On the use of predictor-corrector method for coupled Monte Carlo burnup codes

This paper investigates the effect of the burnup coupling scheme on the numerical stability and accuracy of coupled Monte-Carlo depletion calculations. We show that in some cases, even the Predictor Corrector method with relatively short time steps can be numerically unstable. In addition, we present two possible extensions to the Euler predictor-corrector (PC) method, which is typically used in coupled burnup calculations. These modifications allow using longer time steps, while maintaining numerical stability and accuracy. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical stability of the predictor-corrector method in Monte Carlo burnup calculations of critical reactors

Monte Carlo burnup codes use various schemes to solve the coupled criticality and burnup equations. Previous studies have shown that the simplest methods, such as the beginning-of-step and middle-of-step constant flux approximations, are numerically unstable in fuel cycle calculations of critical reactors. Here we show that even the predictor-corrector methods that are implemented in established Monte Carlo burnup codes can be numerically unstable in cycle calculations of large systems. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Transient growth and triggering in the horizontal Rijke tube Matthew

This theoretical paper examines a non-normal and non-linear model of a horizontal Rijke tube. Linear and non-linear optimal initial states, which maximize acoustic energy growth over a given time from a given energy, are calculated. It is found that non-linearity and non-normality both contribute to transient growth and that, for this model, linear optimal states are only a good predictor of non-linear optimal states for low initial energies. Two types of non-linear optimal initial state are found. The first has strong energy growth during the first period of the fundamental mode but loses energy thereafter. The second has weaker energy growth during the first period but retains high energy for longer. The second type causes triggering to self-sustained oscillations from lower energy than the first and has higher energy in the fundamental mode. This suggests, for instance, that low frequency noise will be more effective at causing triggering than high frequency noise.

A simple prediction model for asphalt surface texture incorporating mix gradation and air voids

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study that seeks to show how asphalt grading and air voids are related to the texture depth of asphalt. The fiftieth percentile particle size (D50) is shown to be a good predictor of texture depth measurements from a collected database of field and laboratory studies. The D50 is used to normalise collected texture data and this 'relative texture' is shown to correlate with air voids. Regression analyses confirm that air voids should be included along with a measure of gradation in the interpretation of asphalt surface texture.The derived formulae are used to develop correlation charts.

Ranking binder creep performance using the arrb elastometer

This paper discusses a laboratory study used to characterize bituminous binders based on their dynamic creep resistance. Laboratory testing using four different loading regimes on asphalt mixes with six different bituminous binders was undertaken. Creep cycles to 2% accumulated strain were used to define the creep resistance of the asphalt mixes with the various binders. Underlying viscosities of the bitumens were derived using the Australian Road Research Board (ARRB) Elastometer. Marshall stability was measured on the specimens that were prepared using gyratory compaction. Regression plots were prepared that link creep resistance, underlying viscosity, and Marshall stability. It was found that the ARRB Elastometer is able to measure underlying viscosity, which is a reasonable predictor of dynamic creep resistance. Marshall stability was also shown to be a good indicator of dynamic creep resistance. Therefore, simpler tests such as Marshall stability and Elastometer can be used to rank bituminous materials for asphalt mix design purposes in the laboratory. © 2010 ASCE.

Phase synchronization between stratospheric and tropospheric quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations

A combination of singular systems analysis and analytic phase techniques are used to investigate the possible occurrence in observations of coherent synchronization between quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations (QBOs; SAOs) in the stratosphere and troposphere. Time series of zonal mean zonal winds near the Equator are analysed from the ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis datasets over a ∼ 50-year period. In the stratosphere, the QBO is found to synchronize with the SAO almost all the time, but with a frequency ratio that changes erratically between 4:1, 5:1 and 6:1. A similar variable synchronization is also evident in the tropical troposphere between semi-annual and quasi-biennial cycles (known as TBOs). Mean zonal winds from ERA-40 and ERA-interim, and also time series of indices for the Indian and West Pacific monsoons, are commonly found to exhibit synchronization, with SAO/TBO ratios that vary between 4:1 and 7:1. Coherent synchronization between the QBO and tropical TBO does not appear to persist for long intervals, however. This suggests that both the QBO and tropical TBOs may be separately synchronized to SAOs that are themselves enslaved to the seasonal cycle, or to the annual cycle itself. However, the QBO and TBOs are evidently only weakly coupled between themselves and are frequently found to lose mutual coherence when each changes its frequency ratio to its respective SAO. This suggests a need to revise a commonly cited paradigm that advocates the use of stratospheric QBO indices as a predictor for tropospheric phenomena such as monsoons and hurricanes. © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

Two-orbit switch-pitch structures

The Hoberman 'switch-pitch ' ball is a transformable structure with a single folding and unfolding path. The underlying cubic structure has a novel mechanism that retains tetrahedral symmetry during folding. Here, we propose a generalized class of structures of a similar type that retain their full symmetry during folding. The key idea is that we require two orbits of nodes for the structure: within each orbit, any node can be copied to any other node by a symmetry operation. Each member is connected to two nodes, which may be in different orbits, by revolute joints. We will describe the symmetry analysis that reveals the symmetry of the internal mechanism modes for a switch-pitch structure. To follow the complete folding path of the structure, a nonlinear iterative predictor-corrector algorithm based on the Newton method is adopted. First, a simple tetrahedral example of the class of two-orbit structures is presented. Typical configurations along the folding path are shown. Larger members of the class of structures are also presented, all with cubic symmetry. These switch-pitch structures could have useful applications as deployable structures.

Visual search near threshold: Some features are more equal than others.

While searching for objects, we combine information from multiple visual modalities. Classical theories of visual search assume that features are processed independently prior to an integration stage. Based on this, one would predict that features that are equally discriminable in single feature search should remain so in conjunction search. We test this hypothesis by examining whether search accuracy in feature search predicts accuracy in conjunction search. Subjects searched for objects combining color and orientation or size; eye movements were recorded. Prior to the main experiment, we matched feature discriminability, making sure that in feature search, 70% of saccades were likely to go to the correct target stimulus. In contrast to this symmetric single feature discrimination performance, the conjunction search task showed an asymmetry in feature discrimination performance: In conjunction search, a similar percentage of saccades went to the correct color as in feature search but much less often to correct orientation or size. Therefore, accuracy in feature search is a good predictor of accuracy in conjunction search for color but not for size and orientation. We propose two explanations for the presence of such asymmetries in conjunction search: the use of conjunctively tuned channels and differential crowding effects for different features.

Human pavlovian-instrumental transfer.

The vigor with which a participant performs actions that produce valuable outcomes is subject to a complex set of motivational influences. Many of these are believed to involve the amygdala and the nucleus accumbens, which act as an interface between limbic and motor systems. One prominent class of influences is called pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT), in which the motivational characteristics of a predictor influence the vigor of an action with respect to which it is formally completely independent. We provide a demonstration of behavioral PIT in humans, with an audiovisual predictor of the noncontingent delivery of money inducing participants to perform more avidly an action involving squeezing a handgrip to earn money. Furthermore, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we show that this enhanced motivation was associated with a trial-by-trial correlation with the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal in the nucleus accumbens and a subject-by-subject correlation with the BOLD signal in the amygdala. Our data dovetails well with the animal literature and sheds light on the neural control of vigor.

N-gram posterior probability confidence measures for statistical machine translation: An empirical study

We report an empirical study of n-gram posterior probability confidence measures for statistical machine translation (SMT). We first describe an efficient and practical algorithm for rapidly computing n-gram posterior probabilities from large translation word lattices. These probabilities are shown to be a good predictor of whether or not the n-gram is found in human reference translations, motivating their use as a confidence measure for SMT. Comprehensive n-gram precision and word coverage measurements are presented for a variety of different language pairs, domains and conditions. We analyze the effect on reference precision of using single or multiple references, and compare the precision of posteriors computed from k-best lists to those computed over the full evidence space of the lattice. We also demonstrate improved confidence by combining multiple lattices in a multi-source translation framework. © 2012 The Author(s).