A Stochastic Model for Electron Multiplication Charge-Coupled Devices - From Theory to Practice

Electron multiplication charge-coupled devices (EMCCD) are widely used for photon counting experiments and measurements of low intensity light sources, and are extensively employed in biological fluorescence imaging applications. These devices have a complex statistical behaviour that is often not fully considered in the analysis of EMCCD data. Robust and optimal analysis of EMCCD images requires an understanding of their noise properties, in particular to exploit fully the advantages of Bayesian and maximum-likelihood analysis techniques, whose value is increasingly recognised in biological imaging for obtaining robust quantitative measurements from challenging data. To improve our own EMCCD analysis and as an effort to aid that of the wider bioimaging community, we present, explain and discuss a detailed physical model for EMCCD noise properties, giving a likelihood function for image counts in each pixel for a given incident intensity, and we explain how to measure the parameters for this model from various calibration images. © 2013 Hirsch et al.

Visualising a stochastic model of California Water Resources Using Sankey Diagrams

This paper describes a novel approach to the analysis of supply and demand of water in California. A stochastic model is developed to assess the future supply of and demand for water resources in California. The results are presented in the form of a Sankey diagram where present and stochastically-varying future fluxes of water in California and its sub-regions are traced from source to services by mapping the various transformations of water from when it is first made available for use, through its treatment, recycling and reuse, to its eventual loss in a variety of sinks. This helps to highlight the connections of water with energy and land resources, including the amount of energy used to pump and treat water, the amount of water used for energy production, and the land resources that create a water demand to produce crops for food. By mapping water in this way, policy-makers can more easily understand the competing uses of water, through the identification of the services it delivers (e.g. sanitation, food production, landscaping), the potential opportunities for improving themanagement of the resource and the connections with other resources which are often overlooked in a traditional sector-based management strategy. This paper focuses on a Sankey diagram for water, but the ultimate aim is the visualisation of linked resource futures through inter-connected Sankey diagrams for energy, land and water, tracking changes from the basic resources for all three, their transformations, and the final services they provide.

Transient thermal analysis of power devices based on Fourier-series thermal model

A new thermal model based on Fourier series expansion method has been presented for dynamic thermal analysis on power devices. The thermal model based on the Fourier series method has been programmed in MATLAB SIMULINK and integrated with a physics-based electrical model previously reported. The model was verified for accuracy using a two-dimensional Fourier model and a two-dimensional finite difference model for comparison. To validate this thermal model, experiments using a 600V 50A IGBT module switching an inductive load, has been completed under high frequency operation. The result of the thermal measurement shows an excellent match with the simulated temperature variations and temperature time-response within the power module. ©2008 IEEE.

Opt-out options in new product co-development partnerships

We study three contractual arrangements—co-development, licensing, and co-development with opt-out options—for the joint development of new products between a small and financially constrained innovator firm and a large technology company, as in the case of a biotech innovator and a major pharma company. We formulate our arguments in the context of a two-stage model, characterized by technical risk and stochastically changing cost and revenue projections. The model captures the main disadvantages of traditional co-development and licensing arrangements: in co-development the small firm runs a risk of running out of capital as future costs rise, while licensing for milestone and royalty (M&R) payments, which eliminates the latter risk, introduces inefficiency, as profitable projects might be abandoned. Counter to intuition we show that the biotech's payoff in a licensing contract is not monotonically increasing in the M&R terms. We also show that an option clause in a co-development contract that gives the small firm the right but not the obligation to opt out of co-development and into a pre-agreed licensing arrangement avoids the problems associated with fully committed co-development or licensing: the probability that the small firm will run out of capital is greatly reduced or completely eliminated and profitable projects are never abandoned.

Paradoxical evidence integration in rapid decision processes

Decisions about noisy stimuli require evidence integration over time. Traditionally, evidence integration and decision making are described as a one-stage process: a decision is made when evidence for the presence of a stimulus crosses a threshold. Here, we show that one-stage models cannot explain psychophysical experiments on feature fusion, where two visual stimuli are presented in rapid succession. Paradoxically, the second stimulus biases decisions more strongly than the first one, contrary to predictions of one-stage models and intuition. We present a two-stage model where sensory information is integrated and buffered before it is fed into a drift diffusion process. The model is tested in a series of psychophysical experiments and explains both accuracy and reaction time distributions. © 2012 Rüter et al.

The influence of turbine stator well coolant flow rate and passage configuration on cooling effectiveness

Market competitiveness for aero engine power plant dictates that improvements in engine performance and reliability are guaranteed a priori by manufacturers. The requirement to accurately predict the life of engine components makes exacting demands of the internal air system, which must provide effective cooling over the engine duty cycle with the minimum consumption of compressor section air. Tests have been conducted at the University of Sussex using a turbine test facility which comprises a two stage turbine with an individual stage pressure ratio of 1.7:1. Main annulus air is supplied by an adapted Rolls-Royce Dart compressor at up to 440 K and 4.8 kg s-1. Cooling flow rates ranging from 0.71 to 1.46 Cw, ent, a disc entrainment parameter, have been used to allow ingress or egress dominated stator well flow conditions. The mechanical design of the test section allows internal cooling geometry to be rapidly re-configured, allowing the effect of jet momentum and coolant trajectory to be investigated. An important facet to this investigation is the use of CFD to model and analyse the flow structures associated with the cavity conditions tested, as well as to inform the design of cooling path geometry. This paper reports on the effectiveness of stator well coolant flow rate and delivery configurations using experimental data and also CFD analysis to better quantify the effect of stator well flow distribution on component temperatures. Copyright © 2011 by Rolls-Royce plc.

The Silent Period of Evidence Integration in Fast Decision Making

In a typical experiment on decision making, one out of two possible stimuli is displayed and observers decide which one was presented. Recently, Stanford and colleagues (2010) introduced a new variant of this classical one-stimulus presentation paradigm to investigate the speed of decision making. They found evidence for "perceptual decision making in less than 30 ms". Here, we extended this one-stimulus compelled-response paradigm to a two-stimulus compelled-response paradigm in which a vernier was followed immediately by a second vernier with opposite offset direction. The two verniers and their offsets fuse. Only one vernier is perceived. When observers are asked to indicate the offset direction of the fused vernier, the offset of the second vernier dominates perception. Even for long vernier durations, the second vernier dominates decisions indicating that decision making can take substantial time. In accordance with previous studies, we suggest that our results are best explained with a two-stage model of decision making where a leaky evidence integration stage precedes a race-to-threshold process. © 2013 Rüter et al.

Numerical study of soil heterogeneity effects on contaminant transport in unsaturated soil (model development and validation)

The movement of chemicals through soil to groundwater is a major cause of degradation of water resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. The study of the effects of different factors involved in transport phenomena can provide valuable information to find the best remediation approaches. Numerical models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing solute transport processes in soils and groundwater. This article presents the development of a stochastic finite element model for the simulation of contaminant transport through soils with the main focus being on the incorporation of the effects of soil heterogeneity in the model. The governing equations of contaminant transport are presented. The mathematical framework and the numerical implementation of the model are described. The comparison of the results obtained from the developed stochastic model with those obtained from a deterministic method and some experimental results shows that the stochastic model is capable of predicting the transport of solutes in unsaturated soil with higher accuracy than deterministic one. The importance of the consideration of the effects of soil heterogeneity on contaminant fate is highlighted through a sensitivity analysis regarding the variance of saturated hydraulic conductivity as an index of soil heterogeneity. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dopamine and performance in a reinforcement learning task: evidence from Parkinson's disease.

The role dopamine plays in decision-making has important theoretical, empirical and clinical implications. Here, we examined its precise contribution by exploiting the lesion deficit model afforded by Parkinson's disease. We studied patients in a two-stage reinforcement learning task, while they were ON and OFF dopamine replacement medication. Contrary to expectation, we found that dopaminergic drug state (ON or OFF) did not impact learning. Instead, the critical factor was drug state during the performance phase, with patients ON medication choosing correctly significantly more frequently than those OFF medication. This effect was independent of drug state during initial learning and appears to reflect a facilitation of generalization for learnt information. This inference is bolstered by our observation that neural activity in nucleus accumbens and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, measured during simultaneously acquired functional magnetic resonance imaging, represented learnt stimulus values during performance. This effect was expressed solely during the ON state with activity in these regions correlating with better performance. Our data indicate that dopamine modulation of nucleus accumbens and ventromedial prefrontal cortex exerts a specific effect on choice behaviour distinct from pure learning. The findings are in keeping with the substantial other evidence that certain aspects of learning are unaffected by dopamine lesions or depletion, and that dopamine plays a key role in performance that may be distinct from its role in learning.