Deformation Monitoring and Forecasting Model Study Based on Grey System Theory

The grey system theory studies the uncertainty of small sample size problems. This paper using grey system theory in the deformation monitoring field, based on analysis of present grey forecast models, developed the spatial multi-point model. By using residual modification, the spatial multi-point residual model eras developed in further study. Then, combined with the sedimentation data of Xiaolangdi Multipurpose Dam, the results are compared and analyzed, the conclusion has been made and the advantages of the residual spatial multi-point model has been proved.

Petroleum System in Deepwater Basins of the Northern South China Sea

The northern South China Sea margin has experienced a rifting stage and a post-rifting stage during the Cenozoic. In the rifting stage, the margin received lacustrine and shallow marine facies sediments. In the post-rifting thermal subsidence, the margin accumulated shallow marine facies and hemipelagic deposits, and the deepwater basins formed. Petroleum systems of deepwater setting have been imaged from seismic data and drill wells. Two kinds of source rocks including Paleogene lacustrine black shale and Oligocene-Early Miocene mudstone were developed in the deepwater basin of the South China Sea. The deepwater reservoirs are characterized by the deep sea channel rill, mass flow complexes and drowned reef carbonate platform. Profitable capping rocks on the top are mudstones with huge thickness in the post-rifting stage. Meanwhile, the faults developed during the rifting stage provide a migration path favourable for the formation of reservoirs. The analysis of seismic and drilling data suggests that the joint structural and stratigraphic traps could form giant hydrocarbon fields and hydrocarbon reservoirs including syn-rifting graben subaqueous delta, deepwater submarine fan sandstone and reef carbonate reservoirs.

Seismic characteristics of a reef carbonate reservoir and implications for hydrocarbon exploration in deepwater of the Qiongdongnan Basin, northern South China Sea

Our analysis of approximately 40,000 km of multichannel 2-D seismic data, reef oil-field seismic data, and data from several boreholes led to the identification of two areas of reef carbonate reservoirs in deepwater areas (water depth >= 500 in) of the Qiongdongnan Basin (QDNB), northern South China Sea. High-resolution sequence stratigraphic analysis revealed that the transgressive and highstand system tracts of the mid-Miocene Meishan Formation in the Beijiao and Ledong-Lingshui Depressions developed reef carbonates. The seismic features of the reef carbonates in these two areas include chaotic bedding, intermittent internal reflections, chaotic or blank reflections, mounded reflections, and apparent amplitude anomalies, similar to the seismic characteristics of the LH11-1 reef reservoir in the Dongsha Uplift and Island Reef of the Salawati Basin, Indonesia, which house large oil fields. The impedance values of reefs in the Beijiao and Ledong-Lingshui Depressions are 8000-9000 g/cc x m/s. Impedance sections reveal that the impedance of the LH11-1 reef reservoir in the northern South China Sea is 800010000 g/cc x m/s, whereas that of pure limestone in BD23-1-1 is > 10000 g/cc x m/s. The mid-Miocene paleogeography of the Beijiao Depression was dominated by offshore and neritic environments, with only part of the southern Beijiao uplift emergent at that time. The input of terrigenous sediments was relatively minor in this area, meaning that terrigenous source areas were insignificant in terms of the Beijiao Depression: reef carbonates were probably widely distributed throughout the depression, as with the Ledong-Lingshui Depression. The combined geological and geophysical data indicate that shelf margin atolls were well developed in the Beijiao Depression, as in the Ledong-Lingshui Depression where small-scale patch or pinnacle reefs developed. These reef carbonates are promising reservoirs, representing important targets for deepwater hydrocarbon exploration. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

大型反倾岩体变形破坏机制及稳定性分析———以金沙江宽谷坝址龙蟠边坡为例

A large number of catastrophic accidents were aroused by the instability and destruction of anti-dip rock masses in the worldwide engineering projects, such as hydropower station, mine, railways and so on. Problems in relation to deformation and failure about anti-dip rock slopes are significant for engineering geology research. This dissertation takes the Longpan slope in the Jinsha River as a case to study the deformation mechanism of large-scale anti-dip rock masses and the slope stability analysis method. The primary conclusions are as follows. The Dale Reach of Jinsha River, from Longpan to the debouchment of Chongjiang tributary, is located in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Longpan slope is the right embankment of Dale dam, it is only 26 km to the Shigu and 18 km to Tiger Leaping Gorge. The areal geology tectonic structures here area are complicated and blurry. Base on the information of geophysical exploration (CSAMT and seismology) and engineering geological investigation, the perdue tectonic pattern of Dale Reach is put forward for the first time in this paper. Due to the reverse slip of Longpan fault and normal left-rotation of Baihanchang fault, the old faulted valley came into being. The thick riverbed sediments have layered characters of different components and corresponding causes, which attribute to the sedimentary environments according with the new tectonic movements such as periodic mountain uplifting in middle Pleistocene. Longpan slope consists of anti-dip alternate sandstone and slate stratums, and the deformable volume is 6.5×107m3 approximately. It was taken for an ancient landslide or toppling failure in the past so that Dale dam became a vexed question. Through the latest field surveying, displacement monitoring and rock masses deforming characters analyses, the geological mechanism is actually a deep-seated gravitational bending deformation. And then the discrete element method is used to simulate the deforming evolution process, the conclusion accords very well with the geo-mechanical patterns analyses. In addition strength reduction method based on DEM is introduced to evaluate the factor of safety of anti-dip rock slope, and in accordance with the expansion way of the shear yielding zones, the progressive shear failure mechanism of large-scale anti-dip rock masses is proposed for the first time. As an embankment or a close reservoir bank to the lower dam, the stability of Longpan slope especially whether or not resulting in sliding with high velocity and activating water waves is a key question for engineering design. In fact it is difficult to decide the unified slip surface of anti-dip rock slope for traditional methods. The author takes the shear yielding zones acquired form the discrete element strength reduction calculation as the potential sliding surface and then evaluates the change of excess pore pressure and factor of stability of the slope generated by rapid drawdown of ponded water. At the same time the dynamic response of the slope under seismic loading is simulated through DEM numerical modeling, the following results are obtained. Firstly the effective effect of seismic inertia force is resulting in accumulation of shear stresses. Secondly the discontinuous structures are crucial to wave transmission. Thirdly the ultimate dynamic response of slope system takes place at the initial period of seismic loading. Lastly but essentially the effect of earthquake load to bringing on deformation and failure of rock slope is the coupling effect of shear stresses and excess pore water pressure accumulation. In view of limitations in searching the critical slip surface of rock slope of the existing domestic and international software for limit equilibrium slope stability analyses, this article proposes a new method named GA-Sarma Algorithm for rock slope stability analyses. Just as its name implies, GA-Sarma Algorithm bases on Genetic Algorithm and Sarma method. GA-Sarma Algorithm assumes the morphology of slip surface to be a broken line with traceability to extend along the discontinuous surface structures, and the slice boundaries is consistent with rock mass discontinuities such as rock layers, faults, cracks, and so on. GA-Sarma Algorithm is revolutionary method that is suitable for global optimization of the critical slip surface for rock slopes. The topics and contents including in this dissertation are closely related to the difficulties in practice, the main conclusions have been authorized by the engineering design institute. The research work is very meaningful and useful for the engineering construction of Longpan hydropower station.

吐合盆地鲁克沁构造带断块油藏形成机制及油藏预测

Lukeqin arc belt is a compound structure generated by multi-movements and composed of 6 sub-structural zones, which are connected by Huoyanshan Mountain. General characteristics of the arc belt are multi-patterns of structure, multi-phases for petroleum, multi-types of trap and multi-layers for reservoirs. As a part of the eastern Lukeqin arc belt located on the south of Taibei depression, Lukeqin structural zone behaves as a complex faulted-fold zone, in which the formation and distribution of hydrocarbons are controlled by structures. As the dominant source of dynamics for the second migration of hydrocarbon, structure stress field is closely related with the potentials of hydrodynamics. Results derived from the simulations of stress field by finite element method indicate that the northwest tending faults prefer seal to the northeast tending ones. The reason is that the northwest tending faults were squeezed more strongly than the northeast tending ones. Therefor, the northeast tending faults become always the paths for oil to migrate southeastward. Lukeqin structural zone is the main site for oil to concentration because it is surrounded by high stress. Situated on the front of the foreland basin of Turpan-Hami, Lukeqing arc belt is a dam to hold back the southward migrating oil from Shengbei depression. The axis line of Shenquan-Shengnan-Yanmuxi, Lukeqin and Yubei controls the migrating paths and concentrating process of oil and gas. Results derived from stress simulation and structure analyses indicate consistently that both Yubei and Lukeqin structural zones are the favorite areas for oil to migrate. The generally southward paths for oil to migrate out of Taibei depression can be two ways. One of them is from Taibei depression to Yubei structural zone and the other is from Taibei depression to Lukeqin structural zone. By the both ways, oil migrated upward along the faults and southeastward along the structural axis to concentrate in either Permian or Triassic system. The newly ascertained path for oil migration, which is accurately southeastward instead of coarsely southward, indicates the directions for further explorations on the compound Lukeqin block zone. Five kinds of seal models of fault are all found in Lukeqin block zone by studying the seal features of faults occurred in the zone. Having studied the fault seal and their controlling factors by fuzzy set method, the paper deems that the northwest tended faults are better than the northeast tended ones for oil to concentrate. The most important factors to decide the seal extent of faults in this zone are the characteristics of main stress and fluids instead of capillary pressure differences between the two sides of fault and smear mud factors. There exist seal differences not only between the faults of different time but also between the sections within a fault due to the variation of depths, strata and positions. The general distribution rules of reservoirs were dominated by the seal characteristics of a fault during the time reservoirs formed. While the current features of fault seal decide the conservation of reservoirs and heights of oil accumulations. Seal or not of a fault is not absolute because the essential for fault to seal is the distribution of permeability of fault zone. Therefor, the multi cyclical activities of faults create the space-time variation of seal features of the fault. Totally, the seal extent of the faults within the area is not as perfect as to accumulate ordinary crude. Crude oil can only be sealed when it becomes viscous. Process for crude oil to become viscous and viscous happened strongly because of the fault-fold movements. Shallowly burying and even revealing of the objective layers of the reservoirs made the crude oil to be thickened by water washing biologically degradation and oxidation degradation. The northwestward deepening during or after the reservoir formation of the structural zone provided the power for oil to migrate one or more times. The main reason for oil accumulation is the formation of Lukeqin block zone during Xishanyao stage, middle Jurassic Period, Early Yanshanian Movement. While the main reason for reservoir conservation is the placidity of Triassic blocks after the formation of reservoirs. Contrasting to former opinions, it is concluded that the reservoirs in Lukeqin zone, including viscous reservoirs, were formed by one time but not more times. So the author proposes the opinion that the reservoirs of viscous oil were formed by viscous oil migration under the conditions of aptitude sets of fault seals controlled by fluid and other factors. To grope the distribution rules outside Taibei depression and discuss the formation mechanism of Anjurassic reservoirs, it is necessary to study the dominate factors for the formation of reservoirs in Lukeqin structural zone such as structural stress, fault seals and thickening mechanism of crude oil. Also, the necessary studies are the key to break through the Taibei depression and Anjurassic systems. Therefor, they are significant for the future exploration and reserve increasing of hydrocarbon within the Turpan-Hami basin. The paper studied the distribution rules of block reservoirs and forecasted the favorable zones for further exploration in Turpan-Hami basin. Conclusions can be useful for not only the exploration in the area but also the theory consult in the adjacent areas.