The role of androgens in fetal growth: observational study in two genetic models of disordered androgen signalling.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of androgens on birth weight in genetic models of altered androgen signalling. SETTING: Cambridge Disorders of Sex Development (DSD) database and the Swedish national screening programme for congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH). PATIENTS: (1) 29 girls with XY karyotype and mutation positive complete androgen insensitivity syndrome (CAIS); (2) 43 girls and 30 boys with genotype confirmed CAH. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Birth weight, birth weight-for-gestational-age (birth weight standard deviation score (SDS)) calculated by comparison with national references. RESULTS: Mean birth weight SDS in CAIS XY infants was higher than the reference for girls (mean, 95% CI: 0.4, 0.1 to 0.7; p=0.02) and was similar to the national reference for boys (0.1, -0.2 to 0.4). Birth weight SDS in CAH girls was similar to the national reference for girls (0.0, -0.2 to 0.2) and did not vary by severity of gene mutation. Birth weight SDS in CAH boys was also similar to the national reference for boys (0.2, -0.2 to 0.6). CONCLUSION: CAIS XY infants have a birth weight distribution similar to normal male infants and birth weight is not increased in infants with CAH. Alterations in androgen signalling have little impact on birth weight. Sex dimorphism in birth size is unrelated to prenatal androgen exposure.

Sequential Monte Carlo computation of the score and observed information matrix in state-space models with application to parameter estimation

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are popular computational tools for Bayesian inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. For this class of models, we propose SMC algorithms to compute the score vector and observed information matrix recursively in time. We propose two different SMC implementations, one with computational complexity $\mathcal{O}(N)$ and the other with complexity $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ where $N$ is the number of importance sampling draws. Although cheaper, the performance of the $\mathcal{O}(N)$ method degrades quickly in time as it inherently relies on the SMC approximation of a sequence of probability distributions whose dimension is increasing linearly with time. In particular, even under strong \textit{mixing} assumptions, the variance of the estimates computed with the $\mathcal{O}(N)$ method increases at least quadratically in time. The $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ is a non-standard SMC implementation that does not suffer from this rapid degrade. We then show how both methods can be used to perform batch and recursive parameter estimation.