中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

Seasonal changes in the distribution of dissolved organic nitrogen in coastal and open-ocean waters in the North East Pacific: sources and sinks

The distribution of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and nitrate were determined seasonally (winter, spring and summer) during three years along line P, i.e. an E-W transect from the coast of British Columbia, Canada, to Station P (50degreesN, 145degreesW) in the subarctic North East Pacific Ocean. In conjunction, DON measurements were made in the Straits of Juan de Fuca and Georgia within an estuarine system connected to the NE Pacific Ocean. The distribution of DON at the surface showed higher values of 4-17 muM in the Straits relative to values of 4-10 muM encountered along line P, respectively. Along line P, the concentration of DON showed an inshore-offshore gradient at the surface with higher values near the coast. The equation for the conservation of DON showed that horizontal transport of DON (inshore-offshore) was much larger than vertical physical mixing. Horizontal advection of DON-rich waters from the coastal estuarine system to the NE Pacific Ocean was likely the cause of the inshore-offshore gradient in the concentration of DON. Although the concentration of DON was very variable in space and time, it increased from winter to summer, with an average build up of 4.3 muM in the Straits and 0.7 muM in the NE subarctic Pacific. This implied seasonal DON sources of 0.3 mmol N m(-2) d(-1) at Station P and 1.5 mmol N m(-2) d(-1) in the Straits, respectively. These seasonal DON accumulation rates corresponded to about 15-20% of the seasonal nitrate uptake and suggested that there was a small seasonal build up of labile DON at the surface. However, the long residence times of 180-1560 d indicated that the most of the DON pool in surface waters was refractory in two very different productivity regimes of the NE Pacific. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

地幔对流理论及其在解释地球物理观测的应用

With the improving of mantle convection theory, the developing of computing method and increasing of the measurement data, we can numerically simulate more clearly about the effects on some geophysical observed phenomenons such as the global heat flow and global lithospheric stress field in the Earth's surface caused by mantle convection, which is the primary mechanism for the transport of heat from the Earth's deep interior to its surface and the underlying force mechanism of dynamics in the Earth.Chapter 1 reviews the historical background and present research state of mantle convection theory.In Chapter 2, the basic conception of thermal convection and the basic theory about mantle flow.The effects on generation and distribution of global lithospheric stres s field induced by mantle flow are the subject of Chapter 3. Mantle convection causes normal stress and tangential stresses at the bottom of the lithosphere, and then the sublithospheric stress field induces the lithospheric deformation as sixrface force and results in the stress field within the lithosphere. The simulation shows that the agreement between predictions and observations is good in most regions. Most of subduction zones and continental collisions are under compressive. While ocean ridges, such as the east Pacific ridge, the Atlantic ridge and the east African rift valley, are under tensile. And most of the hotspots preferentially occur in regions where calculated stress is tensile. The calculated directions of the most compressive principal horizontal stress are largely in accord with that of the observation except for some regions such as the NW-Pacifie subduction zone and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, in which the directions of the most compressive principal horizontal stress are different. It shows that the mantel flow plays an important role in causing or affecting the large-scale stress field within the lithosphere.The global heat flow simulation based on a kinematic model of mantle convection is given in Chapter 4. Mantle convection velocities are calculated based on the internal loading theory at first, the velocity field is used as the input to solve the thermal problem. Results show that calculated depth derivatives of the near surface temperature are closely correlated to the observed surface heat flow pattern. Higher heat flow values around midocean ridge systems can be reproduced very well. The predicted average temperature as a function of function of depth reveals that there are two thermal boundary layers, one is close to the surface and another is close to the core-mantle boundary, the rest of the mantle is nearly isothermal. Although, in most of the mantle, advection dominates the heat transfer, the conductive heat transfer is still locally important in the boundary layers and plays an important role for the surface heat flow pattern. The existence of surface plates is responsible for the long wavelength surface heat flow pattern.In Chapter 5, the effects on present-day crustal movement in the China Mainland resulted from the mantle convection are introduced. Using a dynamic method, we present a quantitative model for the present-day crustal movement in China. We consider not only the effect of the India-Eurasia collision, the gravitational potential energy difference of the Tibet Plateau, but also the contribution of the shear traction on the bottom of the lithosphere induced by the global mantle convection. The comparison between our results and the velocity field obtained from the GPS observation shows that our model satisfactorily reproduces the general picture of crustal deformation in China. Numerical modeling results reveal that the stress field on the base of the lithosphere induced by the mantle flow is probably a considerable factor that causes the movement and deformation of the lithosphere in continental China with its eflfcet focuing on the Eastern China A numerical research on the small-scale convection with variable viscosity in the upper mantle is introduced in Chapter 6. Based on a two-dimensional model, small-scale convection in the mantle-lithosphere system with variable viscosity is researched by using of finite element method. Variation of viscosity in exponential form with temperature is considered in this paper The results show that if viscosity is strongly temperature-dependent, the upper part of the system does not take a share in the convection and a stagnant lid, which is identified as lithosphere, is formed on the top of system because of low temperature and high viscosity. The calculated surface heat flow, topography and gravity anomaly are associated well with the convection pattern, namely, the regions with high heat flow and uplift correspond to the upwelling flow, and vice versa.In Chapter 7, we give a brief of future research subject: The inversion of lateral density heterogeneity in the mantle by minimizing the viscous dissipation.