Predicting chaotic time-series with wavelet networks

A new technique, wavelet network, is introduced to predict chaotic time series. By using this technique, firstly, we make accurate short-term predictions of the time series from chaotic attractors. Secondly, we make accurate predictions of the values and bifurcation structures of the time series from dynamical systems whose parameter values are changing with time. Finally we predict chaotic attractors by making long-term predictions based on remarkably few data points, where the correlation dimensions of predicted attractors are calculated and are found to be almost identical to those of actual attractors.

抽水引起岩溶塌陷的机理及非线性预测研究

Karst collapse is one of the most important engineering geology hazards in Karst district, which seriously endangers the living of humankind and the environment around us, as well as the natural resources. Generally speaking, there exist three processes of overburden karst collapse:the formation of soil cavity, the expansion of soil cavity and the fall of the cavity roof. During these processes, groundwater is always the most active factor and plays a key role. Pumping will bring into the great change of groundwater in flow state, flowrate, frequency of fluctuation as well as hydraulic gradient and will speed the fall. Statistics shows that most of the man-made karst collapse are induced by pumping, so studying the mechanism of Karst collapse induced by pumping will provide theoretical base for the prediction and precaution of collapse. By theoretically studying the initial condition for the forming and expanding of a soil cavity, Spalling step by step the essential mechanism of Karst collapse induced by pumping is put forward. The catastrophe model for the collapse induced by pumping is set up to predict the fall probability of a cavity roof, and the criterion for the collapse is determined. Simultaneously, Karst collapse induced by pumping is predicted with manmade neural network theory. Finally, the appropriate precaution measurements for the collapse induced by pumping are provided. The creative opinions of the paper is following: The initial condition of forming a soil cavity is put forwarded as formula (4-1-5), (4-1-24),(4-1-25) and (4-1-27); which provide theoretical base for foreclosing the formation of a soil cavity and defending collapse. Spaliing step by step as the essential mechanism of Karst collapse induced by pumping is put forward. The spaliing force is defined as formula (4-2-15). The condition for the expanding of a soil cavity is that spaliing force is greater than tensile strength of soil. The stability of a soil cavity is first studied with catastrophe theory. It is concluded that the process of development up to ground collapse of a small cavity is continuous, however, the process of a big cavity is catastrophic. It is feasibility that the Karst collapse be predicted with manmade neural network theory as a new way.

High Aspect Ratio (L/D) Riser Viv Prediction Using Wake Oscillator Model

A two-dimensional (2-D) vortex-induced vibration (VIV) prediction model for high aspect ratio (LID) riser subjected to uniform and sheared flow is studied in this paper. The nonlinear structure equations are considered. The near wake dynamics describing the fluctuating nature of vortex shedding is modeled using classical van der Pol equation. A new approach was applied to calibrate the empirical parameters in the wake oscillator model. Compared the predicted results with the experimental data and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) results. Good agreements are observed. It can be concluded that the present model can be used as simple computational tool in predicting some aspects of VIV of long flexible structures. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear Constitutive Behavior Of Ferroelectric Materials

The ferroelectric specimen is considered as an aggregation of many randomly oriented domains. According to this mechanism, a multi-domain mechanical model is developed in this paper. Each domain is represented by one element. The applied stress and electric field are taken to be the stress and electric field in the formula of the driving force of domain switching for each element in the specimen. It means that the macroscopic switching criterion is used for calculating the volume fraction of domain switching for each element. By using the hardening relation between the driving force of domain switching and the volume fraction of domain switching calibrated, the volume fraction of domain switching for each element is calculated. Substituting the stress and electric field and the volume fraction of domain switching into the constitutive equation of ferroelectric material, one can easily get the strain and electric displacement for each element. The macroscopic behavior of the ferroelectric specimen is then directly calculated by volume averaging. Meanwhile, the nonlinear finite element analysis for the ferroelectric specimen is carried out. In the finite element simulation, the volume fraction of domain switching for each element is calculated by using the same method mentioned above. The interaction between different elements is taken into account in the finite element simulation and the local stress and electric field for each element is obtained. The macroscopic behavior of the specimen is then calculated by volume averaging. The computation results involve the electric butterfly shaped curves of axial strain versus the axial electric field and the hysteresis loops of electric displacement versus the electric field for ferroelectric specimens under the uniaxial coupled stress and electric field loading. The present theoretical prediction agrees reasonably with the experimental results.

Energy Principle And Nonlinear Electric-Mechanical Behavior Of Ferroelectric Ceramics

Many experimental observations have shown that a single domain in a ferroelectric material switches by progressive movement of domain walls, driven by a combination of electric field and stress. The mechanism of the domain switch involves the following steps: initially, the domain has a uniform spontaneous polarization; new domains with the reverse polarization direction nucleate, mainly at the surface, and grow though the crystal thickness; the new domain expands sideways as a new domain continues to form; finally, the domain switch coalesces to complete the polarization reversal. According to this mechanism, the volume fraction of the domain switching is introduced in the constitutive law of the ferroelectric material and used to study the nonlinear constitutive behavior of a ferroelectric body in this paper. The principle of stationary total potential energy is put forward in which the basic unknown quantities are the displacement u(i), electric displacement D-i and volume fraction rho(I) of the domain switching for the variant I. The mechanical field equation and a new domain switching criterion are obtained from the principle of stationary total potential energy. The domain switching criterion proposed in this paper is an expansion and development of the energy criterion established by Hwang et al. [ 1]. Based on the domain switching criterion, a set of linear algebraic equations for determining the volume fraction rho(I) of domain switching is obtained, in which the coefficients of the linear algebraic equations only contain the unknown strain and electric fields. If the volume fraction rho(I) of domain switching for each domain is prescribed, the unknown displacement and electric potential can be obtained based on the conventional finite element procedure. It is assumed that a domain switches if the reduction in potential energy exceeds a critical energy barrier. According to the experimental results, the energy barrier will strengthen when the volume fraction of the domain switching increases. The external mechanical and electric loads are increased step by step. The volume fraction rho(I) of domain switching for each element obtained from the last loading step is used as input to the constitutive equations. Then the strain and electric fields are calculated based on the conventional finite element procedure. The finite element analysis is carried out on the specimens subjected to uniaxial coupling stress and electric field. Numerical results and available experimental data are compared and discussed. The present theoretic prediction agrees reasonably with the experimental results.

Transition waves and nonlinear interactions in the near wake of a circular cylinder

Transition waves and interactions between two kinds of instability-vortex shedding and transition wave in the near wake of a circular cylinder in the Reynolds number range 3 000-10 000 are studied by a domain decomposition hybrid numerical method. Based on high resolution power spectral analyses for velocity new results on the Reynolds-number dependence of the transition wave frequency, i.e. f(t)/f(s) similar to Re-0.87 are obtained. The new predictions are in good agreement with the experimental results of Wei and Smith but different from Braza's prediction and some early experimental results f(t)/f(s) similar to Re-0.5 given by Bloor et nl. The multi-interactions between two kinds of vortex are clearly visualized numerically. The strong nonlinear interactions between the two independent frequencies (f(t), f(s)) leading to spectra broadening to form the coupling mf(s) +/- nf(t) are predicted and analyzed numerically, and the characteristics of the transition are described. Longitudinal variations of the transition wave and its coupling are reported. Detailed mechanism of the flow transition in the near wake before occurrence of the three-dimensional evolution is provided.

Prediction of Effective Moduli of Carbon Nanotube-Reinforced Composites with Waviness and Debonding

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have been regarded as ideal reinforcements of high-performance composites with enormous applications. However, the waviness of the CNTs and the interfacial bonding condition between them and the matrix are two key factors that influence the reinforcing efficiency. In this paper, the effects of the waviness of the CNTs and the interfacial debonding between them and the matrix on the effective moduli of CNT-reinforced composites are studied. A simple analytical model is presented to investigate the influence of the waviness on the effective moduli. Then, two methods are proposed to examine the influence of the debonding. It is shown that both the waviness and debonding can significantly reduce the stiffening effect of the CNTs. The effective moduli are very sensitive to the waviness when the latter is small, and this sensitivity decreases with the increase of the waviness. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PREDICTION OF VORTEX-INDUCED VIBRATION OF FLEXIBLE RISER USING AN IMPROVED WAKE-OSCILLATOR MODEL

Based on improving the wake-oscillator model, an analytical model for vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of flexible riser under non-uniform current is presented, in which the variation of added mass at lock-in and the nonlinear relationship between amplitude of response and reduced velocity are considered. By means of empirical formula combining iteration computation, the improved analytical model can be conveniently programmed into computer code with simpler and faster computation process than CFD so as to be suitable to application of practical engineering. This model is validated by comparing with experimental result and numerical simulation. Our results show that the improved model can predict VIV response and lock-in region more accurately. At last, illustrative examples are given in which the amplitude of response of flexible riser experiencing VIV under action of non-uniform current is calculated and effects of riser tension and flow distribution along span of riser are explored. It is demonstrated that with the variation of tension and flow distribution, lock-in region of mode behaves in different way, and thus the final response is a synthesis of response of locked modes.

Theoretical studies of nonlinear optical properties of compounds K(4)Ln(2)(CO3)(3)F-4 (Ln=Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd)

K(4)Ln(2)(CO3)(3)F-4 (Ln=Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd) is a special type of frequency doubling compound, whose crystal structure exhibits a scarcity of fluorine ions. This leads to two different coordination polyhedrons in the general position of K(2) atoms: [K(2)O6F(1)(2)F(2)] and [K(21)O6F(1)(2)] in a 2/1 ratio. The chemical bonding structures of all constituent atoms of the compound K4Gd2(CO3)(3)F-4 (KGCOF) are comprehensively studied; moreover, the relationship between the chemical bonding structure and the nonlinear optical (NLO) properties is investigated from the chemical bond viewpoint. The theoretical prediction of the NLO tensor coefficient d(11) of KGCOF is in agreement with experimental observation. Theoretical analyses show that the nonlinearity of this crystal type mainly originates from K-O bonds. In addition, the correlation between the NLO tensor d(11) and the refractive index n(0) of KGCOF is discussed. (C) 2000 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-8979(00)07506-X].

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Algorithm Studies on How to Obtain a Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP)

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a nonlinear generalization of the linear singular vector (LSV), is applied in important problems of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, including ENSO predictability, targeted observations, and ensemble forecast. In this study, we investigate the computational cost of obtaining the CNOP by several methods. Differences and similarities, in terms of the computational error and cost in obtaining the CNOP, are compared among the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm, the limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm, and the spectral projected gradients (SPG2) algorithm. A theoretical grassland ecosystem model and the classical Lorenz model are used as examples. Numerical results demonstrate that the computational error is acceptable with all three algorithms. The computational cost to obtain the CNOP is reduced by using the SQP algorithm. The experimental results also reveal that the L-BFGS algorithm is the most effective algorithm among the three optimization algorithms for obtaining the CNOP. The numerical results suggest a new approach and algorithm for obtaining the CNOP for a large-scale optimization problem.

Highly nonlinear internal solitary waves over the continental shelf of the northwestern South China Sea

Large amplitude internal solitary waves (ISWs) often exhibit highly nonlinear effects and may contribute significantly to mixing and energy transporting in the ocean. We observed highly nonlinear ISWs over the continental shelf of the northwestern South China Sea (19A degrees 35'N, 112A degrees E) in May 2005 during the Wenchang Internal Wave Experiment using in-situ time series data from an array of temperature and salinity sensors, and an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). We summarized the characteristics of the ISWs and compared them with those of existing internal wave theories. Particular attention has been paid to characterizing solitons in terms of the relationship between shape and amplitude-width. Comparison between theoretical prediction and observation results shows that the high nonlinearity of these waves is better represented by the second-order extended Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) theory than the first-order KdV model. These results indicate that the northwestern South China Sea (SCS) is rich in highly nonlinear ISWs that are an indispensable part of the energy budget of the internal waves in the northern South China Sea.

Statistical distribution of nonlinear random wave height

A statistical model of random wave is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. A new nonlinear probability distribution function of wave height is presented. The results indicate that wave steepness not only could be a parameter of the distribution function of wave height but also could reflect the degree of wave height distribution deviation from the Rayleigh distribution. The new wave height distribution overcomes the problem of Rayleigh distribution that the prediction of big wave is overestimated and the general wave is underestimated. The prediction of small probability wave height value of new distribution is also smaller than that of Rayleigh distribution. Wave height data taken from East China Normal University are used to verify the new distribution. The results indicate that the new distribution fits the measurements much better than the Rayleigh distribution.

Identification of nonlinear dynamic systems: Time-frequency filtering and skeleton curves

The nonlinear behavior varying with the instantaneous response was analyzed through the joint time-frequency analysis method for a class of S. D. O. F nonlinear system. A masking operator an definite regions is defined and two theorems are presented. Based on these, the nonlinear system is modeled with a special time-varying linear one, called the generalized skeleton linear system (GSLS). The frequency skeleton curve and the damping skeleton curve are defined to describe the main feature of the non-linearity as well. Moreover, an identification method is proposed through the skeleton curves and the time-frequency filtering technique.

Nonlinear Analysis of Submarine Pipelines During Single Point Lifting

基于管道微单元体平衡建立了海管单点提升的非线性力学模型的控制微分方程组,使用变弧长的无量纲代换将动边界问题化为固定边界的两点边值问题,利用maple环境下编制的两点边值问题的打靶法程序得到了该问题在各个提升阶段的数值解答和在单点提升过程中管道的极限弯矩约为0.71q~{1/3}(EI)~{2/3}。