime calculation is the base of data processing and interpretation. Here, we only study the type of elliptical anisotropy for the poor quality and insufficiency of DSS data. In this thesis, we first investigate the meaning of elliptical anisotropy in the study of crustal structure and attribute, then derive Pg event’s traveltime-offset relationship by assuming a linear increasing velocity model with elliptical anisotropy and present the invert scheme from Pg traveltime-offset dataset to seismic velocity and its anisotropy of shallow crustal structure. We compare the Pg traveltime calculated by our analytic formula with numerical calculating method to test the accuracy. To get the lateral variation of elliptical anisotropy along the profiling, a tomography inversion method with the derived formula is presented, where the profile is divided into rectangles. Anisotropic imaging of crustal structure and attribute is efficient method for crust study. The imaging result can help us interprete the seismic data and discover the attribute of the rock to analyze the interaction between layers. Traveltime calculation is the base of image. Base on the ray tracing equations, the paper present a realization of three dimension of layer model with arbitrary anisotropic type and an example of Pg traveltime calculation in arbitrary anisotropic type is presented. The traveltime calculation method is complex and it only adapts to nonlinear inversion. Perturbation method of travel-time calculation in anisotropy is the linearization approach. It establishes the direct relation between seismic parameters and travetime and it is fit for inversion in anisotropic structural imaging. The thesis presents a P-wave imaging method of layer media for TTI. Southeastern China is an important part of the tectonic framework concerning the continental margin of eastern China and is commonly assumed to comprise the Yangtze block and the Cathaysia block, the two major tectonic units in the region. It’s a typical geological and geophysical zone. In this part, we fit the traveltime of Pg phase by the raytracing numerical method. But the method is not suitable here because the inefficiency of numerical method and the method itself. By the analytic method, we fit the Pg and Sg and get the lateral variation of elliptical anisotropy and then discuss its implication. The northeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibetan plateau is typical because it is the joint area of Eurasian plate and Indian plate and many strong earthquakes have occurred there in recent years．We use the Pg data to get elliptical anisotropic variation and discuss the possible meaning.

岩石中地震波速度和衰减的应力变化响应研究

Stress change is one of key factors in seismic nucleating and triggering; therefore for understanding and forecasting earthquakes, it is necessary to research on stress status and its changes in rocks. Propagating in underground structures, wave velocity and attenuation contain information on stress changes of the Earth’s interior. For a better understanding of relationship between seismic data and stress changes, modeling and ultrasonic test supply significant references. In this article, acoustoelastic theory is introduced to explain nonlinear elastic characteristics of rocks. Based on the acoustoelastic theory, a solid-fluid coupled model is given to calculate velocity under different stress for porous and liquid fulfilled rocks. Except for the stress-velocity relationship, effects of pore pressure induced stress changes on ultrasonic coda attenuation are also studied. Intrinsic attenuation quality factors are calculated for a comparison purpose. Finally, the relationship between elastic constants and stress changes is thoroughly investigated, a mixture model from two phases of Hooke media is introduced to explain the differences between dynamic and static moduli, a relation among wave length, wave velocities and elastic moduli considering dimension of microstructure, dimension and state of surface between phases is presented. The most important aspect of this work is exploring and establishing relationships between the seismic properties of rocks and changes of their stress conditions, which will have its application in earthquake forecast and seismic hazard.

华北及周边地区层析成像研究

Our study deals with the high resolution body wave tomography in North china and adjacent areas(30°N-43°N，100°E-130°E), where earthquakes occurred many times in history and has a very complicated geological structure. 6870 events recorded at 273 digital seismic stations from CDSN during 1996－2002 and stations settled by Seislab of IGCAS in Bohai Bay area, including 1382 local earthquakes and 5488 teleseismic earthquakes are used in this study. In the data we used, the average number of received stations is greater than 5, the error of picking up direct arrival time is 0.1－0.5s. Before the inversion, we use Checkerboard method to confirm the reliability of result of Local events; use Restoring Resolution Test to confirm the reliability of result of teleseismic events. We also analyzed the effect of different parameters in the inversion. Based the analysis above, the model used in this paper is divided into small blocks with a dimension of 0.33°in the latitude and longitude directions and 5km、15km、30km in depth, and initial velocity model. Using pseudobending method to calculate the ray traveling path, LSQR algorithm to inverse, finally, we got the body velocity images below 25km and above 480km in this area using Joint- inversion with local events and teleseismic events. We made the conclusion at last: (1)at top zone of the south of Sichuan Basin , there exits low velocity anomalies, below 40km is the high velocity zone extend to 300km; (2) Above the 40km of Ordos block exits low velocity zone, while below 40km until 240km, the high velocity anomalies are interlaced by low velocity anomalies. Below 300km, the anomalies are unclear any more; (3) On the whole, the velocity structure below 400km on the mantle transition zone of Eastern China area shows its changes from low velocity to high velocity.