Assessing seasonal precipitation trends in India using parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques

This paper provides an insight into the long-term trends of the four seasonal and annual precipitations in various climatological regions and sub-regions in India. The trends were useful to investigate whether Indian seasonal rainfall is changing in terms of magnitude or location-wise. Trends were assessed over the period of 1954-2003 using parametric ordinary least square fits and non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The trend significance was tested at the 95% confidence level. Apart from the trends for individual climatological regions in India and the average for the whole of India, trends were also specifically determined for the possible smaller geographical areas in order to understand how different the trends would be from the bigger spatial scales. The smaller geographical regions consist of the whole southwestern continental state of Kerala. It was shown that there are decreasing trends in the spring and monsoon rainfall and increasing trends in the autumn and winter rainfalls. These changes are not always homogeneous over various regions, even in the very short scales implying a careful regional analysis would be necessary for drawing conclusions regarding agro-ecological or other local projects requiring change in rainfall information. Furthermore, the differences between the trend magnitudes and directions from the two different methods are significantly small and fall well within the significance limit for all the cases investigated in Indian regions (except where noted). © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

A dynamic model to predict the occurrence of skidding in wind-turbine bearings

Despite use of the best in current design practices, high-speed shaft (HSS) bearings, in a wind-turbine gearbox, continue to exhibit a high rate of premature failure. As HSS bearings operate under low loads and high speeds, these bearings are prone to skidding. However, most of the existing methods for analyzing skidding are quasi-static in nature and cannot be used to study dynamic operating conditions. This paper proposes a dynamic model, which includes gyroscopic and centrifugal effects, to study the skidding characteristics of angular-contact ball-bearings. Traction forces between rolling-elements and raceways are obtained using elastohydrodynamic (EHD) lubrication theory. Underlying gross-sliding mechanisms for pure axial loads, and combined radial and axial loads are also studied. The proposed model will enable engineers to improve bearing reliability at the design stage, by estimating the amount of skidding. © 2011 Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Co-occurrence flow for pedestrian detection

The last few years have seen considerable progress in pedestrian detection. Recent work has established a combination of oriented gradients and optic flow as effective features although the detection rates are still unsatisfactory for practical use. This paper introduces a new type of motion feature, the co-occurrence flow (CoF). The advance is to capture relative movements of different parts of the entire body, unlike existing motion features which extract internal motion in a local fashion. Through evaluations on the TUD-Brussels pedestrian dataset, we show that our motion feature based on co-occurrence flow contributes to boost the performance of existing methods. © 2011 IEEE.

Phase synchronization between stratospheric and tropospheric quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations

A combination of singular systems analysis and analytic phase techniques are used to investigate the possible occurrence in observations of coherent synchronization between quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations (QBOs; SAOs) in the stratosphere and troposphere. Time series of zonal mean zonal winds near the Equator are analysed from the ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis datasets over a ∼ 50-year period. In the stratosphere, the QBO is found to synchronize with the SAO almost all the time, but with a frequency ratio that changes erratically between 4:1, 5:1 and 6:1. A similar variable synchronization is also evident in the tropical troposphere between semi-annual and quasi-biennial cycles (known as TBOs). Mean zonal winds from ERA-40 and ERA-interim, and also time series of indices for the Indian and West Pacific monsoons, are commonly found to exhibit synchronization, with SAO/TBO ratios that vary between 4:1 and 7:1. Coherent synchronization between the QBO and tropical TBO does not appear to persist for long intervals, however. This suggests that both the QBO and tropical TBOs may be separately synchronized to SAOs that are themselves enslaved to the seasonal cycle, or to the annual cycle itself. However, the QBO and TBOs are evidently only weakly coupled between themselves and are frequently found to lose mutual coherence when each changes its frequency ratio to its respective SAO. This suggests a need to revise a commonly cited paradigm that advocates the use of stratospheric QBO indices as a predictor for tropospheric phenomena such as monsoons and hurricanes. © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.