16 resultados para dynamic causal modeling

em Cambridge University Engineering Department Publications Database


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The aim of this research is to provide a unified modelling-based method to help with the evaluation of organization design and change decisions. Relevant literature regarding model-driven organization design and change is described. This helps identify the requirements for a new modelling methodology. Such a methodology is developed and described. The three phases of the developed method include the following. First, the use of CIMOSA-based multi-perspective enterprise modelling to understand and capture the most enduring characteristics of process-oriented organizations and externalize various types of requirement knowledge about any target organization. Second, the use of causal loop diagrams to identify dynamic causal impacts and effects related to the issues and constraints on the organization under study. Third, the use of simulation modelling to quantify the effects of each issue in terms of organizational performance. The design and case study application of a unified modelling method based on CIMOSA (computer integrated manufacturing open systems architecture) enterprise modelling, causal loop diagrams, and simulation modelling, is explored to illustrate its potential to support systematic organization design and change. Further application of the proposed methodology in various company and industry sectors, especially in manufacturing sectors, would be helpful to illustrate complementary uses and relative benefits and drawbacks of the methodology in different types of organization. The proposed unified modelling-based method provides a systematic way of enabling key aspects of organization design and change. The case company, its relevant data, and developed models help to explore and validate the proposed method. The application of CIMOSA-based unified modelling method and integrated application of these three modelling techniques within a single solution space constitutes an advance on previous best practice. Also, the purpose and application domain of the proposed method offers an addition to knowledge. © IMechE 2009.

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This paper extends the air-gap element (AGE) to enable the modeling of flat air gaps. AGE is a macroelement originally proposed by Abdel-Razek et al.for modeling annular air gaps in electrical machines. The paper presents the theory of the new macroelement and explains its implementation within a time-stepped finite-element (FE) code. It validates the solution produced by the new macroelement by comparing it with that obtained by using an FE mesh with a discretized air gap. It then applies the model to determine the open-circuit electromotive force of an axial-flux permanent-magnet machine and compares the results with measurements.

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Monolithic multisection mode-locked semiconductor lasers with an integrated distributed Bragg reflector (DBR) have recently been demonstrated to generate stable picosecond pulses at high repetition rates suitable for optical communication systems. However, there has been very little theoretical work on understanding the physical mechanisms of the device and on optimisation of the absorber modulator design. This article presents numerical modeling of the loss modulated mode-locking process in these lasers. The model predicts most aspects experimentally observed within this type of device, and the results show the output waveform, optical spectrum, instantaneous frequency chirp, and stable operating range.

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Stone masonry spires are vulnerable to seismic loading. Computational methods are often used to predict the dynamic linear elastic response of masonry towers and spires, but this approach is only applicable until the first masonry joint begins to open, limiting the ability to predict collapse. In this paper, analytical modeling is used to investigate the uplift, rocking and collapse of stone spires. General equations for static equilibrium of the spire under lateral acceleration are first presented, and provide a reasonable lower bound for predicting collapse. The dynamic response is then considered through elastic modal analysis and rigid body rocking. Together, these methods are used to provide uplift curves and single impulse overturning collapse curves for a complete range of possible spire geometries. Results are used to evaluate the historic collapse of two specific stone spires. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

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This paper is aimed at enabling the confident use of existing model test facilities for ultra deepwater application without having to compromise on the widely accepted range of scales currently used by the floating production industry. Passive line truncation has traditionally been the preferred method of creating an equivalent numerical model at reduced depth; however, these techniques tend to suffer in capturing accurately line dynamic response and so reproducing peak tensions. In an attempt to improve credibility of model test data the proposed truncation procedure sets up the truncated model, based on line dynamic response rather than quasi-static system stiffness. The upper sections of each line are modeled in detail, capturing the wave action zone and all coupling effects with the vessel. These terminate to an approximate analytical model that aims to simulate the remainder of the line. Stages 1 & 2 are used to derive a water depth truncation ratio. Here vibration decay of transverse elastic waves is assessed and it is found that below a certain length criterion, the transverse vibrational characteristics for each line are inertia driven, hence with respect to these motions the truncated model can assume a linear damper whose coefficient depends on the local line properties and vibration frequency. Stage 3 endeavors to match the individual line stiffness between the full depth and truncated models. In deepwater it is likely that taut polyester moorings will be used which are predominantly straight and have high axial stiffness that provides the principal restoring force to static and low frequency vessel motions. Consequently, it means that the natural frequencies of axial vibrations are above the typical wave frequency range allowing for a quasi-static solution. In cases of exceptionally large wave frequency vessel motions, localized curvature at the chain seabed segment and tangential skin drag on the polyester rope can increase dynamic peak tensions considerably. The focus of this paper is to develop an efficient scheme based on analytic formulation, for replicating these forces at the truncation. The paper will close with an example case study of a single mooring under extreme conditions that replicates exactly the static and dynamic characteristics of the full depth line. Copyright © 2012 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE).

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This article reports a case study application of a systematic approach to modelling complex organisations, centred on simulation modelling (SM). The approach leads to populated instances of complementary model types, in ways that systematically capture, validate and facilitate various uses of organisational understandings, knowledge and data normally distributed amongst multiple knowledge holders. The model-driven approach to decision making enables improved manufacturing responsiveness. Literature on modelling technologies relevant to manufacturing systems organisation design and change is presented, as is literature on production planning and control. This provides a rationale for the development of a new modelling methodology which combines the use of enterprise, causal loop and SM. Subsequently, this article describes how in the case of a specific manufacturing enterprise the combined modelling techniques have informed the choice of alternative production planning and control policies. An example enterprise model of a capacitor manufacturing company is illustrated as derivative causal-loop models that structure and enable the design and use of a general purpose simulation model.

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The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

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The vibration behavior of piled foundations is an important consideration in fields such as earthquake engineering, construction, machine-foundation design, offshore structures, nuclear energy, and road and rail development. This paper presents a review of the past 40 years' literature on modeling the frequency-dependent behavior of pile foundations. Beginning with the earliest model of a single pile, adapted from those for embedded footings, it charts the development of the four pile-modeling techniques: the "dynamic Winkler-foundation" approach that uses springs to represent the effect of the soil; elasticcontinuum-type formulations involving the analytical solutions for displacements due to a subsurface disk, cylinder, or other element; boundary element methods; and dynamic finite-element formulations with special nonreflecting boundaries. The modeling of pile groups involves accounting for pile-soil-pile interactions, and four such methods exist: interaction factors; complete pile models; the equivalent pier method; and periodic structure theory. Approaches for validating pile models are also explored. Copyright © 2013 by ASME.