An approach to scenario analysis of the sustainability of an industrial sector applied to clothing and textiles in the UK

Companies aiming to be 'sustainability leaders' in their sector and governments wanting to support their ambitions need a means to assess the changes required to make a significant difference in the impact of their whole sector. Previous work on scenario analysis/scenario planning demonstrates extensive developments and applications, but as yet few attempts to integrate the 'triple bottom line' concerns of sustainability into scenario planning exercises. This paper, therefore, presents a methodology for scenario analysis of large change to an entire sector. The approach includes calculation of a 'triple bottom line graphic equaliser' to allow exploration and evaluation of the trade-offs between economic, environmental and social impacts. The methodology is applied to the UK's clothing and textiles sector, and results from the study of the sector are summarised. In reflecting on the specific study, some suggestions are made about future application of a similar methodology, including a template of candidate solutions that may lead to significant reduction in impacts. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Futures perspectives for manufacturing

This paper introduces a new approach to the capture, structuring and analysis of results from five national manufacturing Foresight exercises, and illustrates how such tools can help to integrate futures studies and strategy formulation.

Design support for turbomachinery

From the steam turbines which provide most of our electricity to the jet engines which have shrunk our World, turbomachines undoubtedly play a major role in life today. Competition in the turbomachinery industry is fiercely strong [Wisler, 1998], hence good aerodynamic design is vital. However, with efficiency levels already close to their theoretical maxima, companies are increasingly looking to reduce costs and increase reliability through improved design practice. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) can make a strong contribution to assisting this process as it has the potential to increase performance while reducing cost. The situation is, however, complicated by an ever decreasing number of engineers with sufficient design experience to reap the full benefits offered by CFD. With the large risks involved, novice designers of today are increasingly confined to refining old designs rather than gaining experience, like their forebears, through 'clean sheet' exercises. Hence it is desirable to capture the knowledge and experience of older designers, before it is lost, to assist the engineers of tomorrow. It is therefore the aim of this project to produce a design support tool which will not only store the appropriate CFD codes, but also provide a dynamic signpost (based on elicited knowledge and experience) to advise the engineer in their use. The signposting methodology developed for the aerospace industry [Clarkson and Hamilton, 1997] will provide the basic framework for the tool. This paper reviews current turbomachinery design practice (including an examination of the relevant CFD) in order to establish the important issues which a support tool must address. Current design support methodologies and their propriety are then reviewed, followed by a detailed description of the signposting concept. It then sets out a clear statement of the objectives for the research and the methods proposed to meet them. The paper concludes with a timetable of the work.

Modelling of long-term ground response to tunnelling under St James's Park, London

Following a tunnel excavation in low-permeability soil, it is commonly observed that the ground surface continues to settle and ground loading on the tunnel lining changes, as the pore pressures in the ground approach a new equilibrium condition. The monitored ground response following the tunnelling under St James's Park, London, shows that the mechanism of subsurface deformation is composed of three different zones: swelling, consolidation and rigid body movement. The swelling took place in a confined zone above the tunnel crown, extending vertically to approximately 5 m above it. On the sides of the tunnel, the consolidation of the soil occurred in the zone primarily within the tunnel horizon, from the shoulder to just beneath the invert, and extending laterally to a large offset from the tunnel centreline. Above these swelling and consolidation zones the soil moved downward as a rigid body. In this study, soil-fluid coupled three-dimensional finite element analyses were performed to simulate the mechanism of long-term ground response monitored at St James's Park. An advanced critical state soil model, which can simulate the behaviour of London Clay in both drained and undrained conditions, was adopted for the analyses. The analysis results are discussed and compared with the field monitoring data. It is found that the observed mechanism of long-term subsurface ground and tunnel lining response at St James's Park can be simulated accurately only when stiffness anisotropy, the variation of permeability between different units within the London Clay and non-uniform drainage conditions for the tunnel lining are considered. This has important implications for future prediction of the long-term behaviour of tunnels in clays.

Short- and long-term changes in joint co-contraction associated with motor learning as revealed from surface EMG.

In the field of motor control, two hypotheses have been controversial: whether the brain acquires internal models that generate accurate motor commands, or whether the brain avoids this by using the viscoelasticity of musculoskeletal system. Recent observations on relatively low stiffness during trained movements support the existence of internal models. However, no study has revealed the decrease in viscoelasticity associated with learning that would imply improvement of internal models as well as synergy between the two hypothetical mechanisms. Previously observed decreases in electromyogram (EMG) might have other explanations, such as trajectory modifications that reduce joint torques. To circumvent such complications, we required strict trajectory control and examined only successful trials having identical trajectory and torque profiles. Subjects were asked to perform a hand movement in unison with a target moving along a specified and unusual trajectory, with shoulder and elbow in the horizontal plane at the shoulder level. To evaluate joint viscoelasticity during the learning of this movement, we proposed an index of muscle co-contraction around the joint (IMCJ). The IMCJ was defined as the summation of the absolute values of antagonistic muscle torques around the joint and computed from the linear relation between surface EMG and joint torque. The IMCJ during isometric contraction, as well as during movements, was confirmed to correlate well with joint stiffness estimated using the conventional method, i.e., applying mechanical perturbations. Accordingly, the IMCJ during the learning of the movement was computed for each joint of each trial using estimated EMG-torque relationship. At the same time, the performance error for each trial was specified as the root mean square of the distance between the target and hand at each time step over the entire trajectory. The time-series data of IMCJ and performance error were decomposed into long-term components that showed decreases in IMCJ in accordance with learning with little change in the trajectory and short-term interactions between the IMCJ and performance error. A cross-correlation analysis and impulse responses both suggested that higher IMCJs follow poor performances, and lower IMCJs follow good performances within a few successive trials. Our results support the hypothesis that viscoelasticity contributes more when internal models are inaccurate, while internal models contribute more after the completion of learning. It is demonstrated that the CNS regulates viscoelasticity on a short- and long-term basis depending on performance error and finally acquires smooth and accurate movements while maintaining stability during the entire learning process.

Adaptive control of stiffness to stabilize hand position with large loads.

The goal of this work was to investigate stability in relation to the magnitude and direction of forces applied by the hand. The endpoint stiffness and joint stiffness of the arm were measured during a postural task in which subjects exerted up to 30% maximum voluntary force in each of four directions while controlling the position of the hand. All four coefficients of the joint stiffness matrix were found to vary linearly with both elbow and shoulder torque. This contrasts with the results of a previous study, which employed a force control task and concluded that the joint stiffness coefficients varied linearly with either shoulder or elbow torque but not both. Joint stiffness was transformed into endpoint stiffness to compare the effect on stability as endpoint force increased. When the joint stiffness coefficients were modeled as varying with the net torque at only one joint, as in the previous study, we found that hand position became unstable if endpoint force exceeded about 22 N in a specific direction. This did not occur when the joint stiffness coefficients were modeled as varying with the net torque at both joints, as in the present study. Rather, hand position became increasingly more stable as endpoint force increased for all directions of applied force. Our analysis suggests that co-contraction of biarticular muscles was primarily responsible for the increased stability. This clearly demonstrates how the central nervous system can selectively adapt the impedance of the arm in a specific direction to stabilize hand position when the force applied by the hand has a destabilizing effect in that direction.