Gaussian process change point models

We combine Bayesian online change point detection with Gaussian processes to create a nonparametric time series model which can handle change points. The model can be used to locate change points in an online manner; and, unlike other Bayesian online change point detection algorithms, is applicable when temporal correlations in a regime are expected. We show three variations on how to apply Gaussian processes in the change point context, each with their own advantages. We present methods to reduce the computational burden of these models and demonstrate it on several real world data sets. Copyright 2010 by the author(s)/owner(s).

Information models used to manage engineering change: A review of the literature 2005-2010

Engineering change is a significant part of any product development programme. Changes can arise at many points throughout the product life-cycle, resulting in rework which can ripple through different stages of the design process. Managing change processes is thus a critical aspect of any design project, especially in complex design. Through a literature review, this paper shows the diversity of information models used by different change management methods proposed in the literature. A classification framework for organising these change management approaches is presented. The review shows an increase in the number of cross-domain models proposed to help manage changes.

Transient Ventilation Dynamics Following a Change in Strength of a Point Source of Heat

We investigate the transient ventilation flow within a confined ventilated space, with high- and low-level openings, when the strength of a low-level point source of heat is changed instantaneously. The steady-flow regime in the space involves a turbulent buoyant plume, which rises from the point source to a well-mixed warm upper layer. The steady-state height of the interface between this layer and the lower layer of exterior fluid is independent of the heat flux, but the upper layer becomes progressively warmer with heat flux. New analogue laboratory experiments of the transient adjustment between steady states identify that if the heat flux is increased, the continuing plume propagates to the top of the room forming a new, warmer layer. This layer gradually deepens, and as the turbulent plume entrains fluid from the original warm layer, the original layer is gradually depleted and disappears, and a new steady state is established. In contrast, if the source buoyancy flux is decreased, the continuing plume is cooler than the original plume, so that on reaching the interface it is of intermediate density between the original warm layer and the external fluid. The plume supplies a new intermediate layer, which gradually deepens with the continuing flow. In turn, the original upper layer becomes depleted, both as a result of being vented through the upper opening of the space, but also due to some penetrative entrainment of this layer by the plume, as the plume overshoots the interface before falling back to supply the new intermediate layer. We develop quantitative models which are in good accord with our experimental data, by combining classical plume theory with models of the penetrative entrainment for the case of a decrease in heating. Typically, we find that the effect of penetrative entrainment on the density of the intruding layer is relatively weak, provided the change in source strength is sufficiently large. However, penetrative entrainment measurably increases the rate at which the depth of the draining layer decreases. We conclude with a discussion of the importance of these results for the control of naturally ventilated spaces.

Isotropic constitutive models for metallic foams

The yield behaviour of two aluminum alloy foams (Alporas and Duocel) has been investigated for a range of axisymmetric compressive stress states. The initial yield surface has been measured, and the evolution of the yield surface has been explored for uniaxial and hydrostatic stress paths. It is found that the hydrostatic yield strength is of similar magnitude to the uniaxial yield strength. The yield surfaces are of quadratic shape in the stress space of mean stress versus effective stress, and evolve without corner formation. Two phenomenological isotropic constitutive models for the plastic behaviour are proposed. The first is based on a geometrically self-similar yield surface while the second is more complex and allows for a change in shape of the yield surface due to differential hardening along the hydrostatic and deviatoric axes. Good agreement is observed between the experimentally measured stress versus strain responses and the predictions of the models.

The role of adaptive thermal comfort in the prediction of the thermal performance of a modern mixed-mode office building in the UK under climate change

Climate change is becoming a serious issue for the construction industry, since the time scales at which climate change takes place can be expected to show a true impact on the thermal performance of buildings and HVAC systems. In predicting this future building performance by means of building simulation, the underlying assumptions regarding thermal comfort conditions and the related heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) control set points become important. This article studies the thermal performance of a reference office building with mixedmode ventilation in the UK, using static and adaptive thermal approaches, for a series of time horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). Results demonstrate the importance of the implementation of adaptive thermal comfort models, and underpin the case for its use in climate change impact studies. Adaptive thermal comfort can also be used by building designers to make buildings more resilient towards change. © 2010 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

How are internal models of unstable tasks formed?

The results of recent studies suggest that humans can form internal models that they use in a feedforward manner to compensate for both stable and unstable dynamics. To examine how internal models are formed, we performed adaptation experiments in novel dynamics, and measured the endpoint force, trajectory and EMG during learning. Analysis of reflex feedback and change of feedforward commands between consecutive trials suggested a unified model of motor learning, which can coherently unify the learning processes observed in stable and unstable dynamics and reproduce available data on motor learning. To our knowledge, this algorithm, based on the concurrent minimization of (reflex) feedback and muscle activation, is also the first nonlinear adaptive controller able to stabilize unstable dynamics.

Unified modelling in support of organization design and change

The aim of this research is to provide a unified modelling-based method to help with the evaluation of organization design and change decisions. Relevant literature regarding model-driven organization design and change is described. This helps identify the requirements for a new modelling methodology. Such a methodology is developed and described. The three phases of the developed method include the following. First, the use of CIMOSA-based multi-perspective enterprise modelling to understand and capture the most enduring characteristics of process-oriented organizations and externalize various types of requirement knowledge about any target organization. Second, the use of causal loop diagrams to identify dynamic causal impacts and effects related to the issues and constraints on the organization under study. Third, the use of simulation modelling to quantify the effects of each issue in terms of organizational performance. The design and case study application of a unified modelling method based on CIMOSA (computer integrated manufacturing open systems architecture) enterprise modelling, causal loop diagrams, and simulation modelling, is explored to illustrate its potential to support systematic organization design and change. Further application of the proposed methodology in various company and industry sectors, especially in manufacturing sectors, would be helpful to illustrate complementary uses and relative benefits and drawbacks of the methodology in different types of organization. The proposed unified modelling-based method provides a systematic way of enabling key aspects of organization design and change. The case company, its relevant data, and developed models help to explore and validate the proposed method. The application of CIMOSA-based unified modelling method and integrated application of these three modelling techniques within a single solution space constitutes an advance on previous best practice. Also, the purpose and application domain of the proposed method offers an addition to knowledge. © IMechE 2009.

No evidence for an item limit in change detection.

Change detection is a classic paradigm that has been used for decades to argue that working memory can hold no more than a fixed number of items ("item-limit models"). Recent findings force us to consider the alternative view that working memory is limited by the precision in stimulus encoding, with mean precision decreasing with increasing set size ("continuous-resource models"). Most previous studies that used the change detection paradigm have ignored effects of limited encoding precision by using highly discriminable stimuli and only large changes. We conducted two change detection experiments (orientation and color) in which change magnitudes were drawn from a wide range, including small changes. In a rigorous comparison of five models, we found no evidence of an item limit. Instead, human change detection performance was best explained by a continuous-resource model in which encoding precision is variable across items and trials even at a given set size. This model accounts for comparison errors in a principled, probabilistic manner. Our findings sharply challenge the theoretical basis for most neural studies of working memory capacity.