Probabilistic fault identification using vibration data and neural networks

Bayesian formulated neural networks are implemented using hybrid Monte Carlo method for probabilistic fault identification in cylindrical shells. Each of the 20 nominally identical cylindrical shells is divided into three substructures. Holes of (12±2) mm in diameter are introduced in each of the substructures and vibration data are measured. Modal properties and the Coordinate Modal Assurance Criterion (COMAC) are utilized to train the two modal-property-neural-networks. These COMAC are calculated by taking the natural-frequency-vector to be an additional mode. Modal energies are calculated by determining the integrals of the real and imaginary components of the frequency response functions over bandwidths of 12% of the natural frequencies. The modal energies and the Coordinate Modal Energy Assurance Criterion (COMEAC) are used to train the two frequency-response-function-neural-networks. The averages of the two sets of trained-networks (COMAC and COMEAC as well as modal properties and modal energies) form two committees of networks. The COMEAC and the COMAC are found to be better identification data than using modal properties and modal energies directly. The committee approach is observed to give lower standard deviations than the individual methods. The main advantage of the Bayesian formulation is that it gives identities of damage and their respective confidence intervals.

Implications of local lifecycle analyses and low carbon fuel standard design on gasohol transportation fuels

State and regional policies, such as low carbon fuel standards (LCFSs), increasingly mandate that transportation fuels be examined according to their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We investigate whether such policies benefit from determining fuel carbon intensities (FCIs) locally to account for variations in fuel production and to stimulate improvements in FCI. In this study, we examine the FCI of transportation fuels on a lifecycle basis within a specific state, Minnesota, and compare the results to FCIs using national averages. Using data compiled from 18 refineries over an 11-year period, we find that ethanol production is highly variable, resulting in a 42% difference between carbon intensities. Historical data suggests that lower FCIs are possible through incremental improvements in refining efficiency and the use of biomass for processing heat. Stochastic modeling of the corn ethanol FCI shows that gains in certainty due to knowledge of specific refinery inputs are overwhelmed by uncertainty in parameters external to the refiner, including impacts of fertilization and land use change. The LCA results are incorporated into multiple policy scenarios to demonstrate the effect of policy configurations on the use of alternative fuels. These results provide a contrast between volumetric mandates and LCFSs. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting surface vibration from underground railways through inhomogeneous soil

Noise and vibration from underground railways is a major source of disturbance to inhabitants near subways. To help designers meet noise and vibration limits, numerical models are used to understand vibration propagation from these underground railways. However, the models commonly assume the ground is homogeneous and neglect to include local variability in the soil properties. Such simplifying assumptions add a level of uncertainty to the predictions which is not well understood. The goal of the current paper is to quantify the effect of soil inhomogeneity on surface vibration. The thin-layer method (TLM) is suggested as an efficient and accurate means of simulating vibration from underground railways in arbitrarily layered half-spaces. Stochastic variability of the soils elastic modulus is introduced using a KL expansion; the modulus is assumed to have a log-normal distribution and a modified exponential covariance kernel. The effect of horizontal soil variability is investigated by comparing the stochastic results for soils varied only in the vertical direction to soils with 2D variability. Results suggest that local soil inhomogeneity can significantly affect surface velocity predictions; 90 percent confidence intervals showing 8 dB averages and peak values up to 12 dB are computed. This is a significant source of uncertainty and should be considered when using predictions from models assuming homogeneous soil properties. Furthermore, the effect of horizontal variability of the elastic modulus on the confidence interval appears to be negligible. This suggests that only vertical variation needs to be taken into account when modelling ground vibration from underground railways. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adapting data processing to compare model and experiment accurately: A discrete element model and magnetic resonance measurements of a 3d cylindrical fluidized bed

Discrete element modeling is being used increasingly to simulate flow in fluidized beds. These models require complex measurement techniques to provide validation for the approximations inherent in the model. This paper introduces the idea of modeling the experiment to ensure that the validation is accurate. Specifically, a 3D, cylindrical gas-fluidized bed was simulated using a discrete element model (DEM) for particle motion coupled with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to describe the flow of gas. The results for time-averaged, axial velocity during bubbling fluidization were compared with those from magnetic resonance (MR) experiments made on the bed. The DEM-CFD data were postprocessed with various methods to produce time-averaged velocity maps for comparison with the MR results, including a method which closely matched the pulse sequence and data processing procedure used in the MR experiments. The DEM-CFD results processed with the MR-type time-averaging closely matched experimental MR results, validating the DEM-CFD model. Analysis of different averaging procedures confirmed that MR time-averages of dynamic systems correspond to particle-weighted averaging, rather than frame-weighted averaging, and also demonstrated that the use of Gaussian slices in MR imaging of dynamic systems is valid. © 2013 American Chemical Society.

City versus national energy use: implications for urban energy policy and strategies

The global trend towards urbanization means that over half of the world's population now lives in cities. Cities use energy in different proportions to national energy use averages, typically corresponding to whether a country is industrialized or developing. Cities in industrialized countries tend to use less energy per capita than the national average while cities in developing countries use more. This paper looks at existing World Bank data in respect to urban energy consumption, the emissions inventory work done by New York City, and discusses how this data highlights the need for a focus on: energy policy for buildings in industrialized cities; masterplanning and new construction standards in developing cities; and how urban energy policy can become more effective in reducing urban greenhouse gas emissions.