Dynamic Covariance Models for Multivariate Financial Time Series

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

Stable multivariate rational interpolation for parameter-dependent aerospace models

A multivariate, robust, rational interpolation method for propagating uncertainties in several dimensions is presented. The algorithm for selecting numerator and denominator polynomial orders is based on recent work that uses a singular value decomposition approach. In this paper we extend this algorithm to higher dimensions and demonstrate its efficacy in terms of convergence and accuracy, both as a method for response suface generation and interpolation. To obtain stable approximants for continuous functions, we use an L2 error norm indicator to rank optimal numerator and denominator solutions. For discontinous functions, a second criterion setting an upper limit on the approximant value is employed. Analytical examples demonstrate that, for the same stencil, rational methods can yield more rapid convergence compared to pseudospectral or collocation approaches for certain problems. © 2012 AIAA.