A global assessment of manufacturing: Economic development, energy use, carbon emissions, and the potential for energy efficiency and materials recycling

We present in two parts an assessment of global manufacturing. In the first part, we review economic development, pollution, and carbon emissions from a country perspective, tracking the rise of China and other developing countries. The results show not only a rise in the economic fortunes of the newly industrializing nations, but also a significant rise in global pollution, particularly air pollution and CO2 emissions largely from coal use, which alter and even reverse previous global trends. In the second part, we change perspective and quantitatively evaluate two important technical strategies to reduce pollution and carbon emissions: energy efficiency and materials recycling. We subdivide the manufacturing sector on the basis of the five major subsectors that dominate energy use and carbon emissions: (a) iron and steel, (b) cement, (c) plastics, (d) paper, and (e) aluminum. The analysis identifies technical constraints on these strategies, but by combined and aggressive action, industry should be able to balance increases in demand with these technical improvements. The result would be high but relatively flat energy use and carbon emissions. The review closes by demonstrating the consequences of extrapolating trends in production and carbon emissions and suggesting two options for further environmental improvements, materials efficiency, and demand reduction. © 2013 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Roadmapping an emerging energy technology: An ex-ante examination of dimethyl ether development in China

Technology roadmapping has been used to strategise the development of energy technologies. However, there have been limited roadmapping applications that analyse the emergence of a new energy technology that then forms a new industry and propels broad-based low-carbon economic growth. This paper, therefore, attempts to develop a roadmapping framework by integrating the lifecycle analysis tool, in order to strategise the emergence of dimethyl ether, an alternative energy based on advanced engineering technologies such as carbon capture and storage. This paper compares two scenarios of dimethyl ether vs. diesel and finds that the superiority of dimethyl ether will not arise until 2030, when the complementary engineering technologies become available. This proposed framework can also be generalised to other clean energy industries, and we anticipate our paper will spark inspiration for roadmapping and strategising the 'right' technologies for the growth of Chinese energy industries. Copyright © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.