Gaussian process volatility model

The prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the evolution of the variance. Moreover, functional parameters are usually learned by maximum likelihood, which can lead to over-fitting. To address these problems we introduce GP-Vol, a novel non-parametric model for time-changing variances based on Gaussian Processes. This new model can capture highly flexible functional relationships for the variances. Furthermore, we introduce a new online algorithm for fast inference in GP-Vol. This method is much faster than current offline inference procedures and it avoids overfitting problems by following a fully Bayesian approach. Experiments with financial data show that GP-Vol performs significantly better than current standard alternatives.

Nonparametric Bayesian Density Modeling with Gaussian Processes

We present the Gaussian process density sampler (GPDS), an exchangeable generative model for use in nonparametric Bayesian density estimation. Samples drawn from the GPDS are consistent with exact, independent samples from a distribution defined by a density that is a transformation of a function drawn from a Gaussian process prior. Our formulation allows us to infer an unknown density from data using Markov chain Monte Carlo, which gives samples from the posterior distribution over density functions and from the predictive distribution on data space. We describe two such MCMC methods. Both methods also allow inference of the hyperparameters of the Gaussian process.

Two-dimensional Cartesian air-gap element (CAGE) for dynamic finite-element modeling of electrical machines with a flat air gap

This paper extends the air-gap element (AGE) to enable the modeling of flat air gaps. AGE is a macroelement originally proposed by Abdel-Razek et al.for modeling annular air gaps in electrical machines. The paper presents the theory of the new macroelement and explains its implementation within a time-stepped finite-element (FE) code. It validates the solution produced by the new macroelement by comparing it with that obtained by using an FE mesh with a discretized air gap. It then applies the model to determine the open-circuit electromotive force of an axial-flux permanent-magnet machine and compares the results with measurements.

Turbulence modeling for flows around convex features giving rapid eddy distortion

Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes model performances in the stagnation and wake regions for turbulent flows with relatively large Lagrangian length scales (generally larger than the scale of geometrical features) approaching small cylinders (both square and circular) is explored. The effective cylinder (or wire) diameter based Reynolds number, ReW ≤ 2.5 × 103. The following turbulence models are considered: a mixing-length; standard Spalart and Allmaras (SA) and streamline curvature (and rotation) corrected SA (SARC); Secundov's νt-92; Secundov et al.'s two equation νt-L; Wolfshtein's k-l model; the Explicit Algebraic Stress Model (EASM) of Abid et al.; the cubic model of Craft et al.; various linear k-ε models including those with wall distance based damping functions; Menter SST, k-ω and Spalding's LVEL model. The use of differential equation distance functions (Poisson and Hamilton-Jacobi equation based) for palliative turbulence modeling purposes is explored. The performance of SA with these distance functions is also considered in the sharp convex geometry region of an airfoil trailing edge. For the cylinder, with ReW ≈ 2.5 × 103 the mixing length and k-l models give strong turbulence production in the wake region. However, in agreement with eddy viscosity estimates, the LVEL and Secundov νt-92 models show relatively little cylinder influence on turbulence. On the other hand, two equation models (as does the one equation SA) suggest the cylinder gives a strong turbulence deficit in the wake region. Also, for SA, an order or magnitude cylinder diameter decrease from ReW = 2500 to 250 surprisingly strengthens the cylinder's disruptive influence. Importantly, results for ReW ≪ 250 are virtually identical to those for ReW = 250 i.e. no matter how small the cylinder/wire its influence does not, as it should, vanish. Similar tests for the Launder-Sharma k-ε, Menter SST and k-ω show, in accordance with physical reality, the cylinder's influence diminishing albeit slowly with size. Results suggest distance functions palliate the SA model's erroneous trait and improve its predictive performance in wire wake regions. Also, results suggest that, along the stagnation line, such functions improve the SA, mixing length, k-l and LVEL results. For the airfoil, with SA, the larger Poisson distance function increases the wake region turbulence levels by just under 5%. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.