Predicting the performance of an office under climate change: A study of metrics, sensitivity and zonal resolution

Climate change is expected to have significant impact on the future thermal performance of buildings. Building simulation and sensitivity analysis can be employed to predict these impacts, guiding interventions to adapt buildings to future conditions. This article explores the use of simulation to study the impact of climate change on a theoretical office building in the UK, employing a probabilistic approach. The work studies (1) appropriate performance metrics and underlying modelling assumptions, (2) sensitivity of computational results to identify key design parameters and (3) the impact of zonal resolution. The conclusions highlight the importance of assumptions in the field of electricity conversion factors, proper management of internal heat gains, and the need to use an appropriately detailed zonal resolution. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vibration of a high-altitude tethered balloon with application to climate engineering

A balloon tethered at an altitude of 20 km could deliver a particulate cloud leading to global cooling. Tethering a balloon at this altitude poses significant problems with respect to vibration and stability, especially in regions of high wind. No-one has ever proposed, yet alone launched, a balloon at an altitude of 20 km tethered to the ground. Owing to wind, the tether needs to be 23 km in length and is to be fixed to a ship at sea or on land in equatorial regions. Whilst the balloon at 20 km is subject to relatively modest wind conditions, at jet stream altitudes (10km) the tether will experience much higher wind loadings, not only because of the high wind speeds of up to 300 km / hr but also because of the high air density. A tether of circular cross section in these high winds will be subject to horizontal and downward drag forces that would bring the aerostat down. For this reason it is advantageous to consider a self-aligning tether of an aerodynamic cross section whereby it is possible to reduce the drag substantially. One disadvantage of a non-circular tether is the possibility of flutter and galloping instabilities. It is reasonably straightforward to model these phenomena for short lengths of aerofoil, but the situation becomes more complex for a 20 km tensioned tether with large deflection and curvature, variable wind speed, variable air density and variable tension. Analysis using models of infinite length are used to establish the stability at a local scale where the tension, aerodynamic and geometric properties are considered constant. Dispersion curve analysis is useful here. But for dynamics on a long-wavelength scale (several km) then a full non-linear analysis is required. This non-linear model can be used to establish the local values of tension appropriate for the dispersion analysis. This keynote presentation will give some insight into these issues.

An approach to scenario analysis of the sustainability of an industrial sector applied to clothing and textiles in the UK

Companies aiming to be 'sustainability leaders' in their sector and governments wanting to support their ambitions need a means to assess the changes required to make a significant difference in the impact of their whole sector. Previous work on scenario analysis/scenario planning demonstrates extensive developments and applications, but as yet few attempts to integrate the 'triple bottom line' concerns of sustainability into scenario planning exercises. This paper, therefore, presents a methodology for scenario analysis of large change to an entire sector. The approach includes calculation of a 'triple bottom line graphic equaliser' to allow exploration and evaluation of the trade-offs between economic, environmental and social impacts. The methodology is applied to the UK's clothing and textiles sector, and results from the study of the sector are summarised. In reflecting on the specific study, some suggestions are made about future application of a similar methodology, including a template of candidate solutions that may lead to significant reduction in impacts. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.