Value of information in product recovery decisions: A Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question 'what is its value?' is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Characterization of the temperature sensitivity of gain and recombination mechanisms in 1.3-μm AlGaInAs MQW lasers

The potential of 1.3-μm AlGaInAs multiple quantum-well (MQW) laser diodes for uncooled operation in high-speed optical communication systems is experimentally evaluated by characterizing the temperature dependence of key parameters such as the threshold current, transparency current density, optical gain and carrier lifetime. Detailed measurements performed in the 20°C-100°C temperature range indicate a localized T0 value of 68 K at 98°C for a device with a 2.8μm ridge width and 700-μm cavity length. The transparency current density is measured for temperatures from 20°C to 60°C and found to increase at a rate of 7.7 A·cm -2 · °C-1. Optical gain characterizations show that the peak modal gain at threshold is independent of temperature, whereas the differential gain decreases linearly with temperature at a rate of 3 × 10-4 A-1·°C-1. The differential carrier lifetime is determined from electrical impedance measurements and found to decrease with temperature. From the measured carrier lifetime we derive the monomolecular (A), radiative (B), and nonradiative Auger (C) recombination coefficients and determine their temperature dependence in the 20 °C-80 °C range. Our study shows that A is temperature independent, B decreases with temperature, and C exhibits a less pronounced increase with temperature. The experimental observations are discussed and compared with theoretical predictions and measurements performed on other material systems. © 2005 IEEE.

Analysis of the mechanisms for impaired high-temperature, high-speed performance of 1.3 μm InGaAsP lasers

In this paper, the static and dynamic performance of multi quantum-well (MQW) 1.3 μm InGaAsP Fabry Perot lasers is assessed experimentally and theoretically to identify the mechanisms responsible for impaired high speed performance at elevated temperature. Initially, threshold currents and spontaneous emission spectra are characterized for a range of temperatures from room temperature to 85 °C to indicate a significant increase in non-radiative current contributions. Preliminary estimates are made for the contributions of leakage and Auger recombination rates, found from the dependence of integrated spontaneous emission with carrier density. Drift-diffusion modelling is found to accurately predict the trend of threshold currents over temperature. Using gain modelling good agreement is found between the measured and predicted integrated spontaneous emission intensity. Gain measurements at 85 °C indicate a reduction in RIN frequency to 63% of the 25 °C value which matches well with experimental small signal performance.

Improving design quality and value in the built environment through knowledge of intangibles

Raising design quality and value in the built environment requires continuous improvement, drawing on feedback from clients or occupiers and other industry players. The challenging task for architectural and engineering designers has always been to use their intellectual knowledge to deliver both forms of benefits, tangibles and intangibles, in the built environment. Increasingly as clients demand best value for money, there is a greater need to understand the potential from intangibles, to see projects not as ends in themselves but as means to improved quality of life and wealth creation. As we begin to understand more about how - through the design of the built environment - to deliver these improvements in outcomes, clients will be better placed to expect their successful delivery from designers, and designers themselves will be better placed to provide them. This paper discusses cross-disciplinary issues about intangibles and is aimed at designers, clients, investors and entrepreneurs within the built environment. It presents some findings from a minuscule study that investigated intangible benefits in a new primary school. © 2004 IEEE.

Value roadmapping: A structured approach for early stage technology investment decisions

Deciding to invest in early stage technologies is one of the most important tasks of technology management and arguably also the most uncertain. It assumes a particular significance in the rise of technology companies in emerging economies, which have to make appropriate investment decisions. Technology managers already have a wide range of methods and tools at their disposal, but these are mostly focussed on quantitative measures such as discounted cash flow and real options techniques. However, in the early stages of technology development there seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with these techniques as there appears to be a lack of accuracy with respect to the underlying assumptions that these models require. In order to complement these models this paper will discuss an alternative approach that we call value road-mapping. By adapting roadmapping techniques the potential value streams of early stages technologies can be plotted and hence a clearer consensus based picture of the future potential of new technologies emerges. Roadmapping is a workshop-based process bringing together multifunctional perspectives, and supporting communication in particular between technical and commercial groups. The study is work in progress and is based on a growing number of cases. (c) 2006 PICMET.

Elemental estimators for the Generalized Extreme Value tail

In a companion paper (McRobie(2013) arxiv:1304.3918), a simple set of `elemental' estimators was presented for the Generalized Pareto tail parameter. Each elemental estimator: involves only three log-spacings; is absolutely unbiased for all values of the tail parameter; is location- and scale-invariant; and is valid for all sample sizes $N$, even as small as $N= 3$. It was suggested that linear combinations of such elementals could then be used to construct efficient unbiased estimators. In this paper, the analogous mathematical approach is taken to the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The resulting elemental estimators, although not absolutely unbiased, are found to have very small bias, and may thus provide a useful basis for the construction of efficient estimators.

Differentiable neural substrates for learned and described value and risk.

Studies of human decision making emerge from two dominant traditions: learning theorists [1-3] study choices in which options are evaluated on the basis of experience, whereas behavioral economists and financial decision theorists study choices in which the key decision variables are explicitly stated. Growing behavioral evidence suggests that valuation based on these different classes of information involves separable mechanisms [4-8], but the relevant neuronal substrates are unknown. This is important for understanding the all-too-common situation in which choices must be made between alternatives that involve one or another kind of information. We studied behavior and brain activity while subjects made decisions between risky financial options, in which the associated utilities were either learned or explicitly described. We show a characteristic effect in subjects' behavior when comparing information acquired from experience with that acquired from description, suggesting that these kinds of information are treated differently. This behavioral effect was reflected neurally, and we show differential sensitivity to learned and described value and risk in brain regions commonly associated with reward processing. Our data indicate that, during decision making under risk, both behavior and the neural encoding of key decision variables are strongly influenced by the manner in which value information is presented.

Optical investigations of the effect of solvent and thermal annealing on the optoelectronic properties of Poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene): poly(styrenesulfonate) films

Poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):poly(styrenesulfonate) (PEDOT:PSS) is one of the most promising conducting polymers that can be used as transparent electrode or as buffer layer for organic electronic devices. However, when used as an electrode, its conductivity has to be optimized either by the addition of solvents or by post-deposition processing. In this work, we investigate the effect of the addition of the polar solvent dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) to an aqueous PEDOT:PSS solution on its optical and electrical properties by the implementation of the Drude model for the analysis of the measured pseudo-dielectric function by Spectroscopic Ellipsometry from the near infrared to the visible-far ultraviolet spectral range. The results show that the addition of DMSO increases significantly the film conductivity, which reaches a maximum value at an optimum DMSO concentration as it has confirmed by experimentally measured conductivity values. The post-deposition thermal annealing has been found to have a smaller effect on the film conductivity. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.