A reason for unreason: returns-based beliefs in game theory

Players cooperate in experiments more than game theory would predict. We introduce the ‘returns-based beliefs’ approach: the expected returns of a particular strategy in proportion to total expected returns of all strategies. Using a decision analytic solution concept, Luce’s (1959) probabilistic choice model, and ‘hyperpriors’ for ambiguity in players’ cooperability, our approach explains empirical observations in various classes of games including the Prisoner’s and Traveler’s Dilemmas. Testing the closeness of fit of our model on Selten and Chmura (2008) data for completely mixed 2 × 2 games shows that with loss aversion, returns-based beliefs explain the data better than other equilibrium concepts.

Control theory and systems biology

Presenting a control-theoretic treatment of stoichiometric systems, ... local parametric sensitivity analysis, the two approaches yield identical results. ...

Classical plume theory: 1937-2010 and beyond

Developing a theoretical description of turbulent plumes, the likes of which may be seen rising above industrial chimneys, is a daunting thought. Plumes are ubiquitous on a wide range of scales in both the natural and the man-made environments. Examples that immediately come to mind are the vapour plumes above industrial smoke stacks or the ash plumes forming particle-laden clouds above an erupting volcano. However, plumes also occur where they are less visually apparent, such as the rising stream of warmair above a domestic radiator, of oil from a subsea blowout or, at a larger scale, of air above the so-called urban heat island. In many instances, not only the plume itself is of interest but also its influence on the environment as a whole through the process of entrainment. Zeldovich (1937, The asymptotic laws of freely-ascending convective flows. Zh. Eksp. Teor. Fiz., 7, 1463-1465 (in Russian)), Batchelor (1954, Heat convection and buoyancy effects in fluids. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 80, 339-358) and Morton et al. (1956, Turbulent gravitational convection from maintained and instantaneous sources. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A, 234, 1-23) laid the foundations for classical plume theory, a theoretical description that is elegant in its simplicity and yet encapsulates the complex turbulent engulfment of ambient fluid into the plume. Testament to the insight and approach developed in these early models of plumes is that the essential theory remains unchanged and is widely applied today. We describe the foundations of plume theory and link the theoretical developments with the measurements made in experiments necessary to close these models before discussing some recent developments in plume theory, including an approach which generalizes results obtained separately for the Boussinesq and the non-Boussinesq plume cases. The theory presented - despite its simplicity - has been very successful at describing and explaining the behaviour of plumes across the wide range of scales they are observed. We present solutions to the coupled set of ordinary differential equations (the plume conservation equations) that Morton et al. (1956) derived from the Navier-Stokes equations which govern fluid motion. In order to describe and contrast the bulk behaviour of rising plumes from general area sources, we present closed-form solutions to the plume conservation equations that were achieved by solving for the variation with height of Morton's non-dimensional flux parameter Γ - this single flux parameter gives a unique representation of the behaviour of steady plumes and enables a characterization of the different types of plume. We discuss advantages of solutions in this form before describing extensions to plume theory and suggesting directions for new research. © 2010 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

What is the weakest topology in which feedback stability is robust?

Mathematical theorems in control theory are only of interest in so far as their assumptions relate to practical situations. The space of systems with transfer functions in ℋ∞, for example, has many advantages mathematically, but includes large classes of non-physical systems, and one must be careful in drawing inferences from results in that setting. Similarly, the graph topology has long been known to be the weakest, or coarsest, topology in which (1) feedback stability is a robust property (i.e. preserved in small neighbourhoods) and (2) the map from open-to-closed-loop transfer functions is continuous. However, it is not known whether continuity is a necessary part of this statement, or only required for the existing proofs. It is entirely possible that the answer depends on the underlying classes of systems used. The class of systems we concern ourselves with here is the set of systems that can be approximated, in the graph topology, by real rational transfer function matrices. That is, lumped parameter models, or those distributed systems for which it makes sense to use finite element methods. This is precisely the set of systems that have continuous frequency responses in the extended complex plane. For this class, we show that there is indeed a weaker topology; in which feedback stability is robust but for which the maps from open-to-closed-loop transfer functions are not necessarily continuous. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.