Simulating dynamic covariance structures for testing the adaptive behavior of variable selection algorithms (Invited Paper)

Variable selection for regression is a classical statistical problem, motivated by concerns that too large a number of covariates may bring about overfitting and unnecessarily high measurement costs. Novel difficulties arise in streaming contexts, where the correlation structure of the process may be drifting, in which case it must be constantly tracked so that selections may be revised accordingly. A particularly interesting phenomenon is that non-selected covariates become missing variables, inducing bias on subsequent decisions. This raises an intricate exploration-exploitation tradeoff, whose dependence on the covariance tracking algorithm and the choice of variable selection scheme is too complex to be dealt with analytically. We hence capitalise on the strength of simulations to explore this problem, taking the opportunity to tackle the difficult task of simulating dynamic correlation structures. © 2008 IEEE.

Fine scale structures from deformation of aluminium containing small alumina particles

Microstructures and mechanical properties have been studied in aluminium containing a fine dispersion of alumina particles, deformed by cold-rolling to strains between 1.4 and 3.5. The microstructure was characterised by TEM. The deformation structures evolved very rapidly, forming a nanostructured material, with fine subgrains about 0.2 μm in diameter and a fraction of high-angle boundaries which was already high at a strain of 1.4, but continued to increase with rolling strain. The yield stress and ductility of the rolled materials were measured in tension, and properties were similar for all materials. Yield stress measurements were correlated with estimates made using microstructural models. The role of small particles in forming and stabilising the deformation structure is discussed. This nanostructured cold-deformed alloy has mechanical properties which are usefully enhanced at comparatively low cost. This gives it, and similar particle-strengthened alloys, good potential for commercial exploitation. © 2002 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Independent component analysis of microarray data in the study of endometrial cancer.

Gene microarray technology is highly effective in screening for differential gene expression and has hence become a popular tool in the molecular investigation of cancer. When applied to tumours, molecular characteristics may be correlated with clinical features such as response to chemotherapy. Exploitation of the huge amount of data generated by microarrays is difficult, however, and constitutes a major challenge in the advancement of this methodology. Independent component analysis (ICA), a modern statistical method, allows us to better understand data in such complex and noisy measurement environments. The technique has the potential to significantly increase the quality of the resulting data and improve the biological validity of subsequent analysis. We performed microarray experiments on 31 postmenopausal endometrial biopsies, comprising 11 benign and 20 malignant samples. We compared ICA to the established methods of principal component analysis (PCA), Cyber-T, and SAM. We show that ICA generated patterns that clearly characterized the malignant samples studied, in contrast to PCA. Moreover, ICA improved the biological validity of the genes identified as differentially expressed in endometrial carcinoma, compared to those found by Cyber-T and SAM. In particular, several genes involved in lipid metabolism that are differentially expressed in endometrial carcinoma were only found using this method. This report highlights the potential of ICA in the analysis of microarray data.

Designing MPC controllers by reverse-engineering existing LTI controllers

This technical report presents a method for designing a constrained output-feedback model predictive controller (MPC) that behaves in the same way as an existing baseline stabilising linear time invariant output-feedback controller when constraints are inactive. The baseline controller is cast into an observer-compensator form and an inverse-optimal cost function is used as the basis of the MPC controller. The available degrees of design freedom are explored, and some guidelines provided for the selection of an appropriate observer-compensator realisation that will best allow exploitation of the constraint-handling and redundancy management capabilities of MPC. Consideration is given to output setpoint tracking, and the method is demonstrated with three different multivariable plants of varying complexity.

Exploiting variable-width features in large vocabulary speech recognition

The use of variable-width features (prosodics, broad structural information etc.) in large vocabulary speech recognition systems is discussed. Although the value of this sort of information has been recognized in the past, previous approaches have not been widely used in speech systems because either they have not been robust enough for realistic, large vocabulary tasks or they have been limited to certain recognizer architectures. A framework for the use of variable-width features is presented which employs the N-Best algorithm with the features being applied in a post-processing phase. The framework is flexible and widely applicable, giving greater scope for exploitation of the features than previous approaches. Large vocabulary speech recognition experiments using TIMIT show that the application of variable-width features has potential benefits.

Data structures and software tools for the computer aided design of control systems: a survey.

CAD software can be structured as a set of modular 'software tools' only if there is some agreement on the data structures which are to be passed between tools. Beyond this basic requirement, it is desirable to give the agreed structures the status of 'data types' in the language used for interactive design. The ultimate refinement is to have a data management capability which 'understands' how to manipulate such data types. In this paper the requirements of CACSD are formulated from the point of view of Database Management Systems. Progress towards meeting these requirements in both the DBMS and the CACSD community is reviewed. The conclusion reached is that there has been considerable movement towards the realisation of software tools for CACSD, but that this owes more to modern ideas about programming languages, than to DBMS developments. The DBMS field has identified some useful concepts, but further significant progress is expected to come from the exploitation of concepts such as object-oriented programming, logic programming, or functional programming.

Synchronization in climate dynamics and other extended systems

Synchronization is now well established as representing coherent behaviour between two or more otherwise autonomous nonlinear systems subject to some degree of coupling. Such behaviour has mainly been studied to date, however, in relatively low-dimensional discrete systems or networks. But the possibility of similar kinds of behaviour in continuous or extended spatiotemporal systems has many potential practical implications, especially in various areas of geophysics. We review here a range of cyclically varying phenomena within the Earth's climate system for which there may be some evidence or indication of the possibility of synchronized behaviour, albeit perhaps imperfect or highly intermittent. The exploitation of this approach is still at a relatively early stage within climate science and dynamics, in which the climate system is regarded as a hierarchy of many coupled sub-systems with complex nonlinear feedbacks and forcings. The possibility of synchronization between climate oscillations (global or local) and a predictable external forcing raises important questions of how models of such phenomena can be validated and verified, since the resulting response may be relatively insensitive to the details of the model being synchronized. The use of laboratory analogues may therefore have an important role to play in the study of natural systems that can only be observed and for which controlled experiments are impossible. We go on to demonstrate that synchronization can be observed in the laboratory, even in weakly coupled fluid dynamical systems that may serve as direct analogues of the behaviour of major components of the Earth's climate system. The potential implications and observability of these effects in the long-term climate variability of the Earth is further discussed. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Regulation: A Burden in Biopharmaceutical Industry? The Case of EU-Risk Management Plans

The generation of new medicinal products is both a contributor to global economic growth and a source of valuable benefits to human health. Given their direct responsibility for public health, regulatory authorities monitor closely both the development and exploitation of the underlying technologies and the products derived from them. The manner in which such regulation is implemented can result in regulators constraining or facilitating the generation of new products. This paper will study as an example the impact of EU Risk Management Plans (EU-RMPs), which have been mandatory for the approval of new medicines since 2005, on both the industry and regulatory authorities. In interviews, the responses of those who had experience of the implementation of EU-RMPs were mixed. Although the benefits of a more structured and predictable approach to the evaluation of risk were appreciated, some respondents perceived the regulation as an excessive burden on their organisations. The exploration of factors that influence how EU-RMP regulation affects individual firms provides new insights for both regulators and managers, and demonstrates one aspect of the complexity of the process by which new medicinal products are brought to market.

Regulation: A burden in biopharmaceutical industry? The case of EU-risk management plans

The generation of new medicinal products is both a contributor to global economic growth and a source of valuable benefits to human health. Given their direct responsibility for public health, regulatory authorities monitor closely both the development and exploitation of the underlying technologies and the products derived from them. The manner in which such regulation is implemented can result in regulators constraining or facilitating the generation of new products. This paper will study as an example the impact of EU Risk Management Plans (EU-RMPs), which have been mandatory for the approval of new medicines since 2005, on both the industry and regulatory authorities. In interviews, the responses of those who had experience of the implementation of EU-RMPs were mixed. Although the benefits of a more structured and predictable approach to the evaluation of risk were appreciated, some respondents perceived the regulation as an excessive burden on their organisations. The exploration of factors that influence how EU-RMP regulation affects individual firms provides new insights for both regulators and managers, and demonstrates one aspect of the complexity of the process by which new medicinal products are brought to market. © 2010 IEEE.