Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability

We quantify the conditions that might trigger wide spread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to support energy policy. Empirical review shows that early adopters are heterogeneous motivated by financial benefits, environmental appeal, new technology, and vehicle reliability. A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model is used to assess consumer heterogeneity for early and mass market adopters. For early adopters full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are competitive but unable to surpass diesels or hybrids due to purchase price premium and lack of charging availability. For mass adoption, simulations indicate that if the purchase price premium of a BEV closes to within 20% of an in-class internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, combined with a 60% increase in refuelling availability relative to the incumbent system, BEVs become competitive. But this depends on a mass market that values the fuel economy and CO2 reduction benefits associated with BEVs. We also find that the largest influence on early adoption is financial benefit rather than pro-environmental behaviour suggesting that AFVs should be marketed by appealing to economic benefits combined with pro-environmental behaviour to motivate adoption. Monte Carlo simulations combined with scenarios can give insight into diffusion dynamics for other energy demand-side technologies. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

The user-value of rural electrification: An analysis and adoption of existing models and theories

User-value is a determining factor for product acceptance in product design. Research on rural electrification to date, however, does not draw sufficient attention to the importance of user-value with regard to the overall success of a project. This is evident from the analysis of project reports and applicable indicators from agencies active in the sector. Learning from the design, psychology and sociology literatures, it is important that rural electrification projects incorporate the value perception of the end-user and extend their success beyond the commonly used criteria of financial value, the appropriateness of the technology, capacity building and technology uptake. Creating value for the end-user is particularly important for project acceptance and the sustainability of a scheme once it has been handed over to the local community. In this research paper, existing theories and models of value-theory are transposed and applied to community operated rural electrification schemes and a user-value framework is developed. Furthermore, the importance of value to the end-user is clarified. Current literature on product design reveals that user-value has different properties, many of which are applicable to rural electrification. Five value pillars and their sub-categories important for the users of rural electrification projects are identified, namely: functional; social significance; epistemic; emotional; and cultural values. These pillars provide the main structure for the conceptual framework developed in this research paper. It is proposed that by targeting the values of the end-user, the key factors of user-value applicable to rural electrification projects will be identified and the sustainability of the project will be better ensured. © 2014 The Authors.