Probability-Matching Predictors for Extreme Extremes

A location- and scale-invariant predictor is constructed which exhibits good probability matching for extreme predictions outside the span of data drawn from a variety of (stationary) general distributions. It is constructed via the three-parameter {\mu, \sigma, \xi} Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The predictor is designed to provide matching probability exactly for the GPD in both the extreme heavy-tailed limit and the extreme bounded-tail limit, whilst giving a good approximation to probability matching at all intermediate values of the tail parameter \xi. The predictor is valid even for small sample sizes N, even as small as N = 3. The main purpose of this paper is to present the somewhat lengthy derivations which draw heavily on the theory of hypergeometric functions, particularly the Lauricella functions. Whilst the construction is inspired by the Bayesian approach to the prediction problem, it considers the case of vague prior information about both parameters and model, and all derivations are undertaken using sampling theory.

Generalized power method for sparse principal component analysis

In this paper we develop a new approach to sparse principal component analysis (sparse PCA). We propose two single-unit and two block optimization formulations of the sparse PCA problem, aimed at extracting a single sparse dominant principal component of a data matrix, or more components at once, respectively. While the initial formulations involve nonconvex functions, and are therefore computationally intractable, we rewrite them into the form of an optimization program involving maximization of a convex function on a compact set. The dimension of the search space is decreased enormously if the data matrix has many more columns (variables) than rows. We then propose and analyze a simple gradient method suited for the task. It appears that our algorithm has best convergence properties in the case when either the objective function or the feasible set are strongly convex, which is the case with our single-unit formulations and can be enforced in the block case. Finally, we demonstrate numerically on a set of random and gene expression test problems that our approach outperforms existing algorithms both in quality of the obtained solution and in computational speed. © 2010 Michel Journée, Yurii Nesterov, Peter Richtárik and Rodolphe Sepulchre.

Lyapunov functions for stable cascades and applications to global stabilization

This paper generalizes recent Lyapunov constructions for a cascade of two nonlinear systems, one of which is stable rather than asymptotically stable. A new cross-term construction in the Lyapunov function allows us to replace earlier growth conditions by a necessary boundedness condition. This method is instrumental in the global stabilization of feedforward systems, and new stabilization results are derived from the generalized construction.