Towards probabilistic performance metrics for climate change impact studies

This paper explores the current state-of-the-art in performance indicators and use of probabilistic approaches used in climate change impact studies. It presents a critical review of recent publications in this field, focussing on (1) metrics for energy use for heating and cooling, emissions, overheating and high-level performance aspects, and (2) uptake of uncertainty and risk analysis. This is followed by a case study, which is used to explore some of the contextual issues around the broader uptake of climate change impact studies in practice. The work concludes that probabilistic predictions of the impact of climate change are feasible, but only based on strict and explicitly stated assumptions. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the performance of an office under climate change: A study of metrics, sensitivity and zonal resolution

Climate change is expected to have significant impact on the future thermal performance of buildings. Building simulation and sensitivity analysis can be employed to predict these impacts, guiding interventions to adapt buildings to future conditions. This article explores the use of simulation to study the impact of climate change on a theoretical office building in the UK, employing a probabilistic approach. The work studies (1) appropriate performance metrics and underlying modelling assumptions, (2) sensitivity of computational results to identify key design parameters and (3) the impact of zonal resolution. The conclusions highlight the importance of assumptions in the field of electricity conversion factors, proper management of internal heat gains, and the need to use an appropriately detailed zonal resolution. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of adaptive thermal comfort in the prediction of the thermal performance of a modern mixed-mode office building in the UK under climate change

Climate change is becoming a serious issue for the construction industry, since the time scales at which climate change takes place can be expected to show a true impact on the thermal performance of buildings and HVAC systems. In predicting this future building performance by means of building simulation, the underlying assumptions regarding thermal comfort conditions and the related heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) control set points become important. This article studies the thermal performance of a reference office building with mixedmode ventilation in the UK, using static and adaptive thermal approaches, for a series of time horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). Results demonstrate the importance of the implementation of adaptive thermal comfort models, and underpin the case for its use in climate change impact studies. Adaptive thermal comfort can also be used by building designers to make buildings more resilient towards change. © 2010 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

Effect of urban climate on building integrated photovoltaics performance

It is generally recognized that BIPV (building integrated photovoltaics) has the potential to become a major source of renewable energy in the urban environment. The actual output of a PV module in the field is a function of orientation, total irradiance, spectral irradiance, wind speed, air temperature, soiling and various system-related losses. In urban areas, the attenuation of solar radiation due to air pollution is obvious, and the solar spectral content subsequently changes. The urban air temperature is higher than that in the surrounding countryside, and the wind speed in urban areas is usually less than that in rural areas. Three different models of PV power are used to investigate the effect of urban climate on PV performance. The results show that the dimming of solar radiation in the urban environment is the main reason for the decrease of PV module output using the climatic data of urban and rural sites in Mexico City for year 2003. The urban PV conversion efficiency is higher than that of the rural PV system because the PV module temperature in the urban areas is slightly lower than that in the rural areas in the case. The DC power output of PV seems to be underestimated if the spectral response of PV in the urban environment is not taken into account based on the urban hourly meteorological data of Sao Paulo for year 2004. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change

This article reports on the use of building performance simulation to quantify the risks that climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. Through a number of case studies the article demonstrates that any prediction of the probable thermal building performance on the long timeframes inherent in climate change comes with very large uncertainties. The same cases are used to illustrate that assessing the consequences of predicted change is problematic, since the functions that the building provides in themselves often are a moving target. The article concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictions. Further research that is needed to move to more effective discussion about risk acceptance and risk abatement for specific buildings is identified. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Building performance simulation for the management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change

This paper reports on research that uses building performance simulation and uncertainty analysis to assess the risks that projected climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. The work takes meteorological climate change predictions as a starting point, but also takes into account developments and uncertainties in technology, occupancy, intervention and renovation, and others. Four cases are studied in depth to explore the prospects of the quantification of said climate change risks. The research concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictive assumptions on the input side.

Thermal building simulation using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections

This article investigates how to use UK probabilistic climate-change projections (UKCP09) in rigorous building energy analysis. Two office buildings (deep plan and shallow plan) are used as case studies to demonstrate the application of UKCP09. Three different methods for reducing the computational demands are explored: statistical reduction (Finkelstein-Schafer [F-S] statistics), simplification using degree-day theory and the use of metamodels. The first method, which is based on an established technique, can be used as reference because it provides the most accurate information. However, it is necessary to automatically choose weather files based on F-S statistic by using computer programming language because thousands of weather files created from UKCP09 weather generator need to be processed. A combination of the second (degree-day theory) and third method (metamodels) requires only a relatively small number of simulation runs, but still provides valuable information to further implement the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The article also demonstrates how grid computing can be used to speed up the calculation for many independent EnergyPlus models by harnessing the processing power of idle desktop computers. © 2011 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

The potential for thermal energy recovery from wastewater treatment works in Southern England

There is potential to extract energy from wastewater in a number of ways, including: kinetic energy using micro-hydro systems, chemical energy through the incineration of sludge, biomass energy from the biogas produced after anaerobic sludge digestion, and thermal energy as heat. This paper considers the last option and asks how much heat could be recovered under UK climatic conditions and can this heat be used effectively by wastewater treatment plants to reduce their carbon footprint? Four wastewater treatment sites in southern England are investigated and the available heat that can be recovered at those sites is quantified. Issues relating to the environmental, economic and practical constraints on how energy can be realistically recovered and utilised are discussed .The results show there is a definite possibility for thermal energy recovery with potential savings at some sites of up to 35,000 tonnes of total long-cycle carbon equivalent (fossil fuel) emissions per year being achievable. The paper also shows that the financial feasibility of three options for using the heat (either for district heating, sludge drying or thermophilic heating in sludge digestion processes) is highly dependant upon the current shadow price of carbon. Without the inclusion of the cost of carbon, the financial feasibility is significantly limited. An environmental constraint for the allowable discharge temperature of effluent after heat-extraction was found to be the major limitation to the amount of energy available for recovery. The paper establishes the true potential of thermal energy recovery from wastewater in English conditions and the economic feasibility of reducing the carbon footprint of wastewater treatment operations using this approach.

A conceptual framework for future-proofing the energy performance of buildings

This paper presents a review undertaken to understand the concept of 'future-proofing' the energy performance of buildings. The long lifecycles of the building stock, the impacts of climate change and the requirements for low carbon development underline the need for long-term thinking from the early design stages. 'Future-proofing' is an emerging research agenda with currently no widely accepted definition amongst scholars and building professionals. In this paper, it refers to design processes that accommodate explicitly full lifecycle perspectives and energy trends and drivers by at least 2050, when selecting energy efficient measures and low carbon technologies. A knowledge map is introduced, which explores the key axes (or attributes) for achieving a 'future-proofed' energy design; namely, coverage of sustainability issues, lifecycle thinking, and accommodating risks and uncertainties that affect the energy consumption. It is concluded that further research is needed so that established building energy assessment methods are refined to better incorporate future-proofing. The study follows an interdisciplinary approach and is targeted at design teams with aspirations to achieve resilient and flexible low-energy buildings over the long-term. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Design and control of a climbing robot based on hot melt adhesion

Robust climbing in unstructured environments has been one of the long-standing challenges in robotics research. Among others, the control of large adhesion forces is still an important problem that significantly restricts the locomotion performance of climbing robots. The main contribution of this paper is to propose a novel approach to autonomous robot climbing which makes use of hot melt adhesion (HMA). The HMA material is known as an economical solution to achieve large adhesion forces, which can be varied by controlling the material temperature. For locomotion on both inclined and vertical walls, this paper investigates the basic characteristics of HMA material, and proposes a design and control of a climbing robot that uses the HMA material for attaching and detaching its body to the environment. The robot is equipped with servomotors and thermal control units to actively vary the temperature of the material, and the coordination of these components enables the robot to walk against the gravitational forces even with a relatively large body weight. A real-world platform is used to demonstrate locomotion on a vertical wall, and the experimental result shows the feasibility and overall performances of this approach. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physical connection and disconnection control based on hot melt adhesives

Physical connection and disconnection control has practical meanings for robot applications. Compared to conventional connection mechanisms, bonding involving a thermal process could provide high connection strength, high repeatability, and power-free connection maintenance, etc. In terms of disconnection, an established bond can be easily weakened with a temperature rise of the material used to form the bond. Hot melt adhesives (HMAs) are such material that can form adhesive bonds with any solid surfaces through a thermally induced solidification process. This paper proposes a novel control method for automatic connection and disconnection based on HMAs. More specifically, mathematical models are first established to describe the flowing behavior of HMAs at higher temperatures, as well as the temperature-dependent strength of an established HMA bond. These models are then validated with a specific type of HMA in a minimalistic robot setup equipped with two mechatronic devices for automated material handling. The validated models are eventually used for determining open parameters in a feedback controller for the robot to perform a pick-and-place task. Through a series of trials with different wooden and aluminum parts, we evaluate the performance of the automatic connection and disconnection methods in terms of speed, energy consumption, and robustness. © 1996-2012 IEEE.