The dynamics of industrial emergence

The need to stimulate, identify and nurture new industries is a prominent challenge in advanced economies. While basic science represents a valuable source of new ideas and opportunities, it can often take decades before this science finally finds application in the market. While numerous studies have to date focused on aspects of industrial evolution, (e.g. innovation, internationalisation, new product introduction, technological lifecycles and emerging technologies), far fewer have focused on technology-based industrial emergence. It is clear that if assistance is to be provided to firms and industrial policymakers attempting to navigate industrial emergence then we need an improved understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of this phenomenon. Accordingly, this paper reviews published work from a range of disparate disciplines - evolutionary theory, social construction of technology (SCOT), complexity science, industrial dynamics and technology management - to identify these dynamics. Through this review we conceptualise industrial emergence as a co-evolutionary process in which nonlinear dynamics operate. Industrial emergence is sensitive to the initial availability of resources and the market applications, with growth dependent on the supply-demand coupling, agents' actions to reduce uncertainty and catalytic events. Through synthesizing these key dynamics we go on to propose a conceptual model for industrial emergence. © 2010 IEEE.

Reducing energy demand: what are the practical limits?

Concern over the global energy system, whether driven by climate change, national security, or fears of shortage, is being discussed widely and in every arena but with a bias toward energy supply options. While demand reduction is often mentioned in passing, it is rarely a priority for implementation, whether through policy or through the search for innovation. This paper aims to draw attention to the opportunity for major reduction in energy demand, by presenting an analysis of how much of current global energy demand could be avoided. Previous work led to a "map" of global energy use that traces the flow of energy from primary sources (fuels or renewable sources), through fuel refinery, electricity generation, and end-use conversion devices, to passive systems and the delivery of final energy services (transport, illumination, and sustenance). The key passive systems are presented here and analyzed through simple engineering models with scalar equations using data based on current global practice. Physically credible options for change to key design parameters are identified and used to predict the energy savings possible for each system. The result demonstrates that 73% of global energy use could be saved by practically achievable design changes to passive systems. This reduction could be increased by further efficiency improvements in conversion devices. A list of the solutions required to achieve these savings is provided.

Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.

Implications of local lifecycle analyses and low carbon fuel standard design on gasohol transportation fuels

State and regional policies, such as low carbon fuel standards (LCFSs), increasingly mandate that transportation fuels be examined according to their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We investigate whether such policies benefit from determining fuel carbon intensities (FCIs) locally to account for variations in fuel production and to stimulate improvements in FCI. In this study, we examine the FCI of transportation fuels on a lifecycle basis within a specific state, Minnesota, and compare the results to FCIs using national averages. Using data compiled from 18 refineries over an 11-year period, we find that ethanol production is highly variable, resulting in a 42% difference between carbon intensities. Historical data suggests that lower FCIs are possible through incremental improvements in refining efficiency and the use of biomass for processing heat. Stochastic modeling of the corn ethanol FCI shows that gains in certainty due to knowledge of specific refinery inputs are overwhelmed by uncertainty in parameters external to the refiner, including impacts of fertilization and land use change. The LCA results are incorporated into multiple policy scenarios to demonstrate the effect of policy configurations on the use of alternative fuels. These results provide a contrast between volumetric mandates and LCFSs. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Exploring geographical dispersion in Thailand-based food supply chain (FSC)

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the key influential factors and their implications on food supply chain (FSC) location decisions from a Thailand-based manufacturer's view. Design/methodology/approach: In total, 21 case studies were conducted with eight Thailand-based food manufacturers. In each case, key influential factors were observed along with their implications on upstream and downstream FSC location decisions. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and documentations. Data reduction and data display in tables were used to help data analysis of the case studies. Findings: This exploratory research found that, in the food industry, FSC geographical dispersion pattern could be determined by four factors: perishability, value density, economic-political forces, and technological forces. Technological forces were found as an enabler for FSC geographical dispersion whereas the other three factors could be both barriers and enablers. The implications of these four influential factors drive FSC towards four key patterns of FSC geographical dispersion: local supply chain (SC), supply-proximity SC, market-proximity SC, and international SC. Additionally, the strategy of the firm was found to also be an influential factor in determining FSC geographical dispersion. Research limitations/implications: Despite conducting 21 cases, the findings in this research are based on a relatively small sample, given the large size of the industry. More case evidence from a broader range of food product market and supply items, particularly ones that have significantly different patterns of FSC geographical dispersions would have been insightful. The consideration of additional influential factors such as labour movement between developing countries, currency fluctuations and labour costs, would also enrich the framework as well as improve the quality and validity of the research findings. The different strategies employed by the case companies and their implications on FSC location decisions should also be further investigated along with cases outside Thailand, to provide a more comprehensive view of FSC geographical location decisions. Practical implications: This paper provides insights how FSC is geographically located in both supply-side and demand-side from a manufacturing firm's view. The findings can also provide SC managers and researchers a better understanding of their FSCs. Originality/value: This research bridges the existing gap in the literature, explaining the geographical dispersion of SC particularly in the food industry where the characteristics are very specific, by exploring the internationalization ability of Thailand-based FSC and generalizing the key influential factors - perishability (lead time), value density, economic-political forces, market opportunities, and technological advancements. Four key patterns of FSC internationalization emerged from the case studies. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

The use of energy in China: Tracing the flow of energy from primary source to demand drivers

We present a map of the transformation of energy in China as a Sankey diagram. After a review of previous work, and a statement of methodology, our main work has been the identification, evaluation, and treatment of appropriate data sources. This data is used to construct the Sankey diagram, in which flows of energy are traced from energy sources through end-use conversion devices, passive systems and final services to demand drivers. The resulting diagram provides a convenient and clear snapshot of existing energy transformations in China which can usefully be compared with a similar global analysis and which emphasises the potential for improvements in energy efficiency in 'passive systems'. More broadly, it gives a basis for examining and communicating future energy scenarios, including changes to demand, changes to the supply mix, changes in efficiency and alternative provision of existing services. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Managing water resources and their connection to land and energy

Effective management is a key to ensuring the current and future sustainability of land, water and energy resources. Identifying the complexities of such management is not an easy task, especially since past studies have focussed on studying these resources in isolation from one another. However, with rapid population growth and an increase in the awareness of a potential change in climatic conditions that may affect the demand for and supply of food, water and energy, there has been a growing need to integrate the planning decisions relating to these three resources. The paper shows the visualisation of linked resources by drawing a set of interconnected Sankey diagrams for energy, water and land. These track the changes from basic resource (e.g. coal, surface water, groundwater and cropland) through transformations (e.g. fuel refining and desalination) to final services (e.g. sustenance, hygiene and transportation). The focus here is on the water analysis aspects of the tool, which uses California as a detailed case study. The movement of water in California is traced from its source to its services by mapping the different transformations of water from when it becomes available, through its use, to further treatment, to final sinks (including recycling and reuse of that resource). The connections that water has with energy and land resources for the state of California are highlighted. This includes the amount of energy used to pump and treat water, and the amount of water used for energy production and the land resources which create a water demand to produce crops for food. By mapping water in this way, policy-makers and resource managers can more easily understand the competing uses of water (environment, agriculture and urban use) through the identification of the services it delivers (e.g. sanitation, agriculture, landscaping), the potential opportunities for improving the management of the resource (e.g. building new desalination plants, reducing the demand for services), and the connections with other resources which are often overlooked in a traditional sector-based management strategy.

The incentives for supply chain collaboration to improve material efficiency in the use of steel: An analysis using input output techniques

In the face of increasing demand and limited emission reduction opportunities, the steel industry will have to look beyond its process emissions to bear its share of emission reduction targets. One option is to improve material efficiency - reducing the amount of metal required to meet services. In this context, the purpose of this paper is to explore why opportunities to improve material efficiency through upstream measures such as yield improvement and lightweighting might remain underexploited by industry. Established input-output techniques are applied to the GTAP 7 multi-regional input-output model to quantify the incentives for companies in key steel-using sectors (such as property developers and automotive companies) to seek opportunities to improve material efficiency in their upstream supply chains under different short-run carbon price scenarios. Because of the underlying assumptions, the incentives are interpreted as overestimates. The principal result of the paper is that these generous estimates of the incentives for material efficiency caused by a carbon price are offset by the disincentives to material efficiency caused by labour taxes. Reliance on a carbon price alone to deliver material efficiency would therefore be misguided and additional policy interventions to support material efficiency should be considered. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Drop speeds from drop-on-demand ink-jet print heads

Measured drop speeds from a range of industrial drop-on-demand (DoD) ink-jet print head designs scale with the predictions of very simple physical models and results of numerical simulations. The main drop/jet speeds at a specified stand-off depend on fluid properties, nozzle exit diameter, and print head drive amplitude for fixed waveform timescales. Drop speeds from the Xaar, Spectra Dimatix, and MicroFab DoD print heads tested with (i) Newtonian, (ii) weakly elastic, and (iii) highly shear-thinning fluids all show a characteristic linear rise with drive voltage (setting) above an apparent threshold drive voltage. Jetting, simple modeling approaches, and numerical simulations of Newtonian fluids over the typical DoD printing range of surface tensions and viscosities were studied to determine how this threshold drive value and the slope of the characteristic linear rise depend on these fluid properties and nozzle exit area. The final speed is inversely proportional to the nozzle exit area, as expected from volume conservation. These results should assist specialist users in the development and optimization of DoD applications and print head design. For a given density, the drive threshold is determined primarily by viscosity, and the constant of proportionality k linking speed with drive above a drive threshold becomes independent of viscosity and surface tension for more viscous DoD fluid jetting. © 2013 Society for Imaging Science and Technology.