Evaluating the impacts of iteration on PD processes by transforming task network models into System Dynamics models

Iteration is unavoidable in the design process and should be incorporated when planning and managing projects in order to minimize surprises and reduce schedule distortions. However, planning and managing iteration is challenging because the relationships between its causes and effects are complex. Most approaches which use mathematical models to analyze the impact of iteration on the design process focus on a relatively small number of its causes and effects. Therefore, insights derived from these analytical models may not be robust under a broader consideration of potential influencing factors. In this article, we synthesize an explanatory framework which describes the network of causes and effects of iteration identified from the literature, and introduce an analytic approach which combines a task network modeling approach with System Dynamics simulation. Our approach models the network of causes and effects of iteration alongside the process architecture which is required to analyze the impact of iteration on design process performance. We show how this allows managers to assess the impact of changes to process architecture and to management levers which influence iterative behavior, accounting for the fact that these changes can occur simultaneously and can accumulate in non-linear ways. We also discuss how the insights resulting from this analysis can be visualized for easier consumption by project participants not familiar with simulation methods. Copyright © 2010 by ASME.

Perceptual learning, roving and the unsupervised bias

Perceptual learning improves perception through training. Perceptual learning improves with most stimulus types but fails when . certain stimulus types are mixed during training (roving). This result is surprising because classical supervised and unsupervised neural network models can cope easily with roving conditions. What makes humans so inferior compared to these models? As experimental and conceptual work has shown, human perceptual learning is neither supervised nor unsupervised but reward-based learning. Reward-based learning suffers from the so-called unsupervised bias, i.e., to prevent synaptic " drift" , the . average reward has to be exactly estimated. However, this is impossible when two or more stimulus types with different rewards are presented during training (and the reward is estimated by a running average). For this reason, we propose no learning occurs in roving conditions. However, roving hinders perceptual learning only for combinations of similar stimulus types but not for dissimilar ones. In this latter case, we propose that a critic can estimate the reward for each stimulus type separately. One implication of our analysis is that the critic cannot be located in the visual system. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Preliminary model development for predicting strength and stiffness of cement-stabilized soils using artificial neural networks

This paper presents ongoing work on data collection and collation from a large number of laboratory cement-stabilization projects worldwide. The aim is to employ Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to establish relationships between variables, which define the properties of cement-stabilized soils, and the two parameters determined by the Unconfined Compression Test, the Unconfined Compressive Strength (UCS), and stiffness, using E50 calculated from UCS results. Bayesian predictive neural network models are developed to predict the UCS values of cement-stabilized inorganic clays/silts, as well as sands as a function of selected soil mix variables, such as grain size distribution, water content, cement content and curing time. A model which can predict the stiffness values of cement-stabilized clays/silts is also developed and compared to the UCS model. The UCS model results emulate known trends better and provide more accurate estimates than the results from the E50 stiffness model. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Paraphrastic language models and combination with neural network language models

In natural languages multiple word sequences can represent the same underlying meaning. Only modelling the observed surface word sequence can result in poor context coverage, for example, when using n-gram language models (LM). To handle this issue, paraphrastic LMs were proposed in previous research and successfully applied to a US English conversational telephone speech transcription task. In order to exploit the complementary characteristics of paraphrastic LMs and neural network LMs (NNLM), the combination between the two is investigated in this paper. To investigate paraphrastic LMs' generalization ability to other languages, experiments are conducted on a Mandarin Chinese broadcast speech transcription task. Using a paraphrastic multi-level LM modelling both word and phrase sequences, significant error rate reductions of 0.9% absolute (9% relative) and 0.5% absolute (5% relative) were obtained over the baseline n-gram and NNLM systems respectively, after a combination with word and phrase level NNLMs. © 2013 IEEE.

The design of an agent for modelling supply chain network dynamics

A useful insight into managerial decision making can be found from simulation of business systems, but existing work on simulation of supply chain behaviour has largely considered non-competitive chains. Where competitive agents have been examined, they have generally had a simple structure and been used for fundamental examination of stability and equilibria rather than providing practical guidance to managers. In this paper, a new agent for the study of competitive supply chain network dynamics is proposed. The novel features of the agent include the ability to select between competing vendors, distribute orders preferentially among many customers, manage production and inventory, and determine price based on competitive behaviour. The structure of the agent is related to existing business models and sufficient details are provided to allow implementation. The agent is tested to demonstrate that it recreates the main results of the existing modelling and management literature on supply chain dynamics. A brief exploration of competitive dynamics is given to confirm that the proposed agent can respond to competition. The results demonstrate that overall profitability for a supply chain network is maximised when businesses operate collectively. It is possible for an individual business to achieve higher profits by adopting a more competitive stance, but the consequence of this is that the overall profitability of the network is reduced. The agent will be of use for a broad range of studies on the long-run effect of management decisions on their network of suppliers and customers.