Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Development and evaluation of an alternative method for processing elastic-lidar return signals

A method for interpreting elastic-lidar return signals in heavily-polluted atmospheres is presented. It is based on an equation derived directly from the classic lidar equation, which highlights gradients of the atmospheric backscattering properties along the laser optical path. The method is evaluated by comparing its results with those obtained with the differential absorption technique. The results were obtained from locating and ranging measurements in pollutant plumes and contaminated environments around central México. © World Scientific Publishing Company.

Design, development, and evaluation of a simple blackbody radiative source

This paper presents a simple design and the testing of a blackbody prototype. The physical properties and geometry of the cavity produce a radiator or blackbody with an emissivity greater than 0.99. The prototype has the advantages of having a traditional spherical cavity made of alumina refractory cement and a radiative emission very close to that of an ideal blackbody. The prototype can be used as a calibration standard for other radiation measuring instruments or sensors. Experimental measurements of radiant flux of the prototype measured with a calibrated infrared radiometer and a wide spectrum radiometer are also presented. The prototype is easy to construct and the material required are available to most research centers, laboratories, industries, and universities. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

A global model for effective use and evaluation of e-learning in health.

Healthcare systems worldwide face a wide range of challenges, including demographic change, rising drug and medical technology costs, and persistent and widening health inequalities both within and between countries. Simultaneously, issues such as professional silos, static medical curricula, and perceptions of "information overload" have made it difficult for medical training and continued professional development (CPD) to adapt to the changing needs of healthcare professionals in increasingly patient-centered, collaborative, and/or remote delivery contexts. In response to these challenges, increasing numbers of medical education and CPD programs have adopted e-learning approaches, which have been shown to provide flexible, low-cost, user-centered, and easily updated learning. The effectiveness of e-learning varies from context to context, however, and has also been shown to make considerable demands on users' motivation and "digital literacy" and on providing institutions. Consequently, there is a need to evaluate the effectiveness of e-learning in healthcare as part of ongoing quality improvement efforts. This article outlines the key issues for developing successful models for analyzing e-health learning.