The technical potential for reducing metal requirements through lightweight product design

Metal production consumes around 10% of all global energy, so is a significant driver of climate change and other concerns about sustainability. Demand for metal is rising and forecast to double by 2050 through a combination of growing total demand from developing countries, and ongoing replacement demand in developed economies. Metal production is already extremely efficient, so the major opportunities for emissions abatement in the sector are likely to arise from material efficiency - using less new metal to meet demand for services. Therefore this paper examines the opportunity to reduce requirements for steel and aluminium by lightweight design. A set of general principles for lightweight design are proposed by way of a simple analytical example, and are then applied to five case study products which cumulatively account for 30% of global steel product output. It is shown that exploiting lightweight design opportunities for these five products alone could reduce global steel requirements by 5%, and similar savings in aluminium products could reduce global aluminium requirements by 7%. If similar savings to those in the design case studies were possible in all steel and aluminium products, total material requirements could be reduced by 25-30%. However, many of these light-weighting measures are, at present, economically unattractive, and may take many years to implement. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Change propagation analysis in complex technical systems

Understanding how and why changes propagate during engineering design is critical because most products and systems emerge from predecessors and not through clean sheet design. This paper applies change propagation analysis methods and extends prior reasoning through examination of a large data set from industry including 41,500 change requests, spanning 8 years during the design of a complex sensor system. Different methods are used to analyze the data and the results are compared to each other and evaluated in the context of previous findings. In particular the networks of connected parent, child and sibling changes are resolved over time and mapped to 46 subsystem areas. A normalized change propagation index (CPI) is then developed, showing the relative strength of each area on the absorber-multiplier spectrum between -1 and +1. Multipliers send out more changes than they receive and are good candidates for more focused change management. Another interesting finding is the quantitative confirmation of the "ripple" change pattern. Unlike the earlier prediction, however, it was found that the peak of cyclical change activity occurred late in the program driven by systems integration and functional testing. Patterns emerged from the data and offer clear implications for technical change management approaches in system design. Copyright © 2007 by ASME.

Material efficiency: providing material services with less material production.

Material efficiency, as discussed in this Meeting Issue, entails the pursuit of the technical strategies, business models, consumer preferences and policy instruments that would lead to a substantial reduction in the production of high-volume energy-intensive materials required to deliver human well-being. This paper, which introduces a Discussion Meeting Issue on the topic of material efficiency, aims to give an overview of current thinking on the topic, spanning environmental, engineering, economics, sociology and policy issues. The motivations for material efficiency include reducing energy demand, reducing the emissions and other environmental impacts of industry, and increasing national resource security. There are many technical strategies that might bring it about, and these could mainly be implemented today if preferred by customers or producers. However, current economic structures favour the substitution of material for labour, and consumer preferences for material consumption appear to continue even beyond the point at which increased consumption provides any increase in well-being. Therefore, policy will be required to stimulate material efficiency. A theoretically ideal policy measure, such as a carbon price, would internalize the externality of emissions associated with material production, and thus motivate change directly. However, implementation of such a measure has proved elusive, and instead the adjustment of existing government purchasing policies or existing regulations-- for instance to do with building design, planning or vehicle standards--is likely to have a more immediate effect.

Designing climate change mitigation plans that add up.

Mitigation plans to combat climate change depend on the combined implementation of many abatement options, but the options interact. Published anthropogenic emissions inventories are disaggregated by gas, sector, country, or final energy form. This allows the assessment of novel energy supply options, but is insufficient for understanding how options for efficiency and demand reduction interact. A consistent framework for understanding the drivers of emissions is therefore developed, with a set of seven complete inventories reflecting all technical options for mitigation connected through lossless allocation matrices. The required data set is compiled and calculated from a wide range of industry, government, and academic reports. The framework is used to create a global Sankey diagram to relate human demand for services to anthropogenic emissions. The application of this framework is demonstrated through a prediction of per-capita emissions based on service demand in different countries, and through an example showing how the "technical potentials" of a set of separate mitigation options should be combined.

A global assessment of manufacturing: Economic development, energy use, carbon emissions, and the potential for energy efficiency and materials recycling

We present in two parts an assessment of global manufacturing. In the first part, we review economic development, pollution, and carbon emissions from a country perspective, tracking the rise of China and other developing countries. The results show not only a rise in the economic fortunes of the newly industrializing nations, but also a significant rise in global pollution, particularly air pollution and CO2 emissions largely from coal use, which alter and even reverse previous global trends. In the second part, we change perspective and quantitatively evaluate two important technical strategies to reduce pollution and carbon emissions: energy efficiency and materials recycling. We subdivide the manufacturing sector on the basis of the five major subsectors that dominate energy use and carbon emissions: (a) iron and steel, (b) cement, (c) plastics, (d) paper, and (e) aluminum. The analysis identifies technical constraints on these strategies, but by combined and aggressive action, industry should be able to balance increases in demand with these technical improvements. The result would be high but relatively flat energy use and carbon emissions. The review closes by demonstrating the consequences of extrapolating trends in production and carbon emissions and suggesting two options for further environmental improvements, materials efficiency, and demand reduction. © 2013 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.