Assessing seasonal precipitation trends in India using parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques

This paper provides an insight into the long-term trends of the four seasonal and annual precipitations in various climatological regions and sub-regions in India. The trends were useful to investigate whether Indian seasonal rainfall is changing in terms of magnitude or location-wise. Trends were assessed over the period of 1954-2003 using parametric ordinary least square fits and non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The trend significance was tested at the 95% confidence level. Apart from the trends for individual climatological regions in India and the average for the whole of India, trends were also specifically determined for the possible smaller geographical areas in order to understand how different the trends would be from the bigger spatial scales. The smaller geographical regions consist of the whole southwestern continental state of Kerala. It was shown that there are decreasing trends in the spring and monsoon rainfall and increasing trends in the autumn and winter rainfalls. These changes are not always homogeneous over various regions, even in the very short scales implying a careful regional analysis would be necessary for drawing conclusions regarding agro-ecological or other local projects requiring change in rainfall information. Furthermore, the differences between the trend magnitudes and directions from the two different methods are significantly small and fall well within the significance limit for all the cases investigated in Indian regions (except where noted). © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Modelling of EDC-enabled multimode fibre links

The application of electronic dispersion compensation (EDC) technology to extended-reach operation of multimode-fibre (MMF) links is considered. The essential theory is described in the context of MMF and the application of statistical techniques to predict supported link lengths for EDC-enabled MMF links is presented.

Robust approach to dynamic statistical process control

Statistical Process Control (SPC) technique are well established across a wide range of industries. In particular, the plotting of key steady state variables with their statistical limit against time (Shewart charting) is a common approach for monitoring the normality of production. This paper aims with extending Shewart charting techniques to the quality monitoring of variables driven by uncertain dynamic processes, which has particular application in the process industries where it is desirable to monitor process variables on-line as well as final product. The robust approach to dynamic SPC is based on previous work on guaranteed cost filtering for linear systems and is intended to provide a basis for both a wide application of SPC monitoring and also motivate unstructured fault detection.

Reinforcement learning for parameter estimation in statistical spoken dialogue systems

Reinforcement techniques have been successfully used to maximise the expected cumulative reward of statistical dialogue systems. Typically, reinforcement learning is used to estimate the parameters of a dialogue policy which selects the system's responses based on the inferred dialogue state. However, the inference of the dialogue state itself depends on a dialogue model which describes the expected behaviour of a user when interacting with the system. Ideally the parameters of this dialogue model should be also optimised to maximise the expected cumulative reward. This article presents two novel reinforcement algorithms for learning the parameters of a dialogue model. First, the Natural Belief Critic algorithm is designed to optimise the model parameters while the policy is kept fixed. This algorithm is suitable, for example, in systems using a handcrafted policy, perhaps prescribed by other design considerations. Second, the Natural Actor and Belief Critic algorithm jointly optimises both the model and the policy parameters. The algorithms are evaluated on a statistical dialogue system modelled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process in a tourist information domain. The evaluation is performed with a user simulator and with real users. The experiments indicate that model parameters estimated to maximise the expected reward function provide improved performance compared to the baseline handcrafted parameters. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An ngram-based statistical machine translation decoder

In this paper we describe MARIE, an Ngram-based statistical machine translation decoder. It is implemented using a beam search strategy, with distortion (or reordering) capabilities. The underlying translation model is based on an Ngram approach, extended to introduce reordering at the phrase level. The search graph structure is designed to perform very accurate comparisons, what allows for a high level of pruning, improving the decoder efficiency. We report several techniques for efficiently prune out the search space. The combinatory explosion of the search space derived from the search graph structure is reduced by limiting the number of reorderings a given translation is allowed to perform, and also the maximum distance a word (or a phrase) is allowed to be reordered. We finally report translation accuracy results on three different translation tasks.

Experimental investigation of stratified combustion: Application of laser diagnostic techniques

In order to better understand the stratified combustion, the propagation of flame through stratified mixture field in laminar and turbulent flow conditions has been studied by using combined PIV/PLIF techniques. A great emphasis was placed on developing methods to improve the accuracy of local measurements of flame propagation. In particular, a new PIV approach has been developed to measure the local fresh gas velocity near preheat zone of flame front. To improve the resolution of measurement, the shape of interrogation window has been continuously modified based on the local flame topology and gas expansion effect. Statistical analysis of conditioned local measurements by the local equivalence ratio of flames allows the characterization of the properties of flame propagation subjected to the mixture stratification in laminar and turbulent flows, especially the highlight of the memory effect.

Systematic misregistration and the statistical analysis of surface data.

Spatial normalisation is a key element of statistical parametric mapping and related techniques for analysing cohort statistics on voxel arrays and surfaces. The normalisation process involves aligning each individual specimen to a template using some sort of registration algorithm. Any misregistration will result in data being mapped onto the template at the wrong location. At best, this will introduce spatial imprecision into the subsequent statistical analysis. At worst, when the misregistration varies systematically with a covariate of interest, it may lead to false statistical inference. Since misregistration generally depends on the specimen's shape, we investigate here the effect of allowing for shape as a confound in the statistical analysis, with shape represented by the dominant modes of variation observed in the cohort. In a series of experiments on synthetic surface data, we demonstrate how allowing for shape can reveal true effects that were previously masked by systematic misregistration, and also guard against misinterpreting systematic misregistration as a true effect. We introduce some heuristics for disentangling misregistration effects from true effects, and demonstrate the approach's practical utility in a case study of the cortical bone distribution in 268 human femurs.