Elemental unbiased estimators for the Generalized Pareto tail

Unbiased location- and scale-invariant `elemental' estimators for the GPD tail parameter are constructed. Each involves three log-spacings. The estimators are unbiased for finite sample sizes, even as small as N=3. It is shown that the elementals form a complete basis for unbiased location- and scale-invariant estimators constructed from linear combinations of log-spacings. Preliminary numerical evidence is presented which suggests that elemental combinations can be constructed which are consistent estimators of the tail parameter for samples drawn from the pure GPD family.

Elemental estimators for the Generalized Extreme Value tail

In a companion paper (McRobie(2013) arxiv:1304.3918), a simple set of `elemental' estimators was presented for the Generalized Pareto tail parameter. Each elemental estimator: involves only three log-spacings; is absolutely unbiased for all values of the tail parameter; is location- and scale-invariant; and is valid for all sample sizes $N$, even as small as $N= 3$. It was suggested that linear combinations of such elementals could then be used to construct efficient unbiased estimators. In this paper, the analogous mathematical approach is taken to the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The resulting elemental estimators, although not absolutely unbiased, are found to have very small bias, and may thus provide a useful basis for the construction of efficient estimators.

Localized tail state distribution in amorphous oxide transistors deduced from low temperature measurements

In this paper, we extract density of localized tail states from measurements of low temperature conductance in amorphous oxide transistors. At low temperatures, trap-limited conduction prevails, allowing extraction of the trapped carrier distribution with energy. Using a test device with a-InGaZnO channel layer, the extracted tail state energy and density at the conduction band minima are 20 meV and 2 × 10 19 cm -3 eV -1, respectively, which are consistent with values reported in the literature. Also, the field-effect mobility as a function of temperature from 77 K to 300 K is retrieved for different gate voltages, yielding the activation energy and the percolation threshold. © 2012 American Institute of Physics.

Defect and disorder reduction by annealing in hydrogenated tetrahedral amorphous carbon

Hydrogenated tetrahedral amorphous carbon (ta-C:H) is a form of diamond-like carbon with a high sp3 content (>60%), grown here using a plasma beam source. Information on the behaviour of hydrogen upon annealing is obtained from effusion measurements, which show that hydrogen does not effuse significantly at temperatures less than 500 °C in films grown using methane and 700 °C in films grown using acetylene. Raman measurements show no significant structural changes at temperatures up to 300 °C. At higher temperatures, corresponding to the onset of effusion, the Raman spectra show a clustering of the sp2 phase. The density of states of ta-C:H is directly measured using scanning tunnelling spectroscopy. The measured gradients of the conduction and valence band tails increase up to 300 °C, confirming the occurrence of band tail sharpening. Examination of the photoluminescence background in the Raman spectra shows an increase in photoluminescence intensity with decreasing defect density, providing evidence that paramagnetic defects are the dominant non-radiative recombination centres in ta-C:H.

Carbon based bottom gate thin film transistor

This paper describes the fabrication and characterization of a carbon based, bottom gate, thin film transistor (TFT). The active layer is formed from highly sp2 bonded nitrogenated amorphous carbon (a-C:N) which is deposited at room temperature using a filtered cathodic vacuum arc technique. The TFT shows p-channel operation. The device exhibits a threshold voltage of 15 V and a field effect mobility of 10-4 cm2 V-1 s-1 . The valence band tail of a-C:N is observed to be much shallower than that of a-Si:H, but does not appear to severely impede the shift of the Fermi level. This may indicate that a significant proportion of the a-C tail states can still contribute to conduction.

Active steering of a tractor-semi-trailer

This paper develops a path-following steering control strategy for an articulated heavy goods vehicle. The controller steers the axles of the semi-trailer so that its rear end follows the path of the fifth wheel coupling: for all paths and all speeds. This substantially improves low-speed manoeuvrability, off-tracking, and tyre scrubbing (wear). It also increases high-speed stability, reduces 'rearward amplification', and reduces the propensity to roll over in high-speed transient manoeuvres. The design of a novel experimental heavy goods vehicle with three independent hydraulically actuated steering axles is presented. The path-following controller is tested on the experimental vehicle, at low and high speeds. The field test results are compared with vehicle simulations and found to agree well. The benefits of this steering control approach are quantified. In a low-speed 'roundabout' manoeuvre, low-speed off-tracking was reduced by 73 per cent, from 4.25 m for a conventional vehicle to 1.15 m for the experimental vehicle; swept-path width was reduced by 2 m (28 per cent); peak scrubbing tyre forces were reduced by 83 per cent; and entry tail-swing was eliminated. In an 80 km/h lane-change manoeuvre, peak path error for the experimental vehicle was 33 per cent less than for the conventional vehicle, and rearward amplification of the trailer was 35 per cent less. Increasing the bandwidth of the steering actuators improved the high-speed dynamic performance of the vehicle, but at the expense of increased oil flow.

Improved models for drop-on-demand ink-jet shortening

A previous 1-D model for the shortening of an unbroken drop-on-demand ink-jet ligament has been extended to the case of an arbitrary attached tail mass, and can also include extensional viscosity (which has ∼ 2% effect) as well as linear elasticity in the fluid. Predictions from the improved model are shown to be very similar to results from 2-D axisymmetric numerical simulations of DoD ink-jet ligaments and also to the results of recent experiments on Newtonian fluids jetted without satellite formation.

Experimental study into the flow physics of three-dimensional shock control bumps

This paper describes a fundamental experimental study of the flow structure around a single three-dimensional (3D) transonic shock control bump (SCB) mounted on a flat surface in a wind tunnel. Tests have been carried out with a Mach 1.3 normal shock wave located at a number of streamwise positions relative to the SCB. Details of the flow have been studied using the experimental techniques of schlieren photography, surface oil flow visualization, pressure sensitive paint, and laser Doppler anemometry. The results of the work build on the findings of previous researchers and shed new light on the flow physics of 3D SCBs. It is found that spanwise pressure gradients across the SCB ramp and the shape of the SCB sides affect the magnitude and uniformity of flow turning generated by the bump, which can impact on the spanwise propagation of the quasi-two-dimensional (2D) shock structure produced by a 3DSCB. At the bump crest, vortices can form if the pressure on the crest is significantly lower than at either side of the bump. The trajectories of these vortices, which are relatively weak, are strongly influenced by any spanwise pressure gradients across the bump tail. Asignificant difference between 2D and 3D SCBs highlighted by the study is the impact of spanwise pressure gradients on 3D SCB performance. The magnitude of these spanwise pressure gradients is determined largely by SCB geometry and shock position. Copyright © 2011 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

Probability-Matching Predictors for Extreme Extremes

A location- and scale-invariant predictor is constructed which exhibits good probability matching for extreme predictions outside the span of data drawn from a variety of (stationary) general distributions. It is constructed via the three-parameter {\mu, \sigma, \xi} Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The predictor is designed to provide matching probability exactly for the GPD in both the extreme heavy-tailed limit and the extreme bounded-tail limit, whilst giving a good approximation to probability matching at all intermediate values of the tail parameter \xi. The predictor is valid even for small sample sizes N, even as small as N = 3. The main purpose of this paper is to present the somewhat lengthy derivations which draw heavily on the theory of hypergeometric functions, particularly the Lauricella functions. Whilst the construction is inspired by the Bayesian approach to the prediction problem, it considers the case of vague prior information about both parameters and model, and all derivations are undertaken using sampling theory.

Joint experimental and numerical approach to three-dimensional shock control bump research

Previous studies of transonic shock control bumps have often been either numerical or experimental. Comparisons between the two have been hampered by the limitations of either approach. The present work aims to bridge the gap between computational fluid dynamics and experiment by planning a joint approach from the outset. This enables high-quality validation data to be produced and ensures that the conclusions of either aspect of the study are directly relevant to the application. Experiments conducted with bumps mounted on the floor of a blowdown tunnel were modified to include an additional postshock adverse pressure gradient through the use of a diffuser as well as introducing boundary-layer suction ahead of the test section to enable the in-flow boundary layer to be manipulated. This has the advantage of being an inexpensive and highly repeatable method. Computations were performed on a standard airfoil model, with the flight conditions as free parameters. The experimental and computational setups were then tuned to produce baseline conditions that agree well, enabling confidence that the experimental conclusions are relevant. The methods are then applied to two different shock control bumps: a smoothly contoured bump, representative of previous studies, and a novel extended geometry featuring a continuously widening tail, which spans the wind-tunnel width at the rear of the bump. Comparison between the computational and experimental results for the contour bump showed good agreement both with respect to the flow structures and quantitative analysis of the boundary-layer parameters. It was seen that combining the experimental and numerical data could provide valuable insight into the flow physics, which would not generally be possible for a one-sided approach. The experiments and computational fluid dynamics were also seen to agree well for the extended bump geometry, providing evidence that, even though thebumpinteracts directly with the wind-tunnel walls, it was still possible to observe the key flow physics. The joint approach is thus suitable even for wider bump geometries. Copyright © 2013 by S. P. Colliss, H. Babinsky, K. Nubler, and T. Lutz. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

A thermalization energy analysis of the threshold voltage shift in amorphous indium gallium zinc oxide thin film transistors under simultaneous negative gate bias and illumination

It has been previously observed that thin film transistors (TFTs) utilizing an amorphous indium gallium zinc oxide (a-IGZO) semiconducting channel suffer from a threshold voltage shift when subjected to a negative gate bias and light illumination simultaneously. In this work, a thermalization energy analysis has been applied to previously published data on negative bias under illumination stress (NBIS) in a-IGZO TFTs. A barrier to defect conversion of 0.65-0.75 eV is extracted, which is consistent with reported energies of oxygen vacancy migration. The attempt-to-escape frequency is extracted to be 10 6-107 s-1, which suggests a weak localization of carriers in band tail states over a 20-40 nm distance. Models for the NBIS mechanism based on charge trapping are reviewed and a defect pool model is proposed in which two distinct distributions of defect states exist in the a-IGZO band gap: these are associated with states that are formed as neutrally charged and 2+ charged oxygen vacancies at the time of film formation. In this model, threshold voltage shift is not due to a defect creation process, but to a change in the energy distribution of states in the band gap upon defect migration as this allows a state formed as a neutrally charged vacancy to be converted into one formed as a 2+ charged vacancy and vice versa. Carrier localization close to the defect migration site is necessary for the conversion process to take place, and such defect migration sites are associated with conduction and valence band tail states. Under negative gate bias stressing, the conduction band tail is depleted of carriers, but the bias is insufficient to accumulate holes in the valence band tail states, and so no threshold voltage shift results. It is only under illumination that the quasi Fermi level for holes is sufficiently lowered to allow occupation of valence band tail states. The resulting charge localization then allows a negative threshold voltage shift, but only under conditions of simultaneous negative gate bias and illumination, as observed experimentally as the NBIS effect. © 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.