data transformation and attribute subset selection: do they help make differences in software failure prediction?

IEEE, IEEE Comp Soc, Tech Council Software Engn

Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability

Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting.

加卸载响应比方法在结构灾变预测中的应用

加卸载响应比方法为非均匀脆性介质的灾变评估提供了新的思路,即用加载与卸载响应的差别来定量刻画介质的损伤程度.为了验证加卸载响应比方法应用于结构失效分析的有效性,首先运用加卸载响应比方法对意大利那不勒斯大学完成的1个2层楼房的加卸载实验进行分析,结果表明:在临近结构破坏之前加卸载响应比时间序列确实出现了异常明显的升高及回落;进而引入岩石破裂声发射实验进行研究,发现采用轴向应变做响应量计算得剑的加卸载响应比时间序列与楼房结构的响应比曲线在演化趋势上非常一致.进一步比较声发射能量率和宏观应做为响应得到的加卸载响应比时间序列,发现两者有着较为同步的稳定、异常、升高至峰值、急剧回落的演化过程.为了明确加卸载响应比与结构内部损伤的联系,基于损伤力学方法从理论上对此进行了分析,很明显加卸载响应比值在一定程度上可以反推结构的损伤程度,其演化可以为大型结构健康评估和工程灾变分析提供有益的参考及借鉴.

Computer simulation of the damage evolution of fiber-reinforced polypropylene-matrix composites with matrix defects

The damage evolution of fiber-reinforced polypropylene-matrix composites with matrix defects was studied via a Monte Carlo technique combined with a finite element method. A finite element model was constructed to predict the effects of various matrix defect shapes on the stress distributions. The results indicated that a small matrix defect had almost no effect on fiber stress distributions other than interfacial shear stress distributions. Then, a finite element model with a statistical distribution of the fiber strength was constructed to investigate the influences of the spatial distribution and the volume fraction of matrix defects on composite failure. The results showed that it was accurate to use the shear-lag models and Green's function methods to predict the tensile strength of composites even though the axial stresses in the matrix were neglected.

State Vector: A New Approach to Prediction of the Failure of Brittle Heterogeneous Media and Large Earthquakes

The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.

Prediction of structural dynamic plastic shear failure by Johnson's damage number

It is proved that Johnson's damage number is the sole similarity parameter for dynamic plastic shear failure of structures loaded impulsively, therefore, dynamic plastic shear failure can be understood when damage number reaches a critical value. It is suggested that the damage number be generally used to predict the dynamic plastic shear failure of structures under various kinds of dynamic loads (impulsive loading, rectangular pressure pulse, exponential pressure pulse, etc.,). One of the advantages for using the damage number to predict such kind of failure is that it is conveniently used for dissimilar material modeling.

Damage evolution, localization and failure of solids subjected to impact loading

In order to reveal the underlying mesoscopic mechanism governing the experimentally observed failure in solids subjected to impact loading, this paper presents a model of statistical microdamage evolution to macroscopic failure, in particular to spallation. Based on statistical microdamage mechanics and experimental measurement of nucleation and growth of microcracks in an Al alloy subjected to plate impact loading, the evolution law of damage and the dynamical function of damage are obtained. Then, a lower bound to damage localization can be derived. It is found that the damage evolution beyond the threshold of damage localization is extremely fast. So, damage localization can serve as a precursor to failure. This is supported by experimental observations. On the other hand, the prediction of failure becomes more accurate, when the dynamic function of damage is fitted with longer experimental observations. We also looked at the failure in creep with the same idea. Still, damage localization is a nice precursor to failure in creep rupture.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Prediction of mixed-mode cracking direction in random, short-fibre composite-materials

The prediction of cracking direction in composite materials is of significance to the design of composite structures. This paper presents several methods for predicting the cracking direction in the double grooved tension-shear specimen which gives mixed-mode cracking. Five different criteria are used in this analysis: two of them have been used by other investigators and the others are proposed by the present authors. The strain energy density criterion proposed by G.C. Sih is modified to take account of the influence of the anisotropy of the strength on the direction of crack. The two failure criteria of Tsai-Hill and Norris are extended to predict the crack orientation. The stress distributions in the near-notch zone are calculated by using the 8-node quadrilateral isoparametric finite element method. The predictions of all the criteria except one are in good agreement with the experimental measurement. In addition, on the basis of the FEM results, the size of the zone in which the singular term is dominant is estimated.

Structural Failure Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Micro-Accelerometers under Impulsive Loading

Micromachined accelerometer is a kind of inertial MEMS devices, which usually operate under intensive impact loading. The reliability of micromachined accelerometers is one of the most important performance indices for their design, manufacture and commer

Material response and failure mechanism of unidirectional metal matrix composites under impulsive shear loading

The material response and failure mechanism of unidirectional metal matrix composite under impulsive shear loading are investigated in this paper. Both experimental and analytical studies were performed. The shear strength of unidirectional C-f/A356.0 composite and A356.0 aluminum alloy at high strain rate were measured with a modified split Hopkinson torsional bar technique. The results indicated that the carbon fibers did not improve the shear strength of aluminum matrix if the fiber orientation aligned with the shear loading axis. The microscopic inspection of the fractured surface showed a multi-scale zigzag feature which implied a complicated shear failure mechanism in the composite. In addition to testing, the micromechanical stress field in the composite was analyzed by the generalized Eshelby equivalent method (GEEM). The influence of cracking in matrix on the micromechanical stress field was investigated as well. The results showed that the stress distribution in the composite is quite nonhomogeneous and very high shear stress concentrations are found in some regions in the matrix. The high shear stress concentration in the matrix induces tensile cracking at 45 degrees to the shear direction. This in turn aggravates the stress concentration at the fiber/matrix interface and finally leads to a catastrophic failure in the composite. From the correlation between the analysis and experimental results, the shear failure mechanism of unidirectional C-f/A356.0 composite can be elucidated qualitatively.

Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Acoustic Emission Experiments of Rock Failure under Load Simulating the Hypocenter Condition

A series of acoustic emission (AE) experiments of rock failure have been conducted under cyclic load in tri-axial stress tests. To simulate the hypocenter condition the specimens are loaded by the combined action of a constant stress, intended to simulate

Mechanism on Progressive Failure of a Faulted Rock Slope Due to Slip-Weakening

Slip-weakening is one of the characteristics of geological materials under certain loadings. Non-uniform rock structure may exist in the vicinity of the slip surface for a rock slope. Some portion of the slip surface may be penetrated but the other not. For the latter case, the crack or the fault surface will undergo shear deformation before it becomes a successive surface under a certain loading. As the slipped portion advances,slip-weakening occurs over a distance behind the crack tip. In the weakening zone, the shear strength will decrease from its peak value to residual friction level. The stress will redistribute along the surface of crack and in the weakening zone. Thus the changed local stress concentration leads the crack to extend and the ratio of penetration of the slip surface to increase. From the view of large-scale for the whole slip surface, the shear strength will decrease due to the damage of interior rock structure, and the faulted rock behaves as a softening material. Such a kind of mechanism performs in a large number of practical landslides in the zones experienced strong earthquakes. It should be noted that the mechanism mentioned above is different from that of the breakage of structural clay,in which the geological material is regarded as a medium containing structural lumps and structural bands. In this paper, the softening behavior of a faulted rock should be regarded as a comprehensive result of the whole complicated process including slip-weakening, redistribution of stress, extension of crack tip, and the penetration of the slip surface. This process is accompanied by progressive failure and abrupt structural damage. The size of slip-weakening zone is related to the undergoing strain. Once the relative slide is initiated (local or integrated), the effect of slip-weakening will behave in a certain length behind the crack tip until the formation of the whole slip surface.

Failure modes of doubly supported capacitive RF MEMS switches

For the design of radio frequency micro-electro-mechanical systems (RF MEMS) switches, the reliability issue becomes increasingly important. This paper represents some failure phenomena of doubly supported capacitive RF MEMS switches that include observable destruction failure and directly measurable parameter degradation obtained from the actuating-voltage testing and scanning electron microscope (SEM) observation. The relevant failure modes as well as their failure mechanisms are identified.