Tomorrow's cities: a framework to assess urban resilience

Urbanisation is one of the great driving forces of the twenty-first century. Cities generate both productivity and creativity, and the benefits offered by high-density living and working contribute to sustainability. Cities comprise multiple components, forming both static and dynamic systems that are interconnected directly and indirectly on a number of levels. Bringing together large numbers of people within a complex system can lead to vulnerability from a wide range of hazards, threats and trends. The key to reducing this vulnerability is the identification of critical systems and determination of the implications of their failure and their interconnectivities with other systems. One emerging approach to these challenges focuses on building resilience – defined here as the degree to which a system can continue to function effectively in a changing environment. This paper puts forward a framework designed to help engineers, planners and designers to support cities in understanding the hazards, threats and trends that can make them vulnerable, and identify focus areas for building resilience into the systems, which allow it to function and prosper. Four case studies of cities whose resilience was tested by recent extreme weather events are presented, seeking to demonstrate the application of the proposed framework.

Designing for resilience: Using a Delphi study to identify resilience issues for hospital designs in a changing climate

Hospitals are facing a triple challenge - meeting mandatory climate change targets and refurbishing aging infrastructure while simultaneously providing quality of care. With the potential of more frequent disruptive weather events, a UK government-funded project was launched in 2009 to investigate practical strategies for the National Health Service to increase its resilience to climate change. This paper presents the process of defining resilience by using the Delphi method and demonstrates its applicability within healthcare design. A Delphi survey is nearing completion which has determined the significant resilience issues and temperature ranges for ideal and critical conditions. Our preliminary findings identified six priorities that lead towards increasing resilience. Using the Delphi method can be a useful tool in clarifying the focus for healthcare design considerations. Copyright © 2002-2012 The Design Society. All rights reserved.

The Bayesian view of extreme events

The Bayesian perspective of designing for the consequences of hazard is discussed. Structural engineers should be educated in Bayesian theory and its underlying philosophy, and about the centrality to the prediction problem of the predictive distribution. The primary contribution that Bayesianism can make to the debate about extreme possibilities is its clarification of the language of and thinking about risk. Frequentist methodologies are the wrong approach to the decisions that engineers need to make, decisions that involve assessments of abstract future possibilities based on incomplete and abstract information.

Porous materials for thermal management under extreme conditions

A brief analysis is presented of how heat transfer takes place in porous materials of various types. The emphasis is on materials able to withstand extremes of temperature, gas pressure, irradiation, etc., i.e. metals and ceramics, rather than polymers. A primary aim is commonly to maximize either the thermal resistance (i.e. provide insulation) or the rate of thermal equilibration between the material and a fluid passing through it (i.e. to facilitate heat exchange). The main structural characteristics concern porosity (void content), anisotropy, pore connectivity and scale. The effect of scale is complex, since the permeability decreases as the structure is refined, but the interfacial area for fluid-solid heat exchange is, thereby, raised. The durability of the pore structure may also be an issue, with a possible disadvantage of finer scale structures being poor microstructural stability under service conditions. Finally, good mechanical properties may be required, since the development of thermal gradients, high fluid fluxes, etc. can generate substantial levels of stress. There are, thus, some complex interplays between service conditions, pore architecture/scale, fluid permeation characteristics, convective heat flow, thermal conduction and radiative heat transfer. Such interplays are illustrated with reference to three examples: (i) a thermal barrier coating in a gas turbine engine; (ii) a Space Shuttle tile; and (iii) a Stirling engine heat exchanger. Highly porous, permeable materials are often made by bonding fibres together into a network structure and much of the analysis presented here is oriented towards such materials. © 2005 The Royal Society.